Brexit, good or bad idea?

The Daily Journalist community opinion.

Well, it’s official! England voted out of the Euro-zone. A new era begins for the 27 countries that comprise the Eurozone, as the European heavy weight leaves the scene. 

1)      Why did England leave the Eurozone? Did the English view Merkel and Hollande’s as Europe’s sole dictators and decision makers?

2)      Do you agree with England’s departure or disagree?

3)      Now that Brexit is a reality, will other European countries adopt a similar referendum to likewise leave the Eurozone?

4)      Will Europe boil bad blood with England after Brexit?

5)      What are a few consequences of leaving the Euro-zone for England, and Europe?

6)      How will this affect China, and The US?

7)      What would happen to the Euro-zone if France under Le Penn also exited Europe? 

8) Is this affect trade worldwide?

Sebastian Sarbu.

(He is a military analyst and vice-president of National Academy of Security and Defense Planning. Member of American Diplomatic Mission for International Relations)

“I agree with Brexit. The European Union should be able to revive a new policy to reform its institutions.
UK has not agreed with the immigration policy, and also with the economic dependence of the EU. The independence spirit of Great Britain is a conservatory value, one that was successfully implemented because the Britons are very nationalistic and proud people and sometimes national values are more important than other values.

The EU is a bureaucracy. It was an anticipated fact that the risk for the European Union’s success involved the heterogeneity of his construction, of policy and national development of each state member. Germany and France want to assume the EU project and represent their oligarchy. Germany try to exploit the opportunity of Brexit, in the advantage of implementing its own leadership.

Germany wants to impose the older policy of cession of national sovereignty from other state members, like Visegrad. The White House recognized publicly that the European Union should be reformed. In my opinion, it is not dangerous or threat for Europe’s military security.  However, it might be dangerous for the economy, and social security and the solution does not look good.”

John Mariotti.

(He as spoken to thousands of people in the business, professional and university audiences in the US and Europe; he hosted a one-hour talk-radio show on the North American Broadcasting Network, (The Life of Business & the Business of Life); founded & moderated, The Reunion Conference, an annual roundtable/think-tank for 16 years)

“Yes, I agree with Brexit. Because a majority of Brits want it. It’s their decision and they will live with the consequences.

However, UK was a late & reluctant member at best, and doesn’t like taking orders from the continental European group (headed by Germany). No surprise.

It’s not up to me–or Barack Obama. Most people who comment (unless they are Brits) don’t have enough first hand knowledge for an informed opinion.  After the initial shock wears off, life will go on.

The much bigger issue is how Europe is being invaded and taken over by Muslim hordes from Africa and the Middle East–and what to do about that.

That’s at the heart of Brexit–and that is a very big deal (problem).”

Ivan Eland.

(He is Senior Fellow and Director of the Center on Peace & Liberty at the Independent Institute)

“1) Mainly, U.K. voters were angry about the perceived taking of British jobs and other perceived dislocations caused by inflowing immigrants. The British elites probably think that France and Germany have too much power in the EU, but they were largely for staying in.

2) Britain should do what it needs to do, but the long-term ll-effects on Britain, the EU, and the world economies have been overstated. Commercial relationships will reorder, and Britain may be better off in the long-term outside the EU’s stifling bureaucracy.

3) Brexit could have a domino effect. Other nations may be spurred to hold referendums. The block could unravel into a rump organization, but free commerce could continue under other arrangements without the massive EU bureaucracy.

4) Since nations recognize the benefits of free commerce, there will be an incentive to get past any ill-feelings and restructure commercial relationships.

5&6) There will be short-term turmoil in world markets, but since Britain is the fifth largest economy in the world, it will all be sorted out and Britain will still be prosperous in the world economy.

7) Since France and Germany started what became the EU and still drive it, this development would probably kill the EU as we know it. But Europe might be better off ditching the overbuilt EU and euro currency and going back to a free trade area. The euro currency has always been questionable because there is one currency and many national fiscal policies.

8) It will affect world trade and markets in the short term, but in the long term, trade relations will reorder and life will continue.”

Peter D. Rosenstein.

(He is a non-profit executive, journalist and Democratic and community activist. His background includes teaching; serving as Coordinator of Local Government for the City of New York; working in the Carter Administration; and Vice-chair of the Board of Trustees of the University of the District of Columbia)

“1)      Why did England leave the Eurozone? Did the English view Merkel and Hollande’s as Europe’s sole dictators and decision makers?

England left the Eurozone for a number of reasons but I believe the greatest impetus of those who voted to leave was fear of immigrants and anger that they weren’t doing as well economically as they thought they should be doing. Like in many countries there is a large gap in income between those at the top and those at the bottom. In many ways it was a protest vote and most people didn’t understand the consequences of their vote. They thought that voting for nationalism was a good thing for them. I don’t think the average voter in the UK did this as a vote against Merkel or Hollande- most voters most likely don’t even know who they are. This was an irrational vote and we are now seeing that there is a large segment of the population that is already showing remorse over it.

2)      Do you agree with England’s departure or disagree?

I think it makes no sense at all. One can’t turn back the clock- like it or not we are in a global economy and just retreating to your own shores won’t help. Donald Trump is proposing that in the US with his America First campaign and I believe Americans will in the end defeat him by a large margin and reject his anti-immigrant, racist, sexist views.

3)      Now that Brexit is a reality, will other European countries adopt a similar referendum to likewise leave the Eurozone?

I would question the premise of this. The vote on Brexit was simply a referendum and the government doesn’t have to follow thru with it. The remorse over the vote will give many in government, both those for and against it, reason to hesitate. I wouldn’t be surprised if there was a second vote at some time before the UK actually leaves the Eurozone.

4)      Will Europe boil bad blood with England after Brexit?

I think there will definitely be some bad blood and what that will imply is yet to be seen. If the UK actually goes through with this it may be seen in various ways including tariffs on UK goods etc.

5)      What are a few consequences of leaving the Euro-zone for England, and Europe?

If the UK goes through with this they may find Ireland and Scotland have votes to leave the UK and try to remain in the Eurozone. The young people of the UK, who overwhelmingly voted to stay, will find travel restrictions and other impediments to working in the rest of Europe. Trade agreements will have to rewritten, UK workers in the Eurozone and the Eurozone workers in the UK may find problems with their jobs. Obviously the precipitous drop in the pound will impact those in the UK who want to travel and impact imports coming into the country.

6)      How will this affect China, and The US?

I am not sure how it will impact China as I don’t know the level of trade they have with the UK or the Eurozone but clearly any trade agreements they have will have to be rewritten. As to the US with the rise in the dollar it may hurt American companies selling to the UK or other countries- trade agreements will have to be rewritten and the American Secretary of State is already in the UK meeting to talk about this. In the long run if Brexit is carried out, it might be good for the United States as US bonds and other investments will look even safer to the rest of the world.

7)      What would happen to the Euro-zone if France under Le Penn also exited Europe? 

I don’t know the answer to this but I think looking at the results of the Brexit vote in the UK, at the loss of billions of dollars in the UK and how it has hurt the average person, should give the French pause before they do the same thing.

8)      Is this affect trade worldwide?

In the short term it will hurt trade but if it remains new trade agreements will be written and trade will continue – the initial problem will be for stock markets around the world who respond to uncertainty in a negative way. Workers may lose jobs and companies could be hurt until things are clearer.”

Claude Forthomme.

( Senior Editor of Impakter Magazine. Passionate traveller (80 countries+) 25 years experience in United Nations: project evaluation specialist; FAO Director for Europe/Central Asia)

“Brexit is a historic disaster and the 17 million Brits who voted for it were clearly misled by a series of populist, demagogic politicians playing on people’s fears of immigrants and promising to “restore sovereignty”, foremost among them UKIP’s Nigel Farage and the ex-mayor of London, Boris Johnson – both men more intent on advancing their own political career than on defending their country and preserving the British place in the world.

Brexit is bad for the UK economically and politically. The British pound immediately collapsed and the City of London went into a panic. The likelihood of Scotland leaving the UK in order to remain in the European Union suddenly looked very high, and should it happen, its example could be followed by Northern Ireland.

So expect Great Britain to become “little England”.

But Brexit is bad for the EU too: a domino effect is to be feared, especially in France under the chauvinistic impulse of Marine Le Pen, the National Front’s secretary, and in the Netherlands, under Geert Wilder’s Party for Freedom. Other countries who could jump on the bandwagon of referendums are Hungary and Poland.

Referendums, instead of giving voice to the people in a democratic way, have become the tool of choice of populist parties. Hungary’s Orban whose dictatorial manner is causing anxiety across Europe has already announced he’s going to set up a referendum this coming September on the question of refugees, “since Europe won’t deal with them”.

We are entering in a very dangerous phase in Europe, with liberal values increasingly decried, and that should be a matter of concern to America – after all, Europe was (and is) America’s best friend and top ally, and a defender of democratic values across the world.

In fact, for that reason alone – as European values of social justice (including towards refugees) are weakened, Brexit rings an alarm for the whole world, ushering in a period of intolerance, hatred of others and egoism.

That is why Brexit is truly a historic disaster, a step back in time, to that dark period in the 1930s, when, under the mantle of the Big Depression, countries closed in on themselves and Hitler rose on a wave of nationalism, exploiting a desire for revenge for the defeat Germany had suffered in the First World War.  This is the kind of feelings Brexit, a highly emotional vote, has be riding on.”

“1)   Why did England leave the Eurozone? Did the English view Merkel and Hollande’s as Europe’s sole dictators and decision makers?

‘Let’s be clear and honest since the beginning, England left the Eurozone for one major reason which is immigration. I am not talking about  racism, but English people who supported the Brexit, publicly said in all TVs; Presses and mass media around the world that they can’t bear anymore the massive waves of immigrants in their country. Nevertheless, a recent study by the Deutsche Bank showed that migration actually hasn’t harmed workers in the UK. The second minor reason of leaving the Eurozone (in my personal view)is to restore the sovereignty of the kingdom and to be far away from the directives of Brussels. I am not very convinced about the second reason, declared by many British leaders and citizens.

It is worth recalling that German and France are the two largest Economies in the Eurozone and unlike the UK, both countries adopt the single currency. Therefore, the German chancellor and the French President have been working together since the onset of the global financial crisis to limit its impact of the crises on the Eurozone. The UK was not under the single currency regime, the reason why the most important decisions on Europe have been taken by the German and French leaders.

2)      Do you agree with England’s departure or disagree?

I strongly disagree with the exit of the UK from the Euro area. Nowadays, the Kingdom entered in an uncertain universe without any contingency plan. Even supporters of Brexit confessed that they do not have a Plan B. Otherwise, after Brexit, there is nothing prepared so far: no strategy to follow and no policy to implement.

2)      Now that Brexit is a reality, will other European countries adopt a similar referendum to likewise leave the Eurozone?

Since the announcement of the referendum vote’ results, many European leaders, mostly from the far right political and nationalists parties, asked for an exist form the Euro-area. This includes: France, Italy, Netherland, Norway and many others. However, few days after seeing the first disastrous impact of the Brexit on the UK economy and after acknowledging that supporters of the Brexit did not have yet a plan B, we rarely heard a recall of an Exit in one of the countries cited above. So in my view, no more referendums will be organized in any country in Europe.

5)      What are a few consequences of leaving the Euro-zone for England, and Europe?

So far, the UK has experienced 2 important  exits:

–          Exit from the Euroarea following referendum of June 24^th

–          Exit from the 3A rating after seeing the first impacts of the Brexit. (2 notches in one go downgrade by S&P )

In my personal view,  the UK will be facing many other scenarios in the coming weeks or months:

The first scenario will be marked by:

–          Huge movements of delocalization (industry, manufacturing and banks)

–          Massive capital outflows (already billions of Pound left the country)

–          Further currency depreciation, (the Pound is already in its lowest level (% US$) since 41 years so far).

The second scenario: the worst one will be followed by:

–          Bank failure

–          Recession (+ unemployment, weaker PPPs, inflation)

–          Systemic crisis

The Bank of England could intervene by injecting money and launching new sophisticated easing programs.

Finally, the catastrophic scenario is :

The spread of the UK crisis in Europe and to the world to become a global financial crisis. It is worth mentioning that following Brexit, the IMF announced on June 29^th  that it will lower growth forecast for German economy. I think that the revision down will also involve many other European countries, notably peripheral countries.

Another fear is the explosion of Great Britain, as Scotland wants to remain in the Euroarea while it is attached to the UK.

7)      What would happen to the Euro-zone if France under Le Penn also exited Europe? 

Despite the increasing popularity of the “National Font” leaded by Marine LePenn, the far right political party will never win the forthcoming national election and  will never get the second position. French people learned many lessons on the 2002 elections where Jean-Mari LePenn passed to the second round of the election. This was a shock to the entire France. Now, if it happen again all of us know that Marine LePenn is a supporter of Frexit and there will be a high probability that she will suggest a referendum on the subject.  If France, the second largest European country, leaves the Eurozone, then it will certainly be the end of the Union and of  its single currency.

8) Is this affect trade worldwide?

Following the Brexit, the UK is forced to rethink of new strategy with its trading partners including those in Europe. Hence, the UK has to implement new trade policy based on its  new status. This could affect the trade and could also see Britain with new trading partners in place of old European ones.”

“I think it’s a blinding flash of the obvious that the Brexit vote was a signal by the British citizens that they have had enough with the European Union (EU). This is also a vote of no confidence for David Cameron which is why he announced his resignation.

Whether the Brexit vote outcome is the right thing or not is not for us to say, just like citizens here in the US do not like criticism from non-citizens when we vote on any particular topic. But, only time will tell whether or not it was the right decision, but one thing is for sure.

The Brexit vote outcome was a result of the anger built up in the hearts and souls of the British people much like the colonists of this country did in 1776.

Taxed and forced to accept refugees that have not been vetted by British officials, but rather forced on the population by non-elected leaders in Brussels, Brexit is a modern day revolution.

It is anticipated that once the initial flap of the Brexit is realized, the British currency will stabilize. But the real question is what will happen to the rest of the EU? And, can the remaining countries survive.

Progressives from all over the globe including President Obama have voiced their displeasure with Brexit. This is because they abhor democracy and the voice of the people. To them, big government knows better and open borders is how they envision the world. Unfortunately, terrorists throughout the region get a vote and their goal is the utter destruction of the West.

The British people voted to take control of their destiny. Anyone who thinks otherwise has been asleep at the switch. It was a storm long brewing and will likely sweep across Europe causing political change in many countries. It is this change that many leaders are afraid. Their gig is up and the elites will be deposed.

On the world market scene Brexit will only be a blip on a radar screen. However, for fragile markets like China, Brexit represents uncertainty and for those in the East, uncertainty is not only risky but potentially a wake up call for their own market strategy. I predict in another twelve months, we won’t be talking about the Brexit vote or the the wave of change this decision brought to the EU. We will however be talking about the effects of refugees and their failure to assimilate, as well as the cost countries must shoulder.

For the remaining countries, this facet is what will bring them closer to the brink of economic collapse. This my friends is what we have to fear, not the vote of the majority.”