By Amer Sabaileh.
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The current atmosphere of change in the Middle East is impacting all political protagonists, from countries to various political groups. Policies and actions are being adjusted according to concerns and fears of being left out or vanishing altogether.
The arrival of the Syrian crisis to a decisive point represents a real political challenge to many countries, as the chemical weapons issue is being dealt with, Syria has begun on the path toward the negotiation of Geneva II.
The awarding of the Nobel Peace Prize to the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons for their work on the elimination of Syria’s chemical arsenal is a clear sign of the possibility of putting an end to the whole chemical weapons issue.
An end to the violence in Syria will be the next requirement to launch a political settlement. This is likely to mean the next phase in Syria will be rife with conflicts as various parties position themselves to be part of the settlement.
Regional political players may struggle to stay ahead of this dynamic period. The Iranian diplomatic transformation from extremism that resulted in sanctions, to an opening that obliges the gradual calling off of sanctions is in response to this new regional reality, and will impact on the Gulf Countries.
Saudi Arabia, for example, is trying to chase the fast moving Iranian diplomatic machine. The impact of these changes might appear soon in many places, particularly in Bahrain and Yemen.
The road toward Geneva II began from the American threat of war. The initiative to eliminate Syria’s chemical weapons might be the first step in restructuring the political map of the region but it would be a mistake to view Geneva II as merely a Syrian issue. As the regional dimensions of Geneva II begin to appear, it will become clear that further restructuring of the political map in the region is becoming a must.
All political protagonists will be obliged to follow the rhythm of these dynamic changes, in order to ensure their position in the coming phase.
It is also important to observe the impacts of active Iranian diplomacy on the Gulf Countries. The UAE has anticipated the changes and made a symbolic move toward Moscow with a $5 billion agreement with Russia. Another Gulf club member, Kuwait, has followed the UAE by sending the Kuwaiti Prime Minister to Moscow with an invitation from the Emir of Kuwait to President Putin to attend the coming Arab-African summit in Kuwait.
These impacts are not just limited to countries, political groups such as Hamas have also been affected. Khaled Mashal has sent many indirect messages of apologies to Syria through a Lebanese channel.
It may be clear that Damascus is the path toward a new regional structure, but the current phase can only be seen as ” Battle for Survival “.
