A public finance case for keeping the Fed's balance sheet large

A public finance case for keeping the Fed’s balance sheet large

By David Andolfatto.   Former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke recently asked a question concerning the optimal long-run size of the Fed’s balance sheet (Should the Fed keep its balance sheet large?). Bernanke comes down on the side of [...]
The Trump Rally Is Just Getting Started!

The Trump Rally Is Just Getting Started!

By Chris Vermeulen.   Have you ever been presented with an opportunity and missed out on it? Well, here is an opportunity you Do NOT want to miss out on. Based upon my unique “Cycle Analytical” work combined with my “Proprietary [...]
Corrective Forces Emerge, Tempering the Dollar's Rally

Corrective Forces Emerge, Tempering the Dollar’s Rally

By Marc Chandler.   Several trend moves of the past couple of weeks are correcting. Signs of the correction began yesterday in North America.  The dollar was unable to sustain gains despite a string of stronger than expected data, [...]
Trump’s Energy Policy May Impact LNG Industry

Trump’s Energy Policy May Impact LNG Industry

By Reza Yeganehshakib. President Trump’s statements about deregulating energy production in the US, as well as recent developments in US LNG capabilities (such as Cheniere Terminal’s first export last spring and the growth of Sabine [...]
Market Melt-up Brings Volatility to Metals

Market Melt-up Brings Volatility to Metals

By Chris Vermeulen.   Our recent analysis bases on a previous report of the potential for a further run in the US markets based on a number of technical and fundamental factors leads to the question of “what could happen with Gold [...]
The World’s Most – And Least – Miserable Countries in 2016

The World’s Most – And Least – Miserable Countries in 2016

By Steve Hanke.   In what follows, I update my annual Misery Index calculations. A Misery Index was first constructed by economist Art Okun as a way to provide President Lyndon Johnson with a snapshot of the economy. The original Misery [...]
Massive VIX Warning for all Traders

Massive VIX Warning for all Traders

By Chris Vermeulen. My analysis of the recent VIX action is clearly warning of a potentially massive price volatility increase in the US and global markets. Many traders use and trade the VIX as a measurement of volatility. The VIX is a [...]
Obama Leaves, Hope Arrives, Will Stupid Stay?

Obama Leaves, Hope Arrives, Will Stupid Stay?

By Barry Ferguson.   Obama’s presidential term will mercifully expire on 1/19/17. Hallelujah! He can quickly descend to his correct historical position as the second worst leader in american history beside the 28th president, Woodrow [...]
Five Events that Will Drive the Capital Markets in the Week Ahead

Five Events that Will Drive the Capital Markets in the Week Ahead

Marc Chandler.   Like many, we recognize that political factors may overshadow macroeconomic drivers in shaping the investment climate in the period ahead.  We suspect this will be very much the case in the coming days  It is not [...]
Some recent economic developments in Japan

Some recent economic developments in Japan

By David Andolfatto. Most economic commentators seem to agree that the Japanese economy has been languishing for a very long time.  What is it about Japan that gives this impression? In this post, I suggest that while Japan certainly has [...]
The Better Way: Backing into Smoot-Hawley and Repeating the Flaws of PPP

The Better Way: Backing into Smoot-Hawley and Repeating the Flaws of PPP

By Marc Chandler.   While hearings on US President-elect Trump’s nominees will begin this week, the Republicans are preparing dramatic changes in taxes.  In this note, we will look closely at one element of the proposed tax [...]
Two Minimum Wage Charts for Andy Puzder

Two Minimum Wage Charts for Andy Puzder

Donald Trump has tabbed Andy Puzder to lead the Department of Labor. Puzder is the CEO of CKE, the restaurant outfit (read: Hardee’s and Carl’s Jr.). CKE, thanks to Puzder saving it from the bankruptcy hammer, employs 75,000 workers (read: [...]
The Scandal of Vast Inequality in Retirement Pay

The Scandal of Vast Inequality in Retirement Pay

By Lawrence Wittner.   Cato the Elder, a Roman senator and historian, once remarked:  “Cessation of work is not accompanied by cessation of expenses.”  For centuries, retirees have been aware of this unfortunate fact, which [...]
What Dismantling Dodd-Frank Can Do

What Dismantling Dodd-Frank Can Do

By Peter J. Wallison. The market bump from Donald Trump’s win is peanuts compared with what regulatory relief can bring. The sharp rise in the Dow Jones Industrial Average after Donald Trump’s election could be short-lived, but based on [...]
USGS Estimates 20 Billion Barrels Of Oil In Texas

USGS Estimates 20 Billion Barrels Of Oil In Texas

The Daily Journalist.   The largest estimate of continuous oil that USGS has ever assessed in the United States is worth hundreds of  billions of dollars. The Wolfcamp shale in the Midland Basin portion of Texas’ Permian Basin [...]
Venezuela Enters the Record Book, Officially Hyperinflates

Venezuela Enters the Record Book, Officially Hyperinflates

  By Steve Hanke.   Venezuela’s inflation has officially become the 57th official, verified episode of hyperinflation and been added to the Hanke-Krus World Hyperinflation Table, which is printed in the authoritative Routledge Handbook [...]
A Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Background Check

A Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Background Check

    By Peter J. Wallison.   President-elect Trump’s nominee for Treasury secretary, Steven Mnuchin, said on Wednesday that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac should be “privatized.” This comment sent their share prices soaring, [...]
Mass Migration and Bank Weakness Threaten The Italian Economy

Mass Migration and Bank Weakness Threaten The Italian Economy

  By Jeff Berwick.   In the wake of the Italian referendum results and Matteo Renzi’s subsequent resignation, the level of uncertainty in Italy continues to grow both inside the country and among foreign investors. As many expected, [...]
Public Infrastructure — Welcome to the World of Waste, Fraud, and Abuse

Public Infrastructure — Welcome to the World of Waste, Fraud, and Abuse

By Steve Hanke.   Economic policy is subject to fads and fashions. The most recent economic-policy fad is public infrastructure. Its advocates include progressives on the “left” — like President Obama, Hillary Clinton, and Bernie [...]
Why Trump’s Policies Will Probably Result in a Trade War with China

Why Trump’s Policies Will Probably Result in a Trade War with China

By Steve H. Hanke.     The United States has recorded a trade deficit in each year since 1975. This is not surprising. After all, we spend more than we save, and this deficit is financed via a virtually unlimited U.S. line of credit [...]