By Pramod Raj Sedhain.
North Korean Nuclear Diplomacy & denuclearization possibility
Over the last two decades of United States’ negotiation concerning North Korean nuclear abandoning program, nothing concrete has been achieved so far. The limited option is ‘denuclearization’ talks yet again. The collapse of US-North’s 1994 agreement in 2002, North Korea claimed that it had withdrawn from the Non-proliferation Treaty in January 2003 and once again it began operating its nuclear facilities. Under this agreement, Pyongyang committed to freezing its illicit plutonium weapons program in exchange for aid. After failing to engage in diplomatic effort, the U. S. had prepared for military intervention in North Korea. However, this response is highly risky and imposed to wide-ranging sanctions and export controls. Since 2003 August 27, multiple rounds of negotiations have taken place between the two Koreas, China, US, Russia and Japan aimed at persuading Pyongyang to give up its nuclear ambitions, but North Korea is likely to remain a nuclear power.
Ten years after the major diplomatic efforts resulted to the ‘six-party talks’. China initiated multilateral efforts to end North’s nuclear program. Since the withdrawal from the six-way talks in 2009, the North conducted two more nuclear bomb tests as well as three long-range missile launches as part of the country’s development of inter-continental ballistic missiles – on October 9, 2006, May 25, 2009 and 12 February 2013. North Korea announced that it had conducted successful nuclear tests – they all came after the North was sanctioned by the UN. The talks aimed at persuading North Korea to give up its nuclear ambitions, however, yielded no results due to their respective stance.
Analysts believe that the first two tests used plutonium as the fissile material. The North is believed to possess enough weapons-grade plutonium for at least six bombs. The 2013 test was indeed larger in force than previous. The third nuclear test on February 12, 2013 was a miniaturized warhead. Ever since North Korea warned that a third test would be a “high level” one, there has been speculation that it might involve a uranium device. Washington’s previous attempts to denuclearize the North also ended in failure when the North defaulted in 2002 on the Agreed Framework, under which the North agreed in 1994 with the U.S. to freeze its plutonium-producing nuclear facilities. Now North Korean growing nuclear capacities control mechanism is nearly ended and it’s nuclear-armed Nation.
Recent satellite imagery showed that the country has doubled the size of its uranium enrichment facilities there, an indication that it will further increase weapon-grade uranium. Over half a century febrile rhetoric of high US officials inspire the North Korean Nuclear Motivation and deterrent. Since the Korean War, the United States’ unceasing pressure on North Korea sets as objective the collapse of the North Korean government. North Korea Massive defense expenditures, since carrying out its third nuclear test in February 2013, North Korea has responded furiously to UN sanctions.
Nuclear Threat: change itself
There is no another nation in the globe that has been exposed to the nuclear threat so directly and for so long as the North Korea. During the Korean War, US President Harry Truman announced that the use of nuclear weapons was under active consideration; US Air Force bombers flew nuclear rehearsal runs over Pyongyang; and US commander General Douglas MacArthur planned to drop 30 to 50 atomic bombs across the northern neck of the Korean Peninsula to block Chinese intervention. Washington threatened other countries with nuclear attack on 25 separate occasions between 1970 and 2010, and 14 occasions between 1990 and 2010. On six of these occasions, the United States threatened the North Korea.
United States record of issuing threats of nuclear attack against other countries over this period is – Iraq-7, China- 4, the USSR – 4, Libya – 2, Iran, 1, Syria- 1. In the late 1960s, nuclear-armed US warplanes were maintained on 15-minute alert to strike North Korea. In 1975, US Defense Secretary James Schlesinger acknowledged for the first time that US nuclear weapons were deployed in South Korea. Addressing the North Koreans, he warned, “I do not think it would be wise to test (US) reactions.” In February 1993, Lee Butler, head of the US Strategic Command, announced the United States was retargeting hydrogen bombs aimed at the old USSR on North Korea (and other targets.) One month later, North Korea withdrew from the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty.
On July 22, 1993, US President Bill Clinton said if North Korea developed and used nuclear weapons “we would quickly and overwhelmingly retaliate. It would mean the end of their country as we know it.” In 1995, and in 2003, after the fall of Baghdad, the US warned Iran, Syria and North Korea to “draw the appropriate lesson from Iraq.” Colin Powell, who had served as chairman of the US joints chiefs of staff and would later serve as US secretary of state, warned the North Koreans that the United States had the means to turn their country into “a charcoal briquette.” In April 2010, US defense secretary Leon Panetta refused to rule out a US nuclear attack on North Korea, saying, “all options are on the table.” On February 13, 2013, Panetta described North Korea as “a threat to the United States, to regional stability, and to global security.” He added: “Make no mistake. The US military will take all necessary steps to meet our security commitments to the Republic of Korea and to our regional allies.”
An article in the February 22, 2013 issue of Rodong Sinmun – the official newspaper of North Korea’s ruling Workers Party say – “Gone are the days of US nuclear blackmail” observed that “Had it not been the nuclear deterrence of our own, the U.S. would have already launched a war on the peninsula as it had done in Iraq and Libya and plunged it into a sorry plight as the Balkan at the end of last century and Afghanistan early in this century.”
North Nuclear Deterrence & US option
Neither North Korea nor the U.S. truly wish dialogue and negotiations result. U.S. sees nothing new in North Korea’s offer to talk and offered talks with the North but only on the pre-condition they abandon their nuclear weapon ambitions. The North Korea called nuclear weapons arsenal is “the nation’s life, they believe that abandoning their nuclear program would be suicidal. The North Korea Vows to Keep Nuclear Arms and said “is neither a political bargaining chip nor a thing for economic dealings”.
In 2012 April, North Korea identified itself as a nuclear power when it revised its Constitution. After the United Nations Security Council imposed more sanctions of a long-range rocket in December and its third nuclear test in 2013 February, it said it would no longer attend talks on dismantling its nuclear program. Every year’s in a joint US South Korean Military Exercise nuclear capable bombers flew offered a demonstration of American air power as part of the exercises. North Korean solidified military credentials with Nuclear weapon and build nuclear weapons to deter a US military conquest. Due to nuclear weapons, North Korea need not worry about attacks from other countries, including the U.S. Now North Korea develops a credible threat to launch nuclear-tipped ballistic missile warheads against the United States and its allies, but control option is sharply limited. Military Measure is go far & only reliable option is endless negotiations.
Another threat: Missile
North Korea’s missile capabilities have also raised eyebrows in the international arena. North Korea is believed to have all types of short, medium, intermediate and intercontinental missile capabilities. North Korea is a mystery to Western intelligence agencies. North Korea fired a rocket into orbit last December. Many countries suspected it was a long-range missile, the Unha-3. Its launch showed it had the capacity to deliver a rocket that could travel 10,000 km, according to an intelligence assessment by South Korea.
According to U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency report, North Korea currently has nuclear weapons capable of delivering ballistic missiles. It means North Korea has been able to carry out their nuclear technology with their missiles. North Korea is believed to have Taepodong-2 (Intercontinental 5,000-15,000km Range Missile), Taepodong-1 (Intermediate 2,500 – 6,000 km Range) Musudan-1 (Intermediate 4,000 km Range), Nodong-1 ( Medium 1,600 km Range, Liquid-fueled, road-mobile missile with a 650 kg warhead, GPS guidance), Nodong-2 (Medium 2,000 km Range), Hwasong-5 ( Short 330Km Range, Road-mobile, liquid-fueled missile), Hwasong-6 (Short -700 km Range, 750 kg smaller warhead Carried), KN-1 (Short 160km Range, anti-ship cruise missile), KN-2 Toksa (Short Range solid-fueled, highly accurate mobile missile). U.S. have 28,000 solder in South Korea, 36,700 in Japan and 4,300 in Guam, it is potential North Korean missile threat.
