By Jose Naffah.
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Lebanon matters today, more than it ever did before. It matters because it continues to be a buffer zone and a state of contention (be it dysfunctional, as it is now) between secularism and religious extremism (Shia theocracy, Sunni and Wahhabi sheikhdoms and fiefdoms, etc). Despite the fact that Lebanon keeps presenting itself as a democracy, it is so far still limping with a caretaker government, basically because of the intransigent attitude from Hezbollah and the power clashes with Israel and the West including the relevace of Syria as a key player in Lebanon’s internal politics.
It matters as well because of the religious tolerance reigning there (having a confessionalist political system for decades long), and it matters much more today, now that it has considerable and relevant oil and gas reserves mainly off its coastline. If Lebanon attains success in designing a coherent strategy to develop all these reserves, it could add up to the Mediterranean energy hub that can transform the geopolitical landscape in the Middle East, relaxing a strong world dependence on the Persian Gulf’s oil and gas, at least for the US and other Western allies.
However, the real reason why Lebanon will matter more in the near future, is that if the oil and gas incomes are handled by a secularist state (i.e. West-inclined) or on the contrary, Hezbollah and other extremist factors, the latter can come to grip and take control of the rising oil and gas industry in the country, which will certainly deal a fatal blow to Washington in this area.
For now, many foreign investors have decided to move forward with initial steps for participating in bidding rounds for blocks and fields offshore, giving hope to the Lebanese economy for a recovery and providing them the opportunity to reorganize itself as a country; but if the aforementioned scenario comes to fruition, it could well threaten the entire energy landscape in the Mediterranean. And this is why Lebanon matters today more than it ever did before.
The writer was born and raised in Venezuela and holds a BA in Geopolitics & International Oil Trading, majoring in Political Science. He is currently working as an independent energy geopolitical consultant, political risk adviser and in the process of establishing a firm on political risk analyses. He is a fluent speaker of, and understands, Russian, English, Arabic, Spanish, German, Greek and French. He is a Contributing Analyst for Terminal X on Oil and Energy Geopolitics and can be reached on naffahjl@gmail.com
