By Amer Sabaileh.
Paving the road to Geneva II has changed the course of the Syrian crisis but will also have broader implications for the region. The first phase on the road to Geneva II is the battle for a seat at the table for the various actors in the Syrian dispute. The second phase will aim to deal with the other pending regional issues, above all with Palestine and Israel. The transition from Syrian issues to the regional ones will present some serious challenges because of the potential changes in the political landscape and the various alliances battling for the upper hand in Syria.
This period will present a particular challenge to Jordan as the transformations impact on regional and international alliances as well as internal political challenges.
Jordan will need to be careful to avoid committing any mistakes or recreating the status of confusion that Jordanian diplomacy suffered from during the Syrian crisis, with contradictory statements regarding the Jordanian position on Syria. At this time, this created space for media discussion and conjecture on Jordan’s actual position and the internal impacts.
Internal harmony, flexibility and responsiveness to the regional changes should be the current priority of the Jordanian political agenda. As Geneva II is used as a launch pad for regional reforms, Jordan needs to step up and respond to the complex political challenges that are presented. Part of this will be to ensure it maintains open channels with the regional, and especially with Damascus.
Jordan should be careful of its current strategy to distance itself from the transformation of Geneva II from Syria to the region. It may lead to a political isolation of Jordan, as attention is focused on Syria and Egypt, the potential for economic and security impacts on Jordan are very real.
The path to resolution of the Syrian crisis has suggested the form of the next phase, and it has reshaped the roles of most of the regional and international players. Jordan should pay extra attention to its northern and western borders, and solidify a role in any reform process, as changes in Damascus and Palestine can have a real impact on Jordan.
Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh
http://amersabaileh.blogspot.com
