By Pramod Raj Sedhain.
The ancient civilization country, Iraq has now turned into a battlefield. The Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) has taken control of large swathes of the country, including second largest city Mosul and other key strategic cities last month along with Syrian boarder and other northern parts of the country. The government has been struggling to maintain their grip in capital Baghdad. Shia and Sunni factions have failed to agree on a power arrangement and the volatile country conflict might erupt into a full-scale civil war. Iraqi security and volunteer fighters have been trying to oust insurgents out of Tikrit, part of the larger battle against the gains made by ISIS in recent weeks.
In the 34-minute audio recording distributed online on June 29, the ISIL declared its alleged chief, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, “the caliph” and “leader for Muslims everywhere”. After five days, his group declared the establishment of an Islamic state, or caliphate, in the territories it seized in Iraq and Syria. The notorious terrorist man – with a $10m US bounty on his head made his first public appearance from Mosul to be seen by the entire world.
The most reclusive ISIL head and self-appointed caliph gave the first ever 21-minute video since taking the reins of the group in 2010. Appearing in black robes and a turban and an expensive watch on his right hand, he is sometimes branded as ‘James Bond’. Ruthless ISIL leader Baghdadi turned into the most significant figure in the global jihadi like Bin Laden. ISIL ambition is rapidly growing but this group’s activities are highly criticized from mainstream Sunni religious leaders. Prominent Sunni leaders have sharply rejected the caliphate declared by the ISIL group.
ISIL also saw rapid expansion in the Syrian turmoil after they gained the Syrian ground with modern weapons, training and money. The hard-core and well-trained terrorist group seized extra-advanced weaponry and vehicles from the Iraqi military during their takeover of strategic cities in June, including Mosul across the country. ISIL also committed several cold-blooded executions and war crimes.
Comprehensive overview of Iraq politic
Iraqi politic is still looming uncertainty following deep divisions between Shia, Sunni and Kurdish thus fragmenting relations between the government and opposition. As per the Iraqi power-sharing agreement following the overthrow of Saddam Hussein, the Speaker should be a Sunni Arab, the Prime Minister a Shia Arab, and the President a Kurd. However, power sharing and formation of a new government with consensual candidate is still uncertain.
The Council of Representatives (Iraqi parliament) is required to elect a new Speaker during its opening session. However, the new parliament’s first session ended without reaching an agreement. New elected Iraqi MPs have to choose a new Prime Minister, President and Speaker of the Parliament. But this remains a Herculean task after the 2010 elections. It nearly took nine months to form a new government.
April 30, 2014 elections were the first to be held since the withdrawal of US troops from Iraq. This was the third since the 2003 US-led invasion, which removed Saddam Hussein. According to Iraq’s Independent High Electoral Commission data, more than 9,000 candidates and 277 political entities contested the elections and the turnout was 62 percent, which was the same as in the 2010 election. In the Iraqi parliamentary system, there are 18 governorate-based constituencies for 328 seats including 8 seats reserved for minorities and ensuring 25 per cent of seats to women candidates. 83 total female members of parliament won their parliamentary seats without relying on the quota system from the previously elected 73.
Breakdown for the 320 seats apportioned to each governorate such as Anbar: 15, Babil: 17, Baghdad: 71 (including 1 seat for Christians and 1 seat for the Sabean), Basra: 25, Diyala: 14, Dahuk: 11 (including 1 seat for Christians), Erbil: 15 (including 1 seat for Christians), Karbala: 11, Kirkuk: 14 (including 1 seat for Christians), Missan: 10, Muthana: 7, Najaf: 12, Ninewa: 35 (including 1 seat for Christians, 1 seat for the Yzidi and 1 seat for the Shabak), Qadissiya: 11, Salahaddin: 12, Sulaymaniya: 18, Dhi-Qar: 19 and Wassit: 11 . The major winners in the April election were three Shia-centered political blocs, three Sunni-supported political blocs, and three Kurdish political blocs but they had rivalries within the coalition.
Prime Minister Nouri Maliki’s State of Law coalition won 92 of parliament’s 328 seats winning in 10 of 18 provinces. This collation needs a total of 165 seats to have a shot to remain as the prime minister. But Maliki has several foes in his own other Shia group. Other two major Shias block is Sadrist Movement with 34 seats while Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq has 31 seats.
The major three Sunni blocks belong to current parliament Speaker Osama al-Nujaifi’s Mutahidoun party with 28 seats, former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi’s Sunni-backed al-Wataniya won 21 seats and the Sunni deputy prime minister Saleh al-Mutlaq’s al-Arabiya won 11 seats in the parliament. The major three Kurdish parties won more than 50 seats in the Parliament. They are KDP 25, PUK 21 and Goran 9 seats. Kurdish have problems of Natural Resources management, territory and financial independence, among other issues. Kurdish is dissatisfied with Malliki. In their view, Malliki did not fulfill his commitments when Kurd backed him for the second term Prime Minister in 2010. Currently, Kurdish are seeking opportunity to independence. Other smaller parties and individuals have 56 seats and they could switch their allegiances anytime.
Sectarian division and interest
Iraq needs to urgency form a new national unity government with suitable power and revenue-sharing. But the sectarian futile country’s future remains uncertain and unpredictable. Without resolving the existing political crises, there can be no military solution. Political coalition is highly necessary to deal with the crisis as well as to check external intervention. Major three blocs in Iraq have their own interest.
Kurds
About 20 percent of Iraq’s population is Kurds and they have their own president, parliament and foreign minister. After US-led ousting of dictator Saddam Hussein in 2003, Kurdish got their greater autonomy as well political and economic power. The world’s third largest reserves of crude oil country, Iraq has been under serious problems of resources contested with autonomous Kurdistan regional government. In the northern part of Iraq, the turmoil created other problems within the self-governed Kurdistan Region. The central government holds the southern edge of the province. The oil-rich city of Kirkuk has been consolidating control for Iraq’s minority Kurd.
They are seeking referendum on the region’s independence from Iraq and tighten their grip over the territory. United States imposed a no-fly zone over the Kurd territories in the northern Iraq in 1991 to protect them from attacks by Hussain’s forces. However, the US interest at the current moment is unified Iraq. Autonomous Kurdistan in Iraq has been a formidable challenge for the large Kurdish minorities, including powerful neighboring countries like Iran, Turkey and Syria. Kurd is the world’s most populous stateless nation (35 to 40 million overall population) and Kurdistan refers to Iraqi Kurdistan along with large parts of eastern Turkey, northwestern Iran and north-eastern Syria. After Syrian forces withdrew from the Kurdish region in northeastern Syria, the Kurds fighters were able to take control of large sections of country territory.
Shia
The Iraqi majority Shia population had been excluded from power under the Saddam Hussein regime. In the past, Shia community was marginalized, neglected and excluded in Iraqi politic. Iraq’s Shia community is nearly twice the size of Sunni. Shia supported the US and British forces in 2003 when they invaded Iraq to overthrow Saddam. Iraq’s first multi-party elections in five decades in June 2004 brought an overwhelmingly Shia-dominated coalition to power. But the country faced insurgency and violence. Shia does not want to be dominated. ISIL gain in the Shia areas is limited because they have different militia wing, weapons, sectarian sentiments and strong Iranian support.
Sunni
Iraqi strong minority Sunni have been seeking their identity and power-sharing. The current crisis has been mainly due to Sunni rebellion among the external jihadists ISIL. Iraq’s second largest city Mosul has been the base for Jamaat Ansar AL-Islam (JAI), Saddam and former Baathist rebel front Naqshbandi Order, The anti-Shia radical suuni islamists Jaysg Al Mujahideen (JAM), Islamic Army of Iraq (IAI), Falluja base Saraya al-Madina al-Munawara (The Honoured City’s Brigades), among othersare fighting against the Baghdad government. Not only during Saddam’s regime, but Iraqi Sunni dominated the area before the country’s birth. Iraqi Sunni has seen wide differences within themselves but they play vital role against the central government.
Great challenge ahead
Iraqi situation will witness a dramatic shift in mixing up ethnic and religious culture in the Middle East. This can also trigger instability, extremism and sectarianism. Orchestrating the ongoing crisis in Iraq is the root to Syrian turmoil. Iraqi crisis can create great problems in the region’s modern history and can even threaten historical maps of post First World War era. Iraqi and Syrian sectarian division is just the beginning of crisis. This can lead to sectarian and religious rifts in the Middle East in the term future. The Iraqi crisis has been seen as an alarming threat in the regional power country.
The extremist group ISIL shifted the balance of colonial-era borders of the Middle East and dividing the country in Iraq and Syrian part and no longer valid in previous boarder. After defeating and collapsing the Ottoman Empire, the new Arab state borders lines were drawn by the British and French in World War I. After territorial gains in two countries, their aim has been to expand and create unison among the Arab countries, including Lebanon, Jordan to Saudi Arabia. That was a similar dream of al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden, who, however did not succeed. Iraqi and Syrian civil war will certainly encourage the Jihadists, arms and money, that could be a potential security threat for the entire region.
