By Pramod Raj Sedhain?
Speculations have dramatically raised among Pyongyang- watchers since the country’s core leader Kim Jong Un’s sudden disappearance from significant state functions as well as from the public view since 3 September 2014. Kim’s status and whereabouts is still unknown since it is neither verified nor any evidence-based information is received within the secretive country. North Korean government news agency KCNA news once said he was “suffering from discomfort,” but after that there have no news about the leader’s health condition. There has been no accurate assessment about Kim’s condition from the South or Western intelligence agencies either. Intelligence agency is still silent and has not provided any details. Their primary focus of assessment could be ‘possible power struggle’, perhaps power shift within the top brass military elite.
Several North Korean analysts have assessed that the reason could be anything political or military chaos in North Korea or possible power shift within the ruling military elite. Possible political destabilization in Pyongyang has increased confusion and risk for the neighboring countries but they have remained quiet and closely watching the developments of North Korea. But in general analysis, Pyongyang has not still given a clear sign of power shift to any other person or group. There has been no exact evidence or confirmation about the developments inside North Korea. Likewise, no information or source could be verified. The widely confusing issue is: where is Kim Jong Un? What has happened to him or in which direction is secret North Korean politics heading towards? Another significant question is: Who makes political decisions and who is in-charge of the country’s 1.2 million regular troops?
North Korean supreme leader Kim Jong Un’s absence from public eye for more than a month and key notable absence in high profile public events including the celebrations of founding day on 9 September, legislative session of the Supreme People’s Assembly on the 25th September and meeting to mark the 17th anniversary of his father Kim Jong-il’s election as general secretary of worker party on 7 October and 69th anniversary of the founding of the ruling Workers’ Party on October 10 has raised serious suspicion.
Of course, South Korean intelligence agency, the National Intelligence Service, has collected every detail about North Korean development as well as focusing on central leadership’s fragile and factionalism or possible power shift very carefully. However, it has not disclosed the assessments. It is still unclear about what has really happened in North Korea? The major question is: who is really in charge of Pyongyang? And particularly, what is guiding North Korea’s political course behind the scenes?
Perspective of Kim in power
Kim losing power in a coup is not easily believed in North Korea. What has really happened inside this secretive country? Who are the power brokers? Who are the ruling minds? How is North Korea functioning? These are some of the questions that have remained a mystery and are confusing the whole world. The secret might be notably invisible to run the country to create confusion to the outside world in the dynastic-ruled hermit nation. If we analyze the past experience, Kim remains in complete control of the country system and society. The current mysterious event inside North Korea might have a little bit of truth. Rumors and miscalculation inside secretive and totalitarian nation North Korea has not been a new issue.
North Korea has still remained an issue of confuse and miscalculation. Most of North Korean issues are based on the regular follow-ups by the government news agency, defector, tourist, external open source and whole rumors on the basis of lack of reliable source inside the country. If there has been a coup, there could have political, diplomatic and military consequences within the North Korean state organ – ruling party, military and the government. In case of sudden turmoil on nuclear-armed nation, there could be of course hierarchy problems within the military elite to gain the control of giant army. Another doubt is the issue of takeover of power shift, which is not easy though.
In the past, North Korea played different tools and tactics to confuse the outside world to hide the truth and fact. Coup in North Korea cannot be so easy because of the totalitarian cult of personality surrendering the Kim’s dynasty. Even if the regime collapsed surprisingly paving way for a new military regime, it would not be easy to handle the power elite, which ultimately would lead to confrontation or conflict.
Another confused calculation is the possible new leadership sign in Pyongyang which has not happened. In case of immediate power shift taking place, we see the instability and confusion but there are no signs of such developments. Toppling Kim would be surprising and unfortunate since no alternative power elite or force have immense power to handle the country. Rivalry and coup against the supreme leadership and power handover on another person is not an easy task. Same system and different leadership is not possible to smooth functioning. North Korean regime cannot survive without centre leadership.
Issues concerning North Korean have been serious since series of intelligence have failed since the formation of the country in 1948. Several Suspicions and speculations in North Korea during the Korean War as well several military coups rumor have been proved wrong. Rumors of the Leader’s poor health, serious power struggle, and death or murder news have been circulated in the entire world but finally they were not verified. Since Kim Il-sung political rivals purged time in 1950’s whispers rumored starting in outside world. Rumors of attempted among the shadowy Pyongyang elite have emerged regularly over Kim Ill Sung ruling years in 1950s, 1960s, 1970s . Coup rumor widespread in several times after some of the senior military and party official trialed and bloody purged.
Since Kim Jong Ill assumed the Pyongyang power in 1994, news concerning collapse and coup attempts had been circulated during his entire 17-year-rule in 1990s and 2000s. Several high profile news circulated in 1995, 2002 and rumor straightly surrendered after intelligence and political assessments of power shift, collapse or military but all of myth not confirmed the reality. Currently, circulating of coup against North Korean leader Kim Jong Un might be another cycle of past rumors.
