By Pramod Raj Sedhain.
Battle against brutal terrorist group, Islamic State (IS) reached a new height and “mother of all battles in Iraq will begin soon” in the militants-controlled city of Mosul. The widely-anticipated major military counter offensive against IS terrorist group is said to kick-start “at an appropriate time earliest”. Retake of Mosul from IS will be the beginning to end the ultra hard-liner terrorist outfit. Combined efforts to “degrade and ultimately destroy” the IS will surely be heading to the path of victory after retaking the strategic city of Mosul.
Crushing the barbaric IS in Mosul is certain. However, it will not be an easy and swift task. Anti-IS coalition will have to undergo very tough, complex, costly and bloody battle in Iraq’s second-largest city. The city fell into the hands of IS terrorists in June 2014 and they even spearheaded to take over significant territory in Anbar and Nineveh province. This militant outfit even went for a surprise offensive of Iraqi capital Bagdad and Kurdish capital Erbil.
United States and Iranian-Iraqi-Kurdish actors are fully concerned and focused on gathering information of the group, their hold in the city. They are also calculating the IS strength and their defense position. Both U.S. and Iranian advisors have focused on cutting off re-supply and reinforcing the fighters in Mosul to regain the city. But IS terrorist group demonstrated its ability to successfully transform their command stations with still securing their major communication systems, handling of supply chain for ammunition and its fighters, financial resources, among others battle tactic.
Without destroying the active recruiting chain and considerable firepower, the IS will be able to defend or control the city for a long time which will also lead the way for similar come backs. Terrorist group’s invisible location, command structure, unknown fighter units and strategy could be more complex than expected. Iranian advisor is more focused to neutralize the IS heavy weapons’ strength by tracking with special radar and to pinpoint the source of incoming mortar and artillery fire and to retaliate hit back.
Washington-Iranian-Baghdad-Erbil officials have been holding intensive discussion and strategy to re-take Mosul. They have agreed to do so before April. The US still avoids fresh assault in Mosul and has been encouraging on effective planning and preparation for some months. However, Bagdad, Tehran, Kurd and militias hold no patience and want swift formation for battle by cutting IS recruitment and revenue resources.
U.S. has been facing immense pressure to act immediately and consider new battle strategy to regain Mosul. IS has defended the city to a significant level and without extensive aerial bombardment, it is very difficult to break IS position. Iran has fully prepared for ground assaults and has already invested money, manpower, ammunitions and communication against the IS.
Kurdish Peshmerga forces were able to recapture key Kurd area near the East of Mosul from the IS terrorists. They showed their fighting credibility after recapturing the Turkish border at the northern Syrian city of Kobani from IS. Similarly, Shia fighters got victory over the IS in the strategic Iraqi province of Diyala. They are currently ready to move towards Mosul. Iraqi forces and various tribal fighters have also gained victory over IS in different places. Anti-IS coalition’s morale at the moment is very high and is waiting for ground assault to retake Mosul city.
However, support from several local groups to IS has been a major problem for the anti-IS coalition. Responding to my query about the ground situation and operation, Iranian source told me that “Iranian revolutionary guards organized the Iraqi army along with all communities militia, including Shias, Sunnis, Kurds, and Christians for the decisive ground counter attack in Mosul.”
Talking over the phone, one credible Iranian journalist, who is reporting at the frontline, confirmed the extension of Iranian support. He indicated that the move to Mosul would begin “pretty soon”. He told me, “Iranian political, diplomatic and military officials are fully aware that all eyes set on Mosul, Iranian advisors are very sensitive about the future sectarian tension and possible civil war. Therefore, they want to mobilize tribal and inclusive force to liberate the city of Mosul.”
It is definite that Mosul will see a bloody and difficult urban battle very soon. However, successful campaign strategy and broader alliance is needed to recapture the city, which is some 400 kilometers north of the Baghdad. Collective efforts of Iraqi military, Kurdish Peshmerga forces, volunteers of Shiite and Sunni militia fighter groups need more close coordination and unified command structure. Strategy to retake Mosul needs collective military formation as well as control of IS re-supply and reinforce of its fighters.
Cutting the supply lines between Iraq and Syria is the key strategic focus to recapture Mosul. Advisors of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps have been deploying fleet of drones, heavy military hardware as well as local ground control stations in the appropriate areas. New coordination mechanization formation and advisers’ ground assessments have been almost finalized. High-level Iranian general will come to the area to direct and finalize the mobilization of the combat ground forces to re-control the key city. Surveillance of drones in the Islamic State-controlled territory has been more frequent than before.
Anti-IS coalition is more focused in Mosul like what they did in Kobani of Syria. The key Syrian border town of Kobani witnessed extensive aerial bombardment to support for Kurd ground forces’ to fully liberate after a four-month long battle. But battle in Mosul will be far more complex than Kobani. Frequent and intensive target should be carried out to neutralize IS strength and collective power in Mosul. Air strikes should target their other bastion like their capital of Raqqa, Syria and other positions to destroy their command structure, resources and fighters. Such a strategy will weaken and isolate the group’s chain in every sector.
Aggressive and frequent aerial and ground attacks against IS multi-position will sharply decrease and demoralize their fighters and destroy their weapons. But IS has brigades of fighters, dozens of suicide bombers as well as modern weaponry. Expelling and eliminating of terrorist groups from Mosul will be a very complex task and might need the support of direct foreign forces. U.S. military is still considering to mobilize ground troops to help anti-IS coalition. U.S. chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Martin Dempsey referred to the idea of US boots on the ground in Iraq but President Barack Obama did not give a nod to the recommendation.
Success also depends on coalition’s more intensive aerial strikes against terrorist groups’ targets. Such attacks can destroy terrorists’ bunkers, artillery, combat vehicles, communication, supply vehicles, command posts and neutralize the long range weapons. More significant step would be to erecting fortifications, and targeting and killing their leadership. Iraqi foreign strategists are more confident to go for offensive.
However, they still lack full logistical capacity for sustained assault. Preparation for more ammunition, equipment and training is needed before going for offensive. Establishing more defensive positions and logistic support and establishing the lines of communications need to be in place for the operation. Removing or defusing the ‘booby-trapped’ houses and roadside bombs will be the biggest problems.
Preparing for the battle against IS group in northern Iraq needs to be highly-organized and coordinated. Military offensive against IS cannot succeed without U.S aerial strike and Iran’s ground support. Successful offensive on Mosul depends on a complete battle to gain final victory against the world’s most powerful terrorist group.
The terrorists have got the combat skills and fighting against Islamic State fighters on the streets will not be easy. To degrade the IS cannot be possible by aerial strikes alone. Even sophisticated systems cannot function properly to track the Islamic State’s movement. War against IS militants has seen intelligence lapses but eliminating their major offence ability as well as killing their fighters and mid level Islamic State leadership is necessary to wipe them out.
The IS has still professional fighting forces of former Iraqi dictator Saddam’s disbanded elite Republican Guards and thousands of futureless youth . Anti Islamic State fighters like Iraqi Army, Kurds and Shia militia have gained ground against IS and have high morale to move forward. However, the situation is still complex. Street to street and house to house close combat will be seen very soon.
This will see the real military capabilities of both sides. Effective heavy weapons are needed to destroy the IS tanks, artillery system and other effective weapons. Terrorists have dozens of lower altitude and short ranges missiles, and a wide range of lighter, shoulder-launched missiles. Use of helicopters or close combat support will have rare chance. Rearming, re-equipping, and retraining is needed for fresh ground attacks against the IS’s major bastion in Mosul. Win over Mosul is not far. Re-take of Mosul is surely the beginning of the end of barbaric terrorist group – Islamic State.
