Alliance of Circumstance

 

By Shermineh Salehi.

 

Alliance of Circumstance

Under global economic pressure Caucasus powers Russia and Iran, have felt the need to act quickly. The completion of a long awaited arms deal provided Iran with the much needed S-300 ground to air missiles. Researchers have been torn on whether sanctions have backfired on western nations by creating a dangerous military alliance. However, a critical observation of recent events would reveal an alliance of circumstance.

When considering the arms deal finalized on Tuesday it looks as though Putin’s team had accepted the inevitable economic isolation caused by sanctions. One must keep in mind the regional powers had been trading weapons prior to the 1979 revolution.

Yet relations became sour when sales were halted in 2010 by Medvedev due to U.N imposed sanctions on Iran in fear it would harm Moscow’s image on the global stage. In an article by political analyst Pukhov he made a legitimate claim that Iran could provide direction in navigating sanctions,

” the Iranians have a lot to offer Russians in terms of learning to operate a military and defense industry in virtual isolation.”

Although many analysts believe the Caucasus allies are unaffected by economic isolation, drop in the ruble has significantly weakened Russia’s hand in spending. There remain those who believe pressure from Moscow on former allies to pay up are signs of a resilient and intimidating regime.

Where researchers like Tamir Eshel interpreted military might when defense minister Shoygu made legal threats to France for deferring the purchase of two Mistral class warships. Hollande’s continued rejection of remaining ships added to the presumption France acted in fear of the impending 1.56 billion dollar prior agreement. (1)

In support of this view, other scholars have lost hope in Ukraine’s freedom from Gazprom’s grasp. It is believed that regardless of the millions of dollars paid in advance, Putin’s regime would be willing to follow through on threats to cut off all energy output.(2)

With that said, its understandable that the Putin Rouhani handshake insights fear in the mind of observers, yet it still must be considered that sanctions have had a real hold over efforts to strengthen the ruble. Targeted sanctions meant to hinder foreign business deals carried out by Russians banks, energy and defense companies has left Iran ties as a last resort option.

The weakened currency has stalled energy projects such as those by Rosneft struggling to attain billion dollar loans. Furthermore, Russia may have plans to align closer to Iran but economic pressure has exposed a desperation to feed a weakened state.

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