Julian French.
Moscow, Russia. The Moscow River flows through this ancient seat of Russian power like a timeless reminder of a timeless country and its seemingly endless space. The Moscow European Security Conference at which I today spoke with Russia’s Foreign and Defence Ministers is a jewel in the crown of Russia’s Ministry of Defense.
Now, I am no Russophobe. Indeed, as a student of Russian history my respect for this immense country is great. And, seen from Moscow it is very easy to see just how Russians see their place in Europe and Europe’s place in Russia. And yet listening to several of today’s speeches I was reminded of a nineteenth century Russian Prime Minister Gorschakov who once described Europe as a peninsula stuck on the end of Russia.
In other words what happened in Europe only did so in the context of Russia. That is not how Europe works today if it ever did. Russian concerns must of course be treated with respect but I fear that Moscow is about to miss a great opportunity to influence a Europe more in flux than at any time since the end of the Cold War.
The day has been dominated by what for most Europeans and North Americans are yesterday’s issues; NATO enlargement, the defunct Conventional Forces Europe treaty and that old favorite ballistic missile defense. What has surprised me is the extent to which Moscow obsesses over American plans for a limited NATO missile defense.
There is a very genuine and heartfelt belief in Moscow that plans for BMD are the thin end of a wedge that could in time threaten Russia’s nuclear deterrent. Instead Russia should focus on two things. First, the changing power relations in Europe. When the Euro-zone core deepens political relations relationships with and between Europe’s new peripheral powers- Britain, the Nordic states, Russia and Turkey -will also change.
Indeed, their interests will tend to align beyond existing institutional boundaries. Second, emerging security challenges and threats should be the stuff of Russia’s European and Euro-Atlantic strategy rather than trying to preserve mutually assured destruction in Europe. MAD belongs to Europe’s last century not this one.
To a large extent Prime Minister Gorschakov was right; Europe is indeed a peninsula stuck on the end of Russia. However, given the globalized and globalizing context of contemporary security Russia is a European power and together we are all ever more a peninsula stuck on the end of Asia. Russia is missing a fundamental strategic point – if Russia wants to fashion a single European security space it needs to promote a new security agenda and soon.
