Posts by AdilRaja:
Wave of Islamic terrorism in greater Middle East background and global impact
January 7th, 2015By Adil Raja.
While Pakistan is mourning the greatest ever massacre on its soil by the Taliban terrorists killing hundreds of school children in a daylight suicidal attack, 150 women were beheaded at Iraq by the Islamic State terrorist for not submitting to sexual slavery of their fighters. Irony is that while these gruesome incidents are not anything new under the fresh wave of blind violence and hatred being displayed by the Islamist Religious Extremist operating through their mercenaries in the greater Middle East. However, the intensity of this rage which now targets even women and children who were previously pardoned in these war within the Islamic countries is unprecedented. What allowed this change in attitudes towards these new heights of extremism? and how come the firebrand extremist Mullahs are getting away with selling this brand of intense hatred among the Muslim youth around the globe? is a question to ponder upon. The impact of this bloody trend may be far reaching and much beyond any calculated outcomes by the western world is my bet.
This new wave of terror, driving the Islamist terror network run by independent yet interlinked groups in a modern world where communications are ever easier then before is a cause of disgust and surprise even to those conservative Muslims around the globe who sympathized earlier with the Jihadist causes. May it be Boko Haram in Nigeria, ISIS in Syria and Iraq, the Taliban in Pakistan or the various forms of this concept around the globe, this concept of ultra violent, inhuman and disgusting bloody attitudes is being sold and spread with impunity. Although its money which drives this mad machine but obtaining “ideological mercenaries” willing to blow themselves for a cause they believe in needs some solid grounds of motivation. It is definitely a “fallout” of something as sinister, as inhuman and as disgusting as this wave of Islamist terror we are witnessing.
The reason for the surge in Islamist terrorism as per my understanding is largely due to a feeling of mistrust, suspicion and hatred towards the western world in general by the Muslims around the globe. The “capitalist greed” driven wars waged by the west on the Muslim countries staged by the western corporate-government alliance for “oil” and resources over false pretexts which were shamefully exposed (Iraq WMDs for example) led to the said feelings and emotions and rightly so. The western world realized the follies of their greedy corporate-government alliances and punished their public representatives in utilizing their respective democratic rights, however, it was too little too late with the damage being irreparable. Thousands of lost lives, millions of affected humans and a global tragedy as a result ignited the fire of hatred and revenge which was brewed for years. To top it all off, the west tried to sell their brand of democracy where it suited them to masses unfamiliar with the concept. They destroyed or tried to destroy the authoritarian Middle Eastern and African regimes but failed to install anything near their own brand of democracy as promised.
The western democracies tried introducing developed democratic ideals to the tribal societies still primitive in the developed world’s concept of civilization and life styles. The result was the devastation which followed upsetting established welfare states and turning them into dust and blood as it stands today (Libya being a case study for example). The western script writers and their Middle Eastern partners initiating and fueling this complete mega cycle of events I am afraid knew the results, but choose to ignore as it was a perfect alibi for the western audience and their followers at Middle East. The western corporate-government alliance got what they came for at the political costs in their own countries but the Middle East was left torn and bleeding. The only states left intact are still monarchies and led by totalitarian regimes. So much for democracy at the Middle East.
While the western public’s intentions were honest and naive, their corporate business-government alliances used the same to sell the wars enforced on to Middle East in the name of freedom and justice led by the USA. They messed up big time, for this is the age of globalization where nationalities are merging and identities are in fusion. The Muslim world around the world never got over this tragedy in essence. And this led the opportunist firebrand Mullahs to upbeat and sell their brand of horrific terror around the globe being unleashed by the Boko Harams, Talibans, ISIS or whatever religious fanatic names they have got misusing the very soul of Islam and its message of harmony and peace. Its like misusing the sincerity of the western public for freedom and democracy into selling them the wars in Middle East. The Mullahs are playing upon the same pure feelings of Muslims globally for fellow brethren Muslims suffering immensely in Middle East due to the aftermath of the western corporate-government waged wars.
This phenomenon is influencing the mosques of complete Muslim world including those in USA and Europe. Sensible Muslim clerics are trying hard to fight the undercurrents of Islamist extremist attitudes sold by wannabe Mullahs and the promises of sexual slaves and riches followed by heavens after death as a Jihadi. This distorted version of Islam has been made available to be sold due to reasons mentioned but the impact is not restricted to Middle East alone. A large number of fighters who jumped into this mess for the adrenaline rush are western nationals. Those out of them who realize the reality and want to return are either killed by the terrorist organizations they have joined or persecuted on return.
Intelligence services of regional powers with hegemonic designs or other vested interests are using these extremist terrorist forces for their own goals. These attitudes like the Indians financing Taliban targeting arch rivals Pakistan from Afghanistan in a war of hegemony and influence or vice versa is further strengthening these snakes which will ultimately “bite the hands which are feeding them”. Its a cycle which began with the USA creating Afghan Jihad and selling the firebrand Islamist Jihadi agenda to the whole Muslim world in order to stop the Communist rise in the cold war. It worked superficially only to leave deep scars within these societies making them the breeding grounds for the terror being manifested today.
Anarchy might be the order of the day as the realist school of thought suggests as long as cooperation is being extracted. However if these issues are not addressed at grass root level and measures are not taken to heal these bleeding wounds, no counter terrorism strategy will work. There will be homegrown recruits available for these extremist elements till the time these issues are not acknowledged and addressed. The west needs to take onus and positively influence the future course of events which is an effort agreed but the magnitude of these efforts are required to broaden. Negative state level attitudes fueling these fires of hatred and extremism irrespective of religion and ethnicity need to be checked and curbed globally. Changing of diabolical attitudes and beliefs at all levels starting from the top is the only way forward if we want to prevail as humanity….
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US Forces Withdrawal From Afghanistan-Impact On The Region
January 4th, 2015
By Adil Raja.
With the Afghan Elections and its aftermath over, the US hopes for a smooth democratic governance on the Afghan domestic front while at the same time, extricate it’s forces with minimum amount of nuisance. Taliban on the other hand are waiting with the time at their side for the same to happen, after which they hope to regain the lost grounds post 2001. Whether the Afghan Security Forces, trained and equipped by the US is capable to tackle the impending scenario is highly doubtful due to obvious reasons.
It would take lot more time and beating for the Afghan Security Forces to achieve the desired standards expected out of any national level regular armed force, capable of discharging assigned/expected responsibility. In case of Afghanistan, it’s too much of an ask from the Afghan National Army and affiliated forces, if a pragmatic overview is taken. Political institutions of Afghanistan is far off from maturity and requires constant support of the international community to flourish, if at all it does.
US administration is honour bound with the pledge Obama made to the American Public and withdraw their Forces from Afghanistan in this year. However, the US after loosing trillions of dollars in the Afghan war expenses and facing the political baggage which comes with the loss of men and material in the said war effort, doesn’t find it feasible to just abandon the whole cause. After all, Afghanistan does constitute to be the gateway to the energy and mineral rich corridors of the Central Asian Republics. Maintaining a respected presence at Afghanistan thus, holds the key to the US global dominance in present times and those to follow.
Pakistan on the other side, is yet another key player in the region. Land locked Afghanistan’s easiest access to the warm sea waters are afforded by Pakistan. The Pakistani military strongly holds the policy and implementation cards when it comes to their foreign policy towards Afghanistan. Pakistani Intelligence (ISI) also has strong influences on the Afghan Taliban leadership whom they created alongside the American CIA in the Cold War era to beat the Soviets, which they did. In the aftermath of Soviet disintegration, the US abandoned the region leaving a huge space, which had to be occupied. ISI did just that and maintained a semblance of control over the world’s largest “ideological mercenary force” created and trained by the joint American-Pakistani collaboration.
However, for part abandoning the Afghan Jihad after the demise of USSR which led to an Afghan civil war among the proxies, and part the extremist ideology fed to the “Mujaheddin” for the sacred “Jihad” by the ISI_CIA trainers, USA for the Taliban is now the “infidel power”, which must be fought against. Taliban are no one else but those two generations of Mujaheddin, which were regrouped to form a singular power by the ISI in order to bring an end the bloody Afghan civil war post Soviet withdrawal. The formulation and support of the Taliban was a necessary evil for Pakistan, which was the singular most affected country suffering from the civil war at Afghanistan after the US abandoned the region.
A force had to be created which could bring an end to the civil war while stop the influx of record refugees into Pakistan, affecting its economy and livelihood. Pakistanis did just that and brought the Taliban to the power “ruins” of Kabul, as they stood. 2001 US led invasion brought an end to that, but ISI held its influence over the Taliban who had strong business interests from and within Pakistan generating funds for the leaders and the organization. As goes with any such scenario, Pakistan created a Frankenstein, whose ideological twins at Pakistan a.k.a Tehreek e Taliban Pakistan(TTP) is actively inflicting fatal blows to the Pakistani Armed Forces and civilians alike in a decade long war against the Pakistani state for siding with the US in the global war against terror.
Pakistani military’s stubbornness in response to the US led efforts to isolate the Afghan Taliban is reminiscent of the earlier’s fears of the US behaviour in post Cold War era. At the same time, the Pakistani military views an Indian influenced government at Kabul and the US-Indian coalition in the regional perspective, as a serious security threat.
Without the Pakistanis on board, the US is looking at a doomsday scenario, where India alone is not capable to counter the Pakistani influences at Afghanistan due to the geopolitical factors, such as the Chinese deep rooted partnership with Pakistan and both the country’s hostile history with India.
The US needed to address these issues with Pakistan, for a face saving, for a proclaimed successful US forces withdrawal from Afghanistan in the current year. The US decided to pacify the military at Pakistan by offering them the military hardware, the US will be leaving behind. For a cash and hence equipment starved military, this offer was too good to resist. US risked annoying the Indians which they did, by this equipment transfer, which is reportedly well underway. The Pakistanis are already well trained on the US military hardware and posses strong maintenance and operational capabilities of the new technologies being inducted through the said US offer. But the trillion dollar question is, “what does the US gets in the bargain”?
About everything the US desired it looks like. Foremost, on the US wishlist it seems is the demand that the Pakistani ISI will keep a leash on the Taliban during both pre and post US Forces withdrawal. The US also wants the Pakistani military to seek Taliban participation in the Afghan democratic governance which is frankly too much of an ask. The US will keep on operating from Pakistan and support those bases which will remain at Afghanistan. Pakistan is expected to support the democratic government at Kabul while try not to interfere in the Afghan internal affairs. The acceptance of the US military hardware deal and the release of the latest tranche of the “Coalition Support Fund” to Pakistan signifies the agreement thus sealed.
A stable Afghanistan is in the interest of Pakistan, is the realization both at the Pakistani military and civilian power corridors. However to achieve the same would be a question of time, and dedicated effort by essentially the Pakistani Security Establishment in partnership with its Allies. This is a complex maze of numerous red lines, which need never be crossed. If achieved successfully by the collaboration of “all the stake holders”, the result could well be, a new chapter in the regional and global history upon which the subsequent generations will take pride in reading.
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The Future of Terrorism In Pakistan-External Impacts
June 28th, 2014
By Adil Raja.
The Pakistani Taliban in particular the Mehsud faction have launched latest series of their terror strike on the Pakistani Public Installations, opportunity military and other soft targets as a revenge of the killing of their leader Hakim Ullah Mehsud in a US drone strike late last year. The Islamist extremist of Central Asia and Middle East origins are actively on board in this latest offensive in accordance with the past providing both the financial and manpower resources. It is also a fallout of the reluctant and cautious approach in handling the problem where the Pakistani military is playing the bad cop and the Nawaz Sharif government acting the good cop.
The lack of political resolve in launching a decisive nation wide operation to cleanse this cancer of terrorism is evidently lacking with the Nawaz Sharif administration in charge. It’s not as if the Pakistani security forces has the potential to achieve a cent per cent success in the aftermath of any such operation as the enemies are not beyond but within. However, any such operation will at best send the rats back to their sewers only to strike back in the darkness of the night, but it is that darkness which bothers the Nawaz regime. The Pakistani civilian government ascertains themselves in not a position to handle the political and economic mayhem which will result after hitting the bee hive as they see it. The Pakistani military is anxious to strike hard and avenge their fallen comrades which is in the larger interest for the Pakistani state security scenario.
The regional and international stake holders are demanding to see some potent action to put the Pakistani house in order. The hostile segments to Pakistani state like the Afghan intelligence KHAD backed by the Indian RAW are consciously supporting the terror attacks in Pakistan owing to their own vested interests. A destabilized nuclear armed Pakistan is not in the interest of any nation globally. But a stabilized Pakistan properly utilizing her power potential would be the last wish of those fueling the fire at Pakistan. The design it seems is to present a scenario where Pakistan is kept hostage to the ongoing insurgency for foreseeable future while the hegemony of the neighboring India grows in influence and strength fast becoming a regional counterweight to China.
Pakistanis are most effectively tasting their own medicine when it comes to the onslaught brought upon to them by their own created militant networks originally targeting the Indian held Kashmir. After the all powerful dictator Pervez Musharraf took a U turn on the decades old Kashmir policy of Pakistan under the US pressure, the “Mujaheddin” created by the Pakistani security establishment for the “Kashmir Jihad” tuned into “International Ideological Mercenaries”.
These mercenaries are now up for hiring to the highest bidder, and in essence haunting their creators as Frankenstein. These same mercenaries are active in the People’s Republic of China, particularly in the largest province of Xinjiang which borders not only Pakistan, but also Russia, Mongolia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgystan, Tajikistan, Afghanistan and India. The strategic narrative of these proxy operations through the said “Islamic Ideological Mercenaries” in itself brings out the deductions to a thinking mind.
The province of Xinjiang at China borders eight different countries and hence provides China with eight different levers of exerting physical pressure to her neighbors which include India, with whom they have fought an all out war already. In this entire part of the world, Pakistan is the strongest ally Chinese could ever count on and hence the Sino-Pak bilateral ties are defined as “deeper than the seas”.
The Pakistani extremist groups are flourishing because of the inefficiency of the Pakistani administration to begin with going further to factors like foreign direct and indirect funding in particular at Afghanistan as handling grounds and lack of international joint mechanism to counter this onslaught.
Until there is an International Counter Intelligence network implemented by essentially China, Pakistan and the Central Asian Republics with the Russian blessings on ground, this cancer will keep on spreading. At the same time, some sense needs to talked into the Indians, who are playing with the fire not realizing the fact that the same can burn themselves in future too.
If the Pakistanis under the Chinese auspices secretly decides to rehire the services of these “ideological mercenaries” and play tit for tat with the Indians to begin with, not only the earlier have much more potential but also experience to fight such a proxy war. In such a case these “Islamic Ideological Mercenaries” will find it an absolute pleasure to fight under the flag of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, the only nuclear armed Muslim country with the strongest military among them all.
India and Co under such a scenario won’t last ten months keeping in view it’s economy and demography compared to the more than a decade of punishment Pakistan has absorbed and continues to do so. China is also strong enough to sustain the mercenary assault, but if they decides to pay back in kind, the very integration of India would be at stake. The change in Russian moods and allegiances under the constantly and fast changing power dynamics of Asia after the Ukraine/Crimea episode, may also not favour India and Co like times of the past.
Unless all the Asian powers are willing to act together for the combined prosperous future of the biggest/most populous continent on the globe, the Pakistani terror network will spread systematically destroying everything in its influence keeping Asia busy in firefighting rather enjoying the perks of their enormous global potential. Peace is the only way forward………………………….or else………
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