Posts by MichaelHughes:

    Libya Is the New Syria: How ISIL Exploited the Post-Gaddafi Vacuum

    March 26th, 2015

    By Michael Hughes.

     

    The Obama administration, and its French and British lackeys, heralded the toppling of Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi in 2011 as a humanitarian triumph. However, predictably, the decapitation of the Libyan state directly enabled the rise of bloodthirsty radical groups, including the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), which appears bent on incorporating North Africa into its transnational Caliphate.

    Hours after members of ISIL’s Libyan branch beheaded 21 Egyptian Christians on Monday, I posed to renowned Syrian expert, Professor Joshua Landis, a fundamental two-part question: Could Libya become a new Syria and, if so, did the ouster of Gaddafi help cause this transformation?

    “Yes and yes,” Landis responded. “With the destruction of the central state in Libya the door was opened to radical groups. Liberals turned out to be too weak to carry out the revolution and unite the county behind themselves.”

    ISIL is now filling ungovernable gaps left in the wake of Gaddafi’s fall, according to geopolitical analyst, Dr. Theodore Karasik, who says the Islamist group is opening a second front in Libya and “seeks to engulf all of northern Africa.”

    After the Mad Dog of the Middle East was no longer around to maintain stability, however brutal his tactics were, the country slid into civil war and interim authorities failed to deal with disparate powerful militia groups. Ultimately, the failure of the reconciliation process resulted in a political vacuum, according to Cambridge University Libyan historian, Professor Jason Pack, who said there was no ISIL in Libya until this process imploded.

    Kalam, a Tripoli-based think tank, credited Gaddafi’s ouster with the “continued political and military chaos,” which has provided an ideal situation for extremist organizations such as ISIL to expand throughout Libya.

    Kalam also indicated that the ISIL threat has been obvious since last July, evidenced by a catalogue of incidents including beheadings, hostage-taking and “processions of militants driving through towns flying the black flag that is now synonymous with ISIS.”

    Many onlookers at the time of the 2011 Western intervention had warned, including in these very pages, that support for the anti-Gaddafi resistance movement could pave the way for “an Al Qaeda-led Islamic caliphate.”

    Even more amazing is the fact that the United States was well aware that the Libyan “freedom fighters” were being led by members of Al Qaeda. By March 2011, the CIA was reportedly already providing anti-regime forces with “advisory services.” Former Al Qaeda commander and Guantanamo detainee, Abdel-Hakim al-Hasidi, was helping to lead those forces, who admitted his troops had fought against the US in both Afghanistan and Iraq. Not to mention media reports that al-Hasidi had already established an “Islamic emirate” in eastern Libya.

    How does one account for this short-sightedness? At the time there was a consensus call to arms by hawks in the Senate, like John McCain, and so-called liberal humanitarian interventionists, who wanted to prevent Gaddafi from supposedly slaughtering thousands and committing atrocious human rights violations. It was popular and politically expedient to remove the Libyan tyrant, as his massacres were broadcast across cable networks around the world.

    Obama was also pressured by then Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who claimed the US was facing another Rwanda, a genocide the Clinton administration had turned its back on. Obama dare not look weak and allow this bloodshed to continue.

    Of course there were other less altruistic reasons. Many scoffed at the notion that the West intervened to secure Libya’s energy resources given that its output accounted for only 2 percent of worldwide consumption. However, a few key NATO members relied on Libya for petro at levels not easily replaced on short notice, such as France, which at the time imported 15 percent of its oil needs from the North African country. To paraphrase Noam Chomsky, if Libya’s chief export were asparagus, the West would have been much less interested in its affairs.

    But it was the hubris of the liberal advocates that was hardest to stomach, who proudly pranced around and mocked opponents of the Libyan intervention, as Glenn Greenwald points out, many of whom opposed the Iraq invasion.

    “Democrats (with validity) love to demand that Iraq War advocates acknowledge their errors and be discredited for their position,” Greenwald writes. “We are rapidly approaching the point, if we are not there already, where advocates of ‘intervention’ in Libya should do the same.”

    The White House, Congressional hawks and self-described humanitarians apparently suffered from a case of collective amnesia when they launched their Libyan adventure, not learning a single lesson from Iraq. While glorifying in what they proclaimed was a new “model for Western intervention,” Obama and his accomplices were completely oblivious to what they had sown, which Libya is reaping today.

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    The Perils of Arming Syria’s ‘Freedom Fighters’

    August 20th, 2013

     

    By Michael Hughes.

    After sacrificing over 6,700 troops and spending over $2 trillion in Iraq and Afghanistan to rid the world of Al Qaeda, the U.S. is seriously considering arming these very same elements to effect regime change in Syria. The same political leaders who want to give the death penalty to Dzhokhar Tsarnaev are beating the drum to give shoulder-fired missiles to like-minded jihadists bent on toppling Assad’s apostate government. Although most foreign policy realists fully embrace “the enemy of my enemy is my friend” doctrine, Obama’s Syria policy is in jeopardy of pushing the bounds of cynicism to entirely new levels.

    A number of major mainstream media outlets have persistently called on the administration to arm the rebels, such as the editorial board of The Washington Post and senior op-ed columnists from The New York Times, including former executive editor Bill Keller. It is interesting to reflect on how many of these same media outlets excoriated George W. Bush for the invasion of Iraq (albeit they were against the war after they were for it). Should the U.S. decide to heed their counsel one wonders what the editorials will look like a few years from now when the U.S. finds itself in yet another Middle East quagmire.

    Proponents of military intervention like Senator John McCain have claimed that the U.S. can divert these resources to more savory characters. On CNN last week he professed his belief that the U.S. could organize, train and equip a formidable opposition force while ensuring we “get the weapons to the right people.” Yet in the same breath McCain admitted that members of the extremist al-Nusra front were “the bravest and the most effective” fighters.

    The al-Nusra front, it bears underlining, is basically the reincarnation of Al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI). McCain also mentioned that on the ground there are about 100,000 opposition troops, 60,000 of which belong to said radical outfit. According to Foreign Policy the Free Syrian Army (FSA), the largest and most internationally recognized opposition group, has recently been losing fighters at a rapid pace to radical Islamist factions.

    McCain failed to mention that the CIA was already on the ground trying to divert weaponry to moderate elements within the opposition while steering them away from Islamist groups. Given the expanding dominance of the extremist groups one wonders if this approach has borne much fruit. According to the The New York Times the CIA also aimed to persuade Saudi and Qatari donors “to withhold portable antiaircraft missiles that might be used in future terrorist attacks on civilian aircraft.”

    A good rule of thumb. And one we should weigh heavily before trying to wade through a network of 1,000 militias in search of the good guys as we further militarize the conflict.Vetting those groups to determine how to distribute arms would be a complex task given that the opposition is fractured and operates with little central coordination or leadership. Even if the U.S. does provide arms directly to the rebels it might not tip the balance considering Iran and Russia will likely increase weapons shipments to Syrian government forces. And even if the U.S. could identify the “good guys” there are no guarantees they would remain so, because allegiances are transitory. As Rosa Brooks writes: “Political loyalty is fleeting, but weapons, like diamonds, are forever.”

    Zbigniew Brzezinski, who is quite the expert on jihadist blowback, believes arming the rebels is not only a bad idea, he contends it will only make the situation worse. Brzezinski was former President Jimmy Carter’s National Security Advisor and the architect of the CIA operation that funded the Afghan mujahidin. The most extreme of these holy warriors evolved into a group known as the Taliban which helped establish a jihadist factory which helped Al Qaeda hatch the 9/11 scheme. Brzezinski argues that U.S. involvement would boost the extremists’ narrative that a de facto American-Israeli-Saudi alliance has been formed to fight a Syria-Iran-Hezbollah bloc in a proxy war that could destabilize the entire region.

    Syria expert Joshua Landis contends that the conflict has already taken on the contours of the Iraq war and the ethnosectrian divide in Syria runs deeper and is much more complex. Landis is convinced that the ethnic civil war will never be resolved by outside powers.

    And for those who like to point to Libya as a model consider how the weapons flooded the black market and fell into the hands of extremists who helped destabilize Mali, forcing the French to intervene. Not to mention, months after Gaddafi’s demise the country was stillplagued by internecine warfare because the transitional government was unable to disarm hundreds of rival militia groups.

    What seems to be lacking the most is an explicit political objective achievable in a time period and at a cost that is domestically palatable. Injecting countless weapons into this imbroglio will not alter the underlying political dynamics and may serve to prolong it. The overwhelming desire to prevent further bloodshed in Syria is an understandable and naturally human emotion. Peter Singer’s analogy comes to mind in which he likens the moral failure of not providing foreign aid to starving countries to not rescuing a drowning child. Then again, if one cannot swim one should resist the temptation to leap in for fear of exacerbating the situation.

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