Posts by PramodSedhain:
North Korea: Signs of Change
November 11th, 2013
By Pramod Raj Sedhain.
The ruling style of the young leadership in one of the world’s most closed states – North Korea has been the world’s attention. Swiss-educated young leader Kim Jong-un came to the power as a successor of his father Kim Jong Ill when he died on 17 December 2011. Kim Jong-un’s leadership has been a significant change.
Young Leader: New ruling style
The first and foremost changing signal to the world’s most secretive and isolated country’s North Korea has been the new leader Kim Jong Un’s ruling style. The young Kim’s first speech in public since assuming the leadership of North Korea was on April 15, after the failed rocket launch. On the Century birthday of Kim Il-sung, his grandfather, Kim, the 20-minute public speech demonstrated open leadership style rather than his father’s ruling style. His father Kim Jong Ill had given a single public speech in 1992 on the occasion of the military parade. He spoke a single sentence: “Glory to the heroic soldiers of the People’s Army.” That is only the sentence in his 17 years in the power. He was very rare in public appearance as well.
Kim’s style is public friendly leadership and is similar to his charismatic grandfather Kim Ill Sung – more interactive and frequently public apparent. Young Kim’s 2013 New Year’s speech was also quite different which was about peace, stability and reunification. Kim Jong Un has given more than 15 speeches and public statements since he assumed the power. According to an article published on May 1, 2013 in the North’s Ruling Party mouthpiece Rodong Sinmun (attributed to Kim Jong-un), one of the first occasions he used “reform” in a positive connotation in a publicized written document. North Korean state controlled media excessively showed the young leader’s footage in different programs aimed at boosting the popularity of the young new leader. Media has praised his daily activities and tried to promote the cult of personality. The media has also been frequently showing the pictures of Young leader with his fashionable wife, former singer Ri sol Ju. Kim holds the legacy, maintaining the power of whole country and strengthening the personality cult. The young leader has not changed the course of policy but his ruling style is different from his father.
Reformist in Key Post
North Korea remains as one of the world’s least developed countries. The young leader’s priority has been to strengthen the country’s economy. North Korean economy has sharply hit the UN tight sanctions and the persistent severe food shortages. Kim has been struggling to revive its centrally planned crumbling economy since he assumed the power. Kim has chosen a new premier Pak Pong-ju, who reportedly favored Chinese-style reforms. Reformist premier re-emergence showed Kim the economic policy changing interest. It has been widely believed that Pak’s appointment is likely to reform North Korean economy. He was appointed as premier in 2003, and North Korea passed modest economic reforms but rolled-back by 2005. North Korea also changed some government and party leadership at both the Central Committee plenum and Supreme People’s Assembly meeting but some vital ministry replaced more hardliner also.
Replacement of Senior Military hardliner
North Korea is the world’s most heavily militarized society and nuclear-armed state. The one million regular military has been the backbone of Kim’s power. North Korea has “military first” policy as a principle guiding ideology and political and economic life. Military dominates all affairs of the country. According to North Korean Ruling Workers Party mouth piece, on April 2012, Rodong Sinmun Kim Jong Un promoted 70 officers to the rank of general. After some months, the young leader surprised everyone by removing the vice-marshal and chief of general staff of the Korean people’s army, Ri Yong-ho, who was a key pillar of Kim’s Power succession after the death of his father Kim Jong-il. One of eight members of the regime’s inner circle who escorted the hearse at his state funeral of Kim father and the most powerful man on country Ri was major player of senior military figures pledge allegiance to Kim Jong-un leadership in transition phase of power succession. According to the South Korean Unification Ministry figure, since the rising to power in December 2011, Kim Jong Un has replaced nearly half of the country’s 218 top military, party and government officials. He is trying to maintain by strengthening his regime in personal order and authority.
Boost the cell phone subscriber
According to government official source, there are some 2 million North Korean mobile user subscribers. The most isolated people have recently accessed to the country’s expensive mobile phone but international calls are banned. Mobile services are well enough in the capital and other cities but internet access is limited because they are too expensive. Mobile phones costs nearly $200. Recently North Korea has claimed of manufacturing hand phones. According to North Korea’s government news agency KCNA, the phone named is “Arirang,” and feature is Android that runs a version with a camera. KCNA released news and photos that Kim Jong Un visited the mobile factory in May 11, 2013. The official name of the 3G mobile phone service in Koryolink a state owned and joint venture of Orascom. Since 2008 December, an Egyptian company Orascom operated the mobile in North Korea. In 2002, North Korea started a joint venture with a Thai company to manufacture mobile phones at the Rajin-Sonbon special economic zone. But the service was stopped.
Booming the entertainment construction
The secretive state under the new young leadership is also trying to build a lot of entertainment and tourism sites aimed at boosting foreign travelers and investors. Recently, North Korea opened a luxury multi-million dollar ski resort – purpose is clear – to encourage more tourism and boosting the business. The first North Korean mega project – the ski resort is built with just a 10-month initiation of the New Leader. The 70 miles multi-level ski runs a hotel, helipad and cable cars. The resort’s two hotels will consist of a 250-room, eight-storey building for foreigners and a 150-room hotel for Koreans, according to media. North Korean ski season does not begin until December.
The new water park – PyongyangPleasurePark in east Pyongyang opened in October 2013. The roughly 27 acres has a water park, touring slides, wading pools, restaurants, 3D movies, play arcade games and drive dodgem cars facility. Another RungaTheme Park in Pyongyang was the first Kim Jong Un inaugurated park in August, 2012. There are highly trained dolphins to roller-coasters, water-park to a mini-golf course, water slide, beach volleyball, basket-ball and volleyball courts in the park.
North Korea had no entertainment parks since 1984. The KaesonYouthPark was built with the technical and financial support of Russia and China. But the new young ruler has been trying to boost the country’s image and popularity. North Korea is also building a mini-golf theme park and hotels are also being renovated. North Korea is also trying to build new fitness centers, duty-free shops, and world class restaurant, according to the government media.
Transformation of Culture
Music, film and art are often state-controlled in North Korea. However, in recent times under the new leadership, music and art have made a leap forward. Music, art and films in North Korea, which used to focus and reflect much of the country’s traditions, now, are more inclined towards modernity. Moranbong Band (named formed capital Pyongyang district Moranbong like South Korean Gangam Syle) – female music group was organized in 2012 by new Leader Kim Jong-un. The Moranbong Band’s first performance was a surprise during its inaugural concert in July 2012. Disney characters in the background, short skirts, trendy hair girl, colorful stage lighting, pop music with an electric band culture transformation scene showed the whole world.
The modern stylist and new leader established the Moranbong Band which replaced the traditional Unhasu Orchestra, which was founded directly by late Leader Kim Jong Ill in 2009. The band had disappeared from public since August. North Korean News agency KCNA attributed leader Kim Jong Un about a new band as required by the new century.
The films used to depict the country’s history, revolution, military, or military-oriented plot, and even supported the state and the party, or aimed at boosting the image of a leader. But in recent times, the whole theme has changed with the films beginning to prioritize on love and sentiments with pop and western-styled music as ingredients. The film “Comrade Kim Goes Flying” is one of the movies breaking the traditional method.
Use of Internet and electric gadget
North Korea is trying to boost the electronic gadgets, digital cameras, DVD players, pen drives among other electric items. Named as Samjiyon – the home made touch-screen contains an analog TV receiver tablet, which costs nearly $250. It operates on an Android operating system and is equipped with Angry Birds, ebooks, Microsoft Office.
North Korea has some broadband, including optical fiber links between major institutions producing nationwide speeds of up to 2.5 Gbit/s. The free domestic Kwangmyong network has a limited access to the global Internet Limited. But the number of registered IP addresses is just over a thousand.
North Korean domestic intranet system “Kwangmyong” developed by the KoreaComputerCenter has been offering mostly to connect universities, cybercafés and other government institution hosting websites and e-mails.
Changing the Public Life
It’s very difficult to verify the whole North Korean lifestyle but in capital Pyongyang, the lifestyle has been changing. People are becoming fashion conscious. Fashionable people are seen in the capital’s restaurants and parks. But foreigners are constantly accompanied by government guides and are not allowed to speak to people. North Korean government is not capable to provide basic services like food, medicine and other fundamental necessities.
According to South Korean parliamentary report, North Korea’s import of luxury goods has seen a sharp increase during the new leadership’s time.
North Korean Nuclear Diplomacy & denuclearization possibility
October 23rd, 2013
By Pramod Raj Sedhain.
Over the last two decades of United States’ negotiation concerning North Korean nuclear abandoning program, nothing concrete has been achieved so far. The limited option is ‘denuclearization’ talks yet again. The collapse of US-North’s 1994 agreement in 2002, North Korea claimed that it had withdrawn from the Non-proliferation Treaty in January 2003 and once again it began operating its nuclear facilities. Under this agreement, Pyongyang committed to freezing its illicit plutonium weapons program in exchange for aid. After failing to engage in diplomatic effort, the U. S. had prepared for military intervention in North Korea. However, this response is highly risky and imposed to wide-ranging sanctions and export controls. Since 2003 August 27, multiple rounds of negotiations have taken place between the two Koreas, China, US, Russia and Japan aimed at persuading Pyongyang to give up its nuclear ambitions, but North Korea is likely to remain a nuclear power.
Ten years after the major diplomatic efforts resulted to the ‘six-party talks’. China initiated multilateral efforts to end North’s nuclear program. Since the withdrawal from the six-way talks in 2009, the North conducted two more nuclear bomb tests as well as three long-range missile launches as part of the country’s development of inter-continental ballistic missiles – on October 9, 2006, May 25, 2009 and 12 February 2013. North Korea announced that it had conducted successful nuclear tests – they all came after the North was sanctioned by the UN. The talks aimed at persuading North Korea to give up its nuclear ambitions, however, yielded no results due to their respective stance.
Analysts believe that the first two tests used plutonium as the fissile material. The North is believed to possess enough weapons-grade plutonium for at least six bombs. The 2013 test was indeed larger in force than previous. The third nuclear test on February 12, 2013 was a miniaturized warhead. Ever since North Korea warned that a third test would be a “high level” one, there has been speculation that it might involve a uranium device. Washington’s previous attempts to denuclearize the North also ended in failure when the North defaulted in 2002 on the Agreed Framework, under which the North agreed in 1994 with the U.S. to freeze its plutonium-producing nuclear facilities. Now North Korean growing nuclear capacities control mechanism is nearly ended and it’s nuclear-armed Nation.
Recent satellite imagery showed that the country has doubled the size of its uranium enrichment facilities there, an indication that it will further increase weapon-grade uranium. Over half a century febrile rhetoric of high US officials inspire the North Korean Nuclear Motivation and deterrent. Since the Korean War, the United States’ unceasing pressure on North Korea sets as objective the collapse of the North Korean government. North Korea Massive defense expenditures, since carrying out its third nuclear test in February 2013, North Korea has responded furiously to UN sanctions.
Nuclear Threat: change itself
There is no another nation in the globe that has been exposed to the nuclear threat so directly and for so long as the North Korea. During the Korean War, US President Harry Truman announced that the use of nuclear weapons was under active consideration; US Air Force bombers flew nuclear rehearsal runs over Pyongyang; and US commander General Douglas MacArthur planned to drop 30 to 50 atomic bombs across the northern neck of the Korean Peninsula to block Chinese intervention. Washington threatened other countries with nuclear attack on 25 separate occasions between 1970 and 2010, and 14 occasions between 1990 and 2010. On six of these occasions, the United States threatened the North Korea.
United States record of issuing threats of nuclear attack against other countries over this period is – Iraq-7, China- 4, the USSR – 4, Libya – 2, Iran, 1, Syria- 1. In the late 1960s, nuclear-armed US warplanes were maintained on 15-minute alert to strike North Korea. In 1975, US Defense Secretary James Schlesinger acknowledged for the first time that US nuclear weapons were deployed in South Korea. Addressing the North Koreans, he warned, “I do not think it would be wise to test (US) reactions.” In February 1993, Lee Butler, head of the US Strategic Command, announced the United States was retargeting hydrogen bombs aimed at the old USSR on North Korea (and other targets.) One month later, North Korea withdrew from the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty.
On July 22, 1993, US President Bill Clinton said if North Korea developed and used nuclear weapons “we would quickly and overwhelmingly retaliate. It would mean the end of their country as we know it.” In 1995, and in 2003, after the fall of Baghdad, the US warned Iran, Syria and North Korea to “draw the appropriate lesson from Iraq.” Colin Powell, who had served as chairman of the US joints chiefs of staff and would later serve as US secretary of state, warned the North Koreans that the United States had the means to turn their country into “a charcoal briquette.” In April 2010, US defense secretary Leon Panetta refused to rule out a US nuclear attack on North Korea, saying, “all options are on the table.” On February 13, 2013, Panetta described North Korea as “a threat to the United States, to regional stability, and to global security.” He added: “Make no mistake. The US military will take all necessary steps to meet our security commitments to the Republic of Korea and to our regional allies.”
An article in the February 22, 2013 issue of Rodong Sinmun – the official newspaper of North Korea’s ruling Workers Party say – “Gone are the days of US nuclear blackmail” observed that “Had it not been the nuclear deterrence of our own, the U.S. would have already launched a war on the peninsula as it had done in Iraq and Libya and plunged it into a sorry plight as the Balkan at the end of last century and Afghanistan early in this century.”
North Nuclear Deterrence & US option
Neither North Korea nor the U.S. truly wish dialogue and negotiations result. U.S. sees nothing new in North Korea’s offer to talk and offered talks with the North but only on the pre-condition they abandon their nuclear weapon ambitions. The North Korea called nuclear weapons arsenal is “the nation’s life, they believe that abandoning their nuclear program would be suicidal. The North Korea Vows to Keep Nuclear Arms and said “is neither a political bargaining chip nor a thing for economic dealings”.
In 2012 April, North Korea identified itself as a nuclear power when it revised its Constitution. After the United Nations Security Council imposed more sanctions of a long-range rocket in December and its third nuclear test in 2013 February, it said it would no longer attend talks on dismantling its nuclear program. Every year’s in a joint US South Korean Military Exercise nuclear capable bombers flew offered a demonstration of American air power as part of the exercises. North Korean solidified military credentials with Nuclear weapon and build nuclear weapons to deter a US military conquest. Due to nuclear weapons, North Korea need not worry about attacks from other countries, including the U.S. Now North Korea develops a credible threat to launch nuclear-tipped ballistic missile warheads against the United States and its allies, but control option is sharply limited. Military Measure is go far & only reliable option is endless negotiations.
Another threat: Missile
North Korea’s missile capabilities have also raised eyebrows in the international arena. North Korea is believed to have all types of short, medium, intermediate and intercontinental missile capabilities. North Korea is a mystery to Western intelligence agencies. North Korea fired a rocket into orbit last December. Many countries suspected it was a long-range missile, the Unha-3. Its launch showed it had the capacity to deliver a rocket that could travel 10,000 km, according to an intelligence assessment by South Korea.
According to U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency report, North Korea currently has nuclear weapons capable of delivering ballistic missiles. It means North Korea has been able to carry out their nuclear technology with their missiles. North Korea is believed to have Taepodong-2 (Intercontinental 5,000-15,000km Range Missile), Taepodong-1 (Intermediate 2,500 – 6,000 km Range) Musudan-1 (Intermediate 4,000 km Range), Nodong-1 ( Medium 1,600 km Range, Liquid-fueled, road-mobile missile with a 650 kg warhead, GPS guidance), Nodong-2 (Medium 2,000 km Range), Hwasong-5 ( Short 330Km Range, Road-mobile, liquid-fueled missile), Hwasong-6 (Short -700 km Range, 750 kg smaller warhead Carried), KN-1 (Short 160km Range, anti-ship cruise missile), KN-2 Toksa (Short Range solid-fueled, highly accurate mobile missile). U.S. have 28,000 solder in South Korea, 36,700 in Japan and 4,300 in Guam, it is potential North Korean missile threat.
French Military Intervention in Africa: Moral responsibility
October 17th, 2013
By Pramod Sedhain.
After successful French military operation against extremists Islamist in Mali’s this year, the former French colonies – Central African Republic (CAR) sought another humanitarian intervention from France. However, France refused to intervene and sought diplomatic, political and peace negotiation options. The rich natural resources landlocked CAR problem worsened. France tried to intervention within the legal and moral framework of the United Nations (UN) and the African Union (AU). Christian Majority CAR citizens faced massive sectarian violence, murder, rape, anarchy and impunity. The rule of law was absent since the crisis began and they eventually sought French humanitarian intervention.
France’s Foreign Minister, Laurent Fabius was given a warm welcome by the locals and cheered for French help. They displayed banners that read: “Let’s make up with the mother that feeds us! President Hollande, we want your help!”. The 4.6 million population and 620,000 square kilometers country that plunged into anarchy by a coup five months ago, could become a haven for Islamist extremist groups and Joseph Kony’s Lord’s Resistance Army. In March, the rebel groups known as Seleka came together to overthrow the long-time President Francois Bozize.
This poorest country is currently ruled by former rebel leader Michel Djotodia – the first Muslim to run the country. He has vowed to stand down once elections are held at the start of 2015. According to UN, about 1.6 million people are in dire need of food, protection, healthcare, water, shelter and other assistance. More than 206,000 people are displaced within the country, with many hiding in the bush. Nearly 60,000 have sought refuge in neighboring states.
The Security Council has described the situation as “a total breakdown of law and order”. The country’s crisis sees a possible split of its borders. Fifty percent of the population of CAR are Christians, 35 percent of the population maintain indigenous beliefs and 15 percent are Islam. The UN estimates that approximately 11 percent of the population aged between 15 and 49 is HIV positive, and only 3 percent of the country has antiretroviral therapy available. The nation is large and divided into several ethnic groups. There are is over 80 ethnic groups. Analysts fear of CAR strategic and geographically at the center and called “arc of insecurity” of Islamist fighters that cuts from Kenya and Somalia in east Africa across to Mauritania in the west.
There are 400 French contingents securing the airport and resource areas. After the U.N. Security Council votes in December on a resolution to strengthen a U.N. mission, it could increase the total French force to between 700 to 1,200. Paris is to seek a U.N. Security Council mandate that would turn the operation into a U.N. peacekeeping force supported by French troops. An African Union force soon to number 2,600 and composed of forces from neighboring states including Chad, Gabon, Congo Republic and Cameroon has deployed as part of the 3,600-strong U.N. mission known by the acronym MISCA. French President Francois Hollande said on Monday: “We thought it necessary to mobilize the AU and the UN Security Council to…[have] a force to help the Central African Republic reach stability”. He said the goal is “to avoid new tragedies.”
France plays a truly responsible guardian role in the post colonial African region. French military is one of the world’s credible, equipped and most sophisticated forces, one well acquainted with operations in Africa. Since the 1960’s, France has responsibly intervened over 50 times in former colonies of the African countries. More than four thousand French military personnel are garrisoned at bases in Senegal, Gabon and Djibouti. And there are still more French troops in Chad, Ivory Coast and the Central African Republic. French post-colonial African military present maintains regional stability, promote democracy, support legitimate governments, supports anti-terrorism and development. French troops across the African continent, risk their life to maintain stability and anti- terrorism effort from western Senegal to the Horn of Africa.
French influence in the African region is the necessity of international security demand and world peace. France need to maintain its military influence in the region until terrorism threat is defeated and regional instability restored. France reserves the right to unilateral action (without other western superpower support) in Africa with international legal framework, which reduce dangerous threat. Several French African Military operation has received regional welcome and massive support.
Nearly half of the French peacekeeping force is deployed in Africa in both military and advisory capacities. France conducts joint maneuvers and peacekeeping training through the Reinforcement of African Peacekeeping Capacities (RECAMP) program. French effective military and diplomatic presence in Africa will help reduce regional conflict. The world must understand and get convinced to accept the French contribution in Africa. Africa remains an important and longstanding French strategic priority region. An African affair is primary importance to French foreign and strategic policy.
France has better understanding of Africa than other world powers. Relations between France and Africa have traditionally been close; people in Africa spread across 31 Francophone countries, most speak French as a first language. French also know the African geographical locality, common linguistic and cultural identities. France has encouraged democracy across the continent and it shows diplomatic capacities, which is cordial in geopolitical scenario. French military size present in the region has been sharply decreased because of its budgetary and strategic change since 1990’s.
The 2013 edition of French white paper on defense and national security mention the preference for operations in which African-led forces are backed by French specialized forces and technology. White paper clearly maintains that France will maintain its presence in African countries and indicate the interventions will still be limited and consistent with the maintenance of international security norms in countries that fall within France’s areas of interest, mainly West and Central Africa. France’s strategy is one of ‘prevention and projection’ (emphasizes the using of smallest force possible, optimizing use of military technology, prioritizing intelligence, and pre-positioning forces in a region to respond quickly to crises), this strategy is implementation of current force deployments in African region . French sophisticated military capabilities are necessary to protect its own interest and providing the support of legitimate government and regional stability urgently as African Country need and demand.