Posts by SteveHach:
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By Steve Hach.
stocks: PX, GTXI, SNTS, AMRI, WLP, HUM, VRX,TEVA, ALR, ACAD, TEAR, AVNR, DRTX, SRPTVALUATION WARNING: Our models find that overvaluation is at levels typically seen when market pullbacks occur. Overvalued stocks now make up almost 76% of our stocks assigned a valuation and 43% of those equities are calculated to be overvalued by 20% or more. 15 of 16 sectors are calculated to be overvalued–13 of them by double digits.
MARKET OVERVIEW
Index Week Open Thurs. Close Change % Change YTD DJIA 15651.98 15498.3 -153.68 -0.98% 17.83% NASDAQ 3682.67 3669.12 -13.55 -0.37% 21.53% RUSSELL 2000 1059.09 1049.47 -9.62 -0.91% 23.63% S&P 500 1708.01 1697.48 -10.53 -0.62% 18.84% Summary of VE Stock Universe Stocks Undervalued 24.17% Stocks Overvalued 75.83% Stocks Undervalued by 20% 10.02% Stocks Overvalued by 20% 43.02% SECTOR OVERVIEW
Sector Change MTD YTD Valuation Last 12-MReturn P/E Ratio Aerospace 0.20% 1.91% 28.37% 20.87% overvalued 36.99% 18.18 Auto-Tires-Trucks 1.34% 1.29% 39.57% 26.52% overvalued 42.27% 18.07 Basic Materials 2.36% -0.08% 1.91% 9.88% undervalued -25.42% 19.07 Business Services 0.56% 0.59% 74.20% 18.17% overvalued 26.87% 23.53 Computer and Technology 0.16% 1.39% 29.02% 20.98% overvalued 23.95% 30.14 Construction 0.64% 0.64% 31.38% 14.64% overvalued 34.54% 24.29 Consumer Discretionary 0.38% 1.56% 31.26% 24.11% overvalued 31.93% 24.46 Consumer Staples 0.60% 1.17% 18.59% 20.75% overvalued 23.94% 22.08 Finance 0.35% 0.08% 25.12% 18.93% overvalued 16.74% 17.82 Industrial Products 0.50% 2.02% 35.80% 19.14% overvalued 30.06% 20.95 Medical -0.12% 1.77% 202.47% 18.30% overvalued 25.24% 26.34 Multi-Sector Conglomerates 0.41% 0.63% 5.66% 14.35% overvalued 13.42% 17.52 Oils-Energy 0.54% -1.11% 25.40% 3.82% overvalued 3.17% 27.08 Retail-Wholesale 0.41% -0.26% 33.73% 23.45% overvalued 36.49% 23.27 Transportation 0.48% -0.02% 22.77% 21.14% overvalued 24.43% 20.52 Utilities 0.55% 2.15% 15.36% 10.34% overvalued 10.84% 19.96 ValuEngine Newsletters Latest Results
VE Newsletter Current Month Total S&P 500 Last Month Total S&P 500 Since Inception S&P 500 Forecast MNS 2.99 0.89 3.56 2.62 91.13 84.17 Dividend Stock -0.28 0.12 8.47 6.76 8.47 6.76 Small Cap Stock -1.67 0.30 13.82 3.9 39.26 22.03 View 0.43 1.27 4.51 1.48 75.27 48.02 Sector Talk-MedicalBelow, we present the latest data on leading Medical Sector stocks from our Institutional software package (VEI). These results were filtered by market price and volume–no results below 3$/share or less than 100k shares/day volume.
Top-Five Medical Sector Stocks–Short-Term Forecast Returns
Ticker Name Mkt Price Valuation(%) Last 12-M Retn(%) PLX PROTALIX BIOTHR 5.19 N/A -10.67 GTXI GTX INC 4.2 -28.07 23.17 RHHBY ROCHE HLDG LTD 63.47 N/A 42.15 SNTS SANTARUS INC 26.74 6.35 310.12 AMRI ALBANY MOL RSCH 12.15 4.61 299.67 Top-Five Medical Sector Stocks–Long-Term Forecast Returns
Ticker Name Mkt Price Valuation(%) Last 12-M Retn(%) PLX PROTALIX BIOTHR 5.19 N/A -10.67 GTXI GTX INC 4.2 -28.07 23.17 RHHBY ROCHE HLDG LTD 63.47 N/A 42.15 SNTS SANTARUS INC 26.74 6.35 310.12 AMRI ALBANY MOL RSCH 12.15 4.61 299.67 Top-Five Medical Sector Stocks–Composite Score
Ticker Name Mkt Price Valuation(%) Last 12-M Retn(%) WLP WELLPOINT INC 87.74 8.88 52.75 HUM HUMANA INC NEW 93.79 3.43 38.66 VRX VALEANT PHARMA 101.68 -1.57 101.91 TEVA TEVA PHARM ADR 39.15 -16.12 -2.73 ALR ALERE INC 31.29 -10.62 70.05 Top-Five Medical Sector Stocks–Most Overvalued
Ticker Name Mkt Price Valuation(%) Last 12-M Retn(%) ACAD ACADIA PHARMA 19.78 300 1218.67 TEAR TEARLAB CORP 12.12 300 263.96 AVNR AVANIR PHARM 4.59 300 58.28 DRTX DURATA THERAPT 7.79 300 4.19 SRPT SAREPTA THERAP 36.85 228.22 372.44 Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
Applied Materials Still Tops NASDAQ
October 7th, 2016
By Steve Hach.
ValuEngine tracks more than 7000 US equities, ADRs, and foreign stock which trade on US exchanges as well as @1000 Canadian equities. When EPS estimates are available for a given equity, our model calculates a level of mispricing or valuation percentage for that equity based on earnings estimates and what the stock should be worth if the market were totally rational and efficient–an academic exercise to be sure, but one which allows for useful comparisons between equities, sectors, and industries. Using our Valuation Model, we can currently assign a VE valuation calculation to more than 2800 stocks in our US Universe.
We also use trading data to provide forecast estimates for a variety of time horizons for almost ever equity in our database. Our Buy/Sell/Hold recommendations are based upon the 1-year forecast return figure. Using valuation and forecast figures, you can rank and rate our covered stocks against each other, to find out, in an objective and systematic way, the most attractive investment targets based on your own risk/reward parameters. We re-calculate the entire database every trading day, so you are assured that every proprietary valuation and forecast datapoint is as up-to-date as possible.
We can use our data to track individual stocks, industries, sectors, and indices. For today’s bulletin, we present key metrics for the top picks in the NASDAQ 100. The companies listed below represent the top-ten BUY and STRONG BUY stocks within the index. They are presented below according to their one-month forecast target prices.
As we also saw in our last report in August. we see very little turnover here. Once again, we have only two new companies in out top-ten list–Amgen and Ebay. The newcomers replaced MicroChip Technology (MCHP) and Texas Instruments (TXN). Applied Materials is once again number one. Netease has moved up three spots to takeover the number two position. Cisco is also up from eighth-to-sixth. LAM Research, Broadcom, Facebook, and CA Inc have all declined a few spots this month. As is always the case, this tech-heavy index features a top-ten list dominated by computer and technology firms.
|
Ticker
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Company Name
|
Market Price
|
Valuation
|
Last 12-M Retrn
|
1-M Forecast Retn
|
1-Yr Forecast Retn
|
P/E Ratio
|
Sector
|
8-11-2016 Leaders
|
|
AMAT
|
APPLD MATLS INC
|
29.84
|
-21.18%
|
85.51%
|
1.21%
|
14.62%
|
21.47
|
Computer and Technology
|
AMAT
|
|
NTES
|
NETEASE INC
|
211.97
|
2.93%
|
90.65%
|
1.03%
|
12.32%
|
18.72
|
Computer and Technology
|
LRCX
|
|
LRCX
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LAM RESEARCH
|
93.32
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2.70%
|
28.24%
|
0.86%
|
10.25%
|
14.67
|
Computer and Technology
|
AVGO
|
|
INTC
|
INTEL CORP
|
35.89
|
8.64%
|
25.75%
|
0.67%
|
8.06%
|
14.26
|
Computer and Technology
|
INTC
|
|
AVGO
|
BROADCOM LTD
|
176.42
|
4.89%
|
40.05%
|
0.67%
|
8.05%
|
19.67
|
Computer and Technology
|
NTES
|
|
CSCO
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CISCO SYSTEMS
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31.44
|
4.16%
|
21.48%
|
0.66%
|
7.91%
|
14.62
|
Computer and Technology
|
FB
|
|
FB
|
FACEBOOK INC-A
|
126.12
|
-12.28%
|
41.03%
|
0.61%
|
7.37%
|
52.26
|
Computer and Technology
|
MCHP
|
|
AMGN
|
AMGEN INC
|
170.06
|
-8.56%
|
12.04%
|
0.55%
|
6.56%
|
15.33
|
Medical
|
CSCO
|
|
EBAY
|
eBAY INC
|
32.16
|
-8.18%
|
18.63%
|
0.51%
|
6.08%
|
20.31
|
Retail-Wholesale
|
CA
|
|
CA
|
CA INC
|
33.91
|
17.49%
|
24.26%
|
0.47%
|
5.63%
|
14.89
|
Computer and Technology
|
TXN
|
NOTE: New stocks are in BOLD, old stocks that have moved up the list are in GREEN, old stocks that have declined in position are in RED, and stocks which have retained their position are in CAPS. There are no STRONG BUY companies in this list, all stocks are rated BUY
Below is today’s data on eBAY (EBAY):
eBay is one of the world’s largest online trading communities. eBay creates a powerful marketplace for the sale of goods and services by a passionate community of individuals and small businesses. eBay enables trade on a local, national and international basis with local sites in numerous markets in the United States and country-specific sites in the United Kingdom, Canada, Germany, Austria, France, Italy, Japan, Korea and Australia.
VALUENGINE RECOMMENDATION: ValuEngine continues its BUY recommendation on EBAY INC for 2016-08-31. Based on the information we have gathered and our resulting research, we feel that EBAY INC has the probability to OUTPERFORM average market performance for the next year. The company exhibits ATTRACTIVE Company Size and Momentum.
You can download a free copy of detailed report on eBAY (EBAY) from the link below.
|
ValuEngine Forecast
|
||
|
Target
Price* |
Expected
Return |
|
|---|---|---|
|
1-Month
|
32.32 | 0.51% |
|
3-Month
|
32.33 | 0.54% |
|
6-Month
|
32.30 | 0.43% |
|
1-Year
|
34.12 | 6.08% |
|
2-Year
|
30.07 | -6.51% |
|
3-Year
|
28.32 | -11.94% |
|
Valuation & Rankings
|
|||
|
Valuation
|
8.18% undervalued
|
Valuation Rank(?)
|
 63 |
|
1-M Forecast Return
|
0.51%
|
1-M Forecast Return Rank
|
85 |
|
12-M Return
|
18.63%
|
Momentum Rank(?)
|
74 |
|
Sharpe Ratio
|
-0.02
|
Sharpe Ratio Rank(?)
|
50 |
|
5-Y Avg Annual Return
|
-1.00%
|
5-Y Avg Annual Rtn Rank
|
50 |
|
Volatility
|
42.43%
|
Volatility Rank(?)
|
43 |
|
Expected EPS Growth
|
6.32%
|
EPS Growth Rank(?)
|
36 |
|
Market Cap (billions)
|
39.95
|
Size Rank
|
98 |
|
Trailing P/E Ratio
|
20.31
|
Trailing P/E Rank(?)
|
60 |
|
Forward P/E Ratio
|
19.10
|
Forward P/E Ratio Rank
|
37 |
|
PEG Ratio
|
3.22
|
PEG Ratio Rank
|
15 |
|
Price/Sales
|
4.55
|
Price/Sales Rank(?)
|
22 |
|
Market/Book
|
21.12
|
Market/Book Rank(?)
|
7 |
|
Beta
|
0.99
|
Beta Rank
|
46 |
|
Alpha
|
0.07
|
Alpha Rank
|
72ValuEngine Market Overview |
|
Summary of VE Stock Universe
|
|
|
Stocks Undervalued
|
52.55%
|
|
Stocks Overvalued
|
47.45%
|
|
Stocks Undervalued by 20%
|
22.16%
|
|
Stocks Overvalued by 20%
|
15.32%
|
ValuEngine Sector Overview
|
Sector
|
Change
|
MTD
|
YTD
|
Valuation
|
Last 12-MReturn
|
P/E Ratio
|
|
0.03%
|
2.04%
|
9.54%
|
12.82% overvalued
|
5.08%
|
20.67
|
|
|
-0.52%
|
1.23%
|
10.41%
|
9.36% overvalued
|
14.05%
|
23.92
|
|
|
-0.31%
|
3.08%
|
16.36%
|
6.74% overvalued
|
9.20%
|
23.09
|
|
|
-0.99%
|
-0.91%
|
45.22%
|
3.81% overvalued
|
52.53%
|
31.58
|
|
|
0.04%
|
3.50%
|
15.39%
|
2.06% overvalued
|
8.51%
|
29.13
|
|
|
-0.22%
|
1.23%
|
0.60%
|
1.94% overvalued
|
-0.02%
|
21.20
|
|
|
-0.41%
|
-2.67%
|
10.90%
|
1.19% overvalued
|
13.85%
|
21.95
|
|
|
0.38%
|
2.82%
|
7.32%
|
0.88% overvalued
|
5.29%
|
16.32
|
|
|
-0.26%
|
2.76%
|
16.31%
|
0.67% undervalued
|
-11.00%
|
25.18
|
|
|
0.43%
|
1.31%
|
30.61%
|
1.41% undervalued
|
12.27%
|
21.15
|
|
|
0.49%
|
0.23%
|
11.20%
|
2.01% undervalued
|
-14.57%
|
14.58
|
|
|
0.01%
|
1.58%
|
9.05%
|
2.20% undervalued
|
0.01%
|
24.04
|
|
|
0.35%
|
1.54%
|
9.35%
|
5.40% undervalued
|
1.10%
|
24.74
|
|
|
0.34%
|
2.17%
|
4.84%
|
8.10% undervalued
|
4.10%
|
16.48
|
|
|
-0.32%
|
1.64%
|
2.11%
|
9.70% undervalued
|
-3.43%
|
23.23
|
|
|
0.04%
|
-0.59%
|
0.66%
|
10.81% undervalued
|
-13.90%
|
27.65
|
Comments Off on Applied Materials Still Tops NASDAQ
Apple Announces New iPhone Models, ValuEngine Still Rates Stock A Hold
October 15th, 2013
By Steve Hach.
VALUATION WATCH: Our models find that overvaluation is at levels typically seen when market pullbacks occur. Overvalued stocks assigned a valuation now make up almost 78% of our universe and 44% of the stocks assigned a valuation are calculated to be overvalued by 20% or more. 15 of 16 sectors are calculated to be overvalued–14 of them by double digits.
Apple Harvest
–Apple Announces New iPhone Models, ValuEngine Still Rates Stock a Hold
Apple Inc. (AAPL) is engaged in designing, manufacturing and marketing mobile communication and media devices, personal computers, and portable digital music players. The Company’s products and services include iPhone, iPad, Mac, iPod, Apple TV, a portfolio of consumer and professional software applications, the iOS and Mac OS X operating systems, iCloud, and a range of accessory, service and support offerings. It sells its products worldwide through its online stores, its retail stores, its direct sales force, third-party wholesalers, and resellers. Apple Inc. is headquartered in Cupertino, California.
Apple held another one of their product announcement conferences yesterday. Fanboys rejoiced at the news of two new iPhone models, the iPhone 5s and iPhone 5c. As is typical, the new models feature better processors, battery life, and some cosmetic changes. Probably the most notable news from the latest product announcement is that the iPhone 5c is NOT the “cheap iPhone” many tech analysts predicted. Indeed, the iPhone 5c, which features a machined (not molded) plastic case, is going to be much cheaper to manufacture, but it will not be sold at much of a discount vs the iPhone 5s (@ $100 less). Production will also be faster, allowing the company a better chance of meeting the expected high demand for the device. Thus, Apple will keep margins high on these coveted devices and be better able to strike while the market is hot. Wall St seems rather non-plussed at the news and the stock is currently down almost 5% on the day and several large banks have downgraded the stock.
ValuEngine continues its HOLD recommendation on APPLE INC for 2013-09-10. Based on the information we have gathered and our resulting research, we feel that APPLE INC has the probability to ROUGHLY MATCH average market performance for the next year. The company exhibits ATTRACTIVE Company Size but UNATTRACTIVE Momentum.
Below is today’s data on AAPL:
| ValuEngine Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Target Price* | Expected Return | |
| 1-Month | 495.69 | 0.21% |
| 3-Month | 500.72 | 1.23% |
| 6-Month | 502.74 | 1.64% |
| 1-Year | 507.22 | 2.54% |
| 2-Year | 574.31 | 16.11% |
| 3-Year | 600.43 | 21.39% |
| Valuation | 9.53% overvalued | Valuation Rank | 61 |
| 1-M Forecast Return | 0.21% | 1-M Forecast Return Rank | 72 |
| 12-M Return | -25.36% | Momentum Rank | 18 |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.63 | Sharpe Ratio Rank | 95 |
| 5-Y Avg Annual Return | 20.93% | 5-Y Avg Annual Rtn Rank | 93 |
| Volatility | 33.29% | Volatility Rank | 72 |
| Expected EPS Growth | 7.39% | EPS Growth Rank | 31 |
| Market Cap (billions) | 464.29 | Size Rank | 100 |
| Trailing P/E Ratio | 12.57 | Trailing P/E Rank | 85 |
| Forward P/E Ratio | 11.7 | Forward P/E Ratio Rank | 77 |
| PEG Ratio | 1.7 | PEG Ratio Rank | 22 |
| Price/Sales | 2.74 | Price/Sales Rank | 33 |
| Market/Book | 3.95 | Market/Book Rank | 29 |
| Beta | 0.97 | Beta Rank | 58 |
| Alpha | -0.5 | Alpha Rank | 16 |
Market Overview
| Summary of VE Stock Universe | |
|---|---|
| Stocks Undervalued | 22.32% |
| Stocks Overvalued | 77.68% |
| Stocks Undervalued by 20% | 9.05% |
| Stocks Overvalued by 20% | 44.23% |
Sector Overview
| Sector | Change | MTD | YTD | Valuation | Last 12-MReturn | P/E Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aerospace | 1.00% | 3.50% | 30.49% | 22.75% overvalued | 35.26% | 18.49 |
| Auto-Tires-Trucks | 0.66% | 5.70% | 47.81% | 30.66% overvalued | 46.48% | 20.65 |
| Basic Materials | -0.09% | 3.31% | 5.19% | 2.01% undervalued | -24.33% | 19.62 |
| Business Services | 0.74% | 3.86% | 24.03% | 19.53% overvalued | 24.22% | 23.66 |
| Computer and Technology | 0.91% | 5.55% | 32.13% | 24.93% overvalued | 24.14% | 30.65 |
| Construction | 0.46% | 4.04% | 25.88% | 15.50% overvalued | 29.05% | 25.24 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 0.54% | 3.11% | 32.51% | 22.06% overvalued | 28.71% | 25.19 |
| Consumer Staples | 0.47% | 2.38% | 16.87% | 15.92% overvalued | 17.10% | 23.04 |
| Finance | 0.55% | 3.05% | 24.96% | 17.31% overvalued | 14.12% | 17.25 |
| Industrial Products | 0.96% | 4.10% | 29.18% | 20.69% overvalued | 28.33% | 22.51 |
| Medical | 0.38% | 2.37% | 36.11% | 21.29% overvalued | 23.71% | 25.43 |
| Multi-Sector Conglomerates | 0.99% | 5.17% | 9.30% | 21.12% overvalued | 17.24% | 17.58 |
| Oils-Energy | 0.27% | 3.94% | 23.27% | 7.58% overvalued | 6.02% | 26.73 |
| Retail-Wholesale | 1.11% | 4.03% | 34.04% | 22.25% overvalued | 32.51% | 23.59 |
| Transportation | 1.05% | 5.83% | 25.51% | 24.02% overvalued | 29.17% | 18.75 |
| Utilities | 0.88% | 2.40% | 11.47% | 7.36% overvalued | 6.73% | 19.25 |
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.