By Petra Posega.
Nuclear security is seemingly in the vanguard of global attention, but the large framework of international provisions is increasingly perceived as a toothless tiger. In the contemporary age where asymmetric threats to security are one of the most dangerous ones, the time is high to mitigate the risk of rogue actors having potential access to the materials necessary to develop nuclear weapons.
Nowhere is this urgency more pivotal than in already turbulent areas, such as the South Caucasus. With many areas of instability, some lasting for decades with no completely bulletproof conflict resolution process installed, adding to the threat of nuclear weapons proliferation and creating a house of cards that can cause complete collapse of regional peace and stability.
This is precisely why recently uncovered and reoccurring Armenian actions towards building a nuclear capacity must be addressed more seriously. They should also attract a bolder international response to ensure safety of the region is sustained.
According to a report by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Armenia has established quite a record of illegal trafficking of nuclear and other radioactive materials. There have been a couple of serious incidents spanning from 1999 onward. A large number of reported incidents occurred on the country’s border with Georgia, tempting the IAEA to conclude there is high probability that the so called Armenian route does in fact exist. There is also further evidence to support this assertion. For one, there was an unusually high number of Armenians caught in nuclear trafficking activities. Additionally, some of the reported incidents that made their way into the official reports suggest that the main focus of trafficking activities is in fact the smuggling of nuclear material which could be used for nuclear weapon capabilities. There were also reports suggesting the trafficking of other radioactive material that could be utilized for alternate purposes, such as the building of a so-called dirty bomb. Since the stakes with nuclear weaponry are always extremely high, this threat must not be dismissed.
Only days after the latest illegal activities were uncovered by border control in April, 2016, former Armenian Prime Minister Bagratyan shocked the international public with the claim that Armenia indeed has nuclear capabilities and the ability to further develop them. The main reason for the possession is to deter neighbors such as Turkey and Azerbaijan. More specifically, to discourage them from resorting to aggressive foreign policy measures and mitigate potential threats to Armenian territorial integrity, especially in the disputed regions. Even though Turkey and its intelligence network was quick to dismiss these claims and label them as a failed attempt to increase the geopolitical importance of Armenia, as well as to deter its much more militarily capable neighboring countries, such claims should not be taken lightly, either.
There is no cause for alarm yet. However, there should be increased interest from the international community in terms of investigating these serious claims. If substantiated, they would pose a grave destabilization factor in an already turbulent region. They would also trigger deepening of hostilities and mistrust in an extremely delicate regional framework.
The dangers stemming from the potential acquisition of a dirty bomb by rogue actors are rising on the international stage. Recently detected activities in the South Caucasus showed that there were substantial efforts being made in order to smuggle and illegally sell Uranium 238, which is highly radioactive. At the beginning of 2016, a different group was trying to smuggle a highly radioactive Cesium isotope that usually forms as a waste product in nuclear reactors. What is also worrying is that the majority of the activities are occurring in highly instable and unmonitored territories of Azerbaijan and Georgia, areas that are under the control of separatists, such as Nagorno- Karabakh and South Ossetia. The mere organization of the Armenian route proves to show that illegal activities can flourish in security blind spots of the region.
There is also the Iranian connection. Armenia borders this Middle Eastern country that found itself in the center of global attention leading up to the ratification of The Joint Comprehensive plan of Action in 2015. The international agreement supposedly effectively mitigated the risk of Teheran developing its own nuclear capabilities and established a proper international regime to monitor compliance on the deal’s provisions. However, fears remain over future developments surrounding this issue. The unusually high number of truck traffic between Armenia and Iran further fuels suspicion on what exactly goes down under the cloak of darkness.
Iran is not the only powerful ally of Armenia that has knowledge on all things nuclear. Yerevan has remained extremely close with Russia since the breakup of the former Soviet Union, and fully relies on Moscow when it comes to upholding its security, territorial integrity, and political autonomy. Russia is of course a member of the elite nuclear club, and besides the US holds one of the largest stockpiles of nuclear weapons in the world. This is of course a leftover of the Cold war era and fears of the Eastern or the Western devil, depending on which side of the wall the threat was being perceived.
It is worrying to note that some of the nuclear material that was trying to find its way into Armenia through South Ossetia has been, at least according to some reports, traced back to Russian nuclear facilities. This is of course of small wonder, since Russia is an official supplier of nuclear fuel for the only nuclear power plant in Armenia, the Metsamor nuclear plant that supplies roughly 40% of electricity to the country`s population.
But the reactor itself falls into another aspect of nuclear threats posed by Armenia, specifically nuclear safety threats. The reactor is extremely outdated, and there are no proper safeguards and safety mechanisms installed that would ensure adequate monitoring of its operations and recognition of potential faults in the system.
The world just marked the thirtieth anniversary of the devastating Chernobyl accident, and it is unsettling to know there is high risk of a similar disaster in the adjacent area. Nuclear safety, like nuclear security, should be taken extremely seriously. Any outdated systems, like the one at the Metsamor nuclear plant, should be either closed down until repaired and adjusted to proper security standards, or shut down completely if the plant is unable to follow necessary legal provisions. To make the future prospects even grimmer, the area where the Metsamor plant is located is being said to have notable seismic activities. Thus, not only is the plant dangerous due to outdated security systems and technology, but also due to naturally occurring phenomenon that could cause significant damage to the plant itself. Armenian officials should protect their own population and not risk a nuclear holocaust. Instead, they continue to stubbornly extend their self-entrapment grand ambitions.
Reviewing the manifold danger that Armenia represent in nuclear terms, there are no simple answers, although there are a few clear conclusions. The Metsamor power plant should be considered an imminent and serious threat to millions of people in Asia, the Middle East, and Europe, and as such it should be shut down. Additionally, this issue should not be shielded anymore for the sake of pure Machtpolitik.
Macht prefers secrecy and coercion and we already well know how it always ends up. After Chernobyl, Three Mile Island, and the Fukushima disaster, the last thing the world needs is another nuclear catastrophe. Additionally, there are clear ambitions present in the country to develop and acquire nuclear capabilities. There are various reasons why this is an extremely dangerous endeavor to pursue. Not just for the region itself and adjacent countries but also for the world, which should be evolving towards a nuclear-free future instead. Consequently, we have to do all we can to prevent yet another blow to an already shaking NPT (Non-Proliferation Treaty).
In conclusion, the Caucasus is full of frozen yet unsolved, highly polarizing, toxic and potentially flammable conflicts. We also have to be aware that the raging flames of instability from Syria and Iraq are not far away. We do not need another nuclear meltdown. It is high time to localize the overheated blaze of the Middle East. It would be a good start by stabilizing Caucasus in a just, fair and sustainable way.
