By Pramod Raj Sedhain.
After very low profile flag-lowering ceremony in Kabul, North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) officially ended its 13-year bloody combat mission without claiming victory on December 28, 2014. NATO-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) completed the handover security responsibility to Afghan troops. However, the closing ceremony hinted at the bitterness of war. War against Taliban is not over since militants launched terrorist attacks on the background of NATO withdraw to demonstrate the brutal future. War in Afghanistan is not complete and the formally ending of the foreign combat mission in Afghanistan is largely symbolic as well technical matter. After lengthy and intensive discussion, Kabul signed bilateral security agreements with Washington and NATO for military presence in September.
Around 13,000 foreign troops will remain in the country to train Afghan forces from January 1, 2015. The green-and-white flag of the ISAF was replaced by the new flag of the new international mission called ‘Resolute Support’. The hoisting of the Resolute Flag means that the mission has been changed but not complete to eradicating terrorism from the country. Foreign troops will be in stationed in five key military bases across Afghanistan and can carry out military mission, if necessary. NATO began operations against Taliban regime after the 9/11 attacks against the US and succeeded in its initial aim to ejecting from power. Despite different dimensions and factors, NATO-led ISAF mission remained unsuccessful to defeat Taliban. They, however, succeeded in neutralizing the al-Qaeda as well other foreign fighters. US carried out several covert drone strikes project in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Billions of dollars were spent in the war while 3,485 ISAF troops, among 2,200 American troops were killed. Taliban moral has been boosted and fears are that the insurgency might reach a new height after the end of NATO mission. Taliban deadliest attacks and violence increased in 2014 when Afghanistan’s security forces began to take responsibility of the country’s security. Around 5,000 Afghan security personnel died in 2014. Afghanistan’s transition has entered a new phase to real test that capabilities of some 350,000 Kabul forces. Afghanistan’s security future is surrounded by uncertainties at a time when Taliban still holds a defensive position. Kabul is safe and under the full control of government forces but deaths and injuries have sharply increased. Taliban inflicting within the security forces is also a dangerous challenge.
Questions arise whether the Afghan forces can handle the country’s security? Whether they can prevent Taliban offensive? Will they be able to tackle the Taliban fighters as well other international terrorist groups? Will they be able to form political unity during transition? Afghan politics is sharply divided. The country’s “national unity government” is the necessity to deal with any future threats. However, President Ashraf Ghani and rival Abdullah Abdullah have not been able to reach a final deal despite months of intensive negotiation. The country is sure to see a challenge of greater scale but the President, despite being in power for the last three months, has not appointed any new ministers. The Afghan government needs to focus to creating more jobs, opportunities and hope for better life of the people.
Afghan transition has already faced economic, social and geopolitical challenges. Afghanistan’s future depends on different unavoidable influential dimensions and factors. Different factors play vital roles in the Afghan’s democratic transition. The question is not about how much real support will it get from the western governments and how will Kabul handle the domestic politics. The real factor is the true support from Islamabad, Washington and Tehran. International and regional rivalries will sharply impact Afghan peace and its future. International support will not only defend Afghanistan but can also create tension if they cannot handle the situation properly. Foreign interference can create complications in the future.
Afghanistan needs to form reliable alliance with the immediate neighbors. US, EU as well as key countries like China, Pakistan, Iran, India, Russia, and Saudi Arabia are other players in shaping Afghanistan’s future. Pakistan has known links to Taliban and faces accusation of protecting Taliban’s leadership. U.S-Iranian relations also impacts Afghan politics and future course since Iran and Afghanistan share a common border, cultural and linguistic ties. Indian and Saudi factors also are the alarm bells for Afghan neighbors.
Withdrawal of foreign troops can be a positive message for Taliban, which American-led invasion of Afghanistan (Operation Enduring Freedom) launched on 7 October 2001, removed the brutal regime from power. Since December 2001, United Nations Security Council established the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) to provide security of the country and train Afghan National Security Forces. Bonn Conference selected Afghan Transitional Administration. ISAF-built military bases near the major cities across the country. Election was held in 2004 to start the democratic exercise. After the overthrow of the barbaric Taliban regime Afghanistan increased foreign support, booming economy, and even protected the fundamental rights, improved the education system, woman right and peoples life, among others.
Darkness of Afghanistan started after Taliban reorganized and regrouped mostly in rural areas and launched an insurgency against the foreign forces and the government. Taliban started low profile attacks after 2003 and increased violence. From 2006, ISAF started counter-insurgency operations by increasing the number of troops to counter the Taliban fighters. Different operations were not successful since the fighters sneaked into Pakistani north-west region. Taliban insurgency picked a new height and started series of suicide attacks, guerilla raids, ambushes, and started the costly and bloody battle. Casualties of Afghan civilians increased. ISAF deployed more than 130,000 personnel from 50 countries. US forces killed Osama bin Laden in Abbotabad, Pakistan on 2 May 2011, which as the topmost target and key success of the mission.
Afghanistan is undergoing a very sensitive time. Taliban has all time high hope to get their mission fulfilled. Afghanistan’s development and prosperity is possible only crushing the Taliban. Direct negotiations with the Taliban have failed. They can be defeated only force. Afghan should learn from previous mistakes. Some argue that establishment of Taliban’s political office in Doha was a breakthrough, which did not bring any positive outcome. Peace process is not an easy task with them. This will only create space for the terrorist groups to regroup. Taliban is not willing to go for successful negotiation. Indirect and informal contacts and negotiations have been carried out several times but they are not interested to hold direct talks with legitimate Afghan government because they hope to overthrow the government through terror.
Afghan military has started to handle the country’s security but threat is all time high. Uncertainty has surrounded the country but the question is whether the Afghan force is fully able to handle the country’s security. Afghan needs foreign military and security collaboration and cooperation to avoid Taliban’s return and to preserve democratic rule. Eliminating the Taliban is not only the Afghan issue but also regional interest and equally significant for progress. Ending the Taliban’s presence in Afghanistan is preventing terrorist attacks across the region. Taliban factors are the enemies of freedom, economic development, peace and prosperity in region.
Taliban has a terror mind and they are struggling to revive their barbaric rule. Avoiding Taliban role in Afghan politic is dangerous for regional security and stability. Taliban is the main factor to ensure the foreign terrorist groups on ground. This terror mind of Taliban will host the dangerous international terrorist groups, trafficking of drugs, spread the Islamic radicalism as well region and create the threat across the globe.
