Can IS be stopped?

The Islamic State or IS, and until recently known as the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) or the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), has stunned and alarmed both governments and people all over the world by its sudden and meteoric rise.

Leaders from around the globe have voiced their fear and concern about the serious danger IS poses to the international community in general and to Iraq and Syria, in particular. The US president, Barack Obama has remarked, and it has become even more apparent in recent months, that the Islamic States’ “extreme ideology poses a medium and long-term threat” to citizens of the United States.

After the fall of Mosul, Iraq’s second largest city, in June, the leader of the Islamic State, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, declared that he had established the Caliphate and re-branded the group as the “Islamic State.” The New York Times estimates that the group now controls 90,000 square kilometres of land in an area that stretches from Aleppo in Syria to Diyala in Iraq.

Most recently, it captured the al-Tabqa air base in the Raqqa province in Syria, bordering Turkey. IS today has artillery, tanks, fighter planes and other military equipment that it has acquired in various ways. Much of this has been taken over or seized from the Syrian and Iraqi armed forces.

In fact, the IS has been steadily growing for the past few years, right under the nose of the Iraqi government. Unfortunately, Iraq’s former prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki, was too busy developing his own myopic agenda for Iraq, and supporting his fellow Shiite constituency, at the expense of the interests of the Sunni population.

As a result large sections of the Sunni community have been forced to pledge their support to the Islamic State in the large swathes of land they have captured thus far. Additionally, the Syrian civil war has helped to make the IS stronger and larger than any other rebel group involved in the conflict.

The appeal of the IS has rapidly gone global. Young men from all over the world are flocking to join its ranks in Iraq and Syria. This has sent shock waves all over the world, particularly in the United States and Europe, since many of those joining the IS are citizens of the United States, the United Kingdom and several European countries.

An estimated 2,000 to 3,000 of its fighters are said to be of European origin. It is however unclear the actual number of fighters the IS has in Iraq and Syria. In Iraq alone, the IS is estimated to have more than 15,000 fighters together with militias allied to them. In Syria, they are thought to have at least 6,000 to 8,000 fighters.

Al-Baghdadi, who emerged as the leader of the IS in 2010, can today assume the credit for making the IS the world’s most dangerous terrorist organisation. Al-Baghdadi, in comparison to his old friend and mentor, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, who headed al-Qaeda in Iraq until he was killed by US forces in 2006, is considered a far more intelligent, and pragmatic individual.

Unlike Zarqawi, al-Baghdadi is also said to be highly educated and has a PhD in Islamic theology. A large part of his strength lies in the support he has secured from a group of old Baath Party officials who served under Saddam Hussein.

The IS is estimated to be the richest and most powerful terrorist group in the world today. Defeating them or degrading their strength will be a formidable task for any country. After the capture of Mosul, the IS looted the central bank of $429m (500bn Iraqi dinars) in cash. In addition, the group generates income from collecting taxes from the local areas under its control and reportedly sells 40,000 barrels of oil a day.

Furthermore, millions of dollars in donation have come from Saudi Arabia, Qatar and other Gulf States in the past few years. Due to their large resources in the areas under their control, the IS has continued to pay local workers and even offers social security benefits. The group’s earnings are estimated at $1-$4m a day. It is believed that IS today controls more than $2bn.

In the short-term, the following options may be required in order to contain the IS:

Military option

While the US air strikes have temporarily checked the advance of IS forces in Iraq, it is evident that air strikes alone can only serve as a short-term measure. While the IS fighters have acquired a number of sophisticated weaponry, including its recent capture of SA-16 MANPADS at the al-Tabqa air base in Raqqab, they are not as well-trained or fully equipped as the US, European or some other military forces in the region. However, recent events have shown that IS forces are highly motivated and will not be easy to defeat.

Support to Sunni tribes

Iraq’s new Shi’ite Prime Minister, Haidar al-Abadi would need to repair much of the damage done by his predecessor and bridge the ever-expanding gap between the Shiites and Sunnis in Iraq. What has been viewed as a positive development by many observers is the fact that several Sunni tribes have stated that they are willing to negotiate with Prime Minister al-Abadi. It is evident though that if the IS is to be weakened and eventually defeated, Shiites and Sunnis need to come to terms and agree to work together.

Bolstering allied forces

US President Obama correctly stated that the United States cannot “play whack-a-mole” and send its troops to all the countries where the IS emerges. The United States and its partners can instead help to bolster their allies in the region such as Turkey and Jordan, especially the Iraqi armed forces, to enable them to effectively confront the forces of the IS.

Diplomacy

The United States and its European allies, fully aware of the threat from the IS, need to turn to their partners in the Middle East to get their full support and help. This means persuading those countries that have been funding the IS to stop channelling funds to the group. Those states would also need to pledge their support of reaching out to their contacts and networks in Iraq and Syria to try and work together to stop the onslaught of the terror group. The sharing of any intelligence between these countries will also play a critical role in the fight against the IS.

The role of the international community

In the final analysis, the IS can only be contained and ultimately defeated if the United States and their allies have the absolute resolve and political will necessary to vanquish this extremely violent and dangerous group. While it is positive news that the United States has begun surveillance flights over Syria which may be a prelude to air strikes, it has tough decisions to make in the coming weeks and months including whether to work with the Assad regime; an idea not particularly favoured by Obama and members of his administration. Equally important will be the role played by Iran, Russia and China. The United States will need to reassess its policies towards all these countries in the larger interest of forging a global coalition.

The need for an effective counter radicalisation policy

However, a major factor that could help to erode the strength of the IS will be for the Sunni tribes in Iraq and Syria to withdraw their support for IS, which will then lose a major source of its lifeblood and potentially decline over time. Equally important for the international community will be to develop an effective counter radicalisation policy. Central to such a policy will be to ensure that Muslims whether in the United States, Europe, in OIC member states, or indeed all over the world, do not become extremists and militants, who then end up not simply rallying to the cause of the IS but actually join its ranks as fighters.