By Pramod Raj Sedhain.
The outcome of the recently held elections in the tropical island nation Sri Lanka came as a surprise to many. This not only proves to be victory over longtime leader Mahinda Rajapaksa but holds equal significance for regional geopolitical gaming. Opposition candidate Maithripala Sirisena won with 51.28 percent with Rajapakse garnering 47.58 percent. Ousted Rajapaksa’s peaceful transition of power has been an equally significant event for shifting the geo-political game in the region. Sri Lanka was reeling under great regional rivalry power politics for the sphere of influence.
Sri Lanka election’s outcome indicates fuelling of conspiracy theories as well. China lost its strategic asset Sri Lanka while United States and India have been successful. China’s setback in Sri Lanka will have a long term impact in terms of strategy, economy and diplomacy. Sri Lanka was a key ally to China’s ambitious Maritime Silk Road project. However, the political situation of Sri Lanka, after the election results, has completely changed. Now, China has lost its ally with US and India winning the game.
After Sri Lanka’s election result, I contacted a U.S. Professor of Strategic Studies for US top military officers, who is also a senior adviser of U.S. Government primarily on strategic and defense policy, Asia-Pacific issues, and global strategic affairs. He frankly told me that the “changing scenario of Sri Lankan geopolitics has been strategic after the end of the civil war. It is extensive success of American strategist experience”. The expert of regional dynamics professor interestingly described the real geo-political drama with India increasingly seeking the United States’ role to counter the threat of China in Sri-Lanka. He said, “China’s long-term plans for strategically important Sri Lanka has been checked but not defeated yet”. American strategist cited an example that almost all South Asian nations’ intellectuals, who are interested in defense matters, have closely watched the Sri Lankan geo-strategic importance.
That is – Chinese Admiral Zheng he visited Sri Lanka several times since 1405. It was nearly a century before Christopher Columbus discovered America. The Muslim religious mariner visit was made at a time when China was a great power nation to boost its military footsteps around the strategic roots. An extremely talented and intelligent Zheng was close confidant of the Yongle Emperor and establish a Chinese presence and extend the tributary system to the maritime nations in Southeast Asia. He died during the seventh voyage and was buried at sea off the Malabar coast near Calicut in Western India. That example is one of the strategic significance of Sri Lanka and emerging China’s Maritime Silk Road project.
Sri Lanka has seen a complex regional geo-strategic political drama. American strategists have been providing lot of formula informally to Indian side either through think tanks, top policy advisors or through security or intelligence or at the expert’s level. If Sri Lanka is controlled by rival power, India itself will contain and encircle and even control its sphere of influence. After internal political pressure, Rajapakse had wanted to re-legitimate through fresh elections for seeking a third term in office. He changed the constitution to scrap the two-term limit and increasingly heading to dictatorial tendencies.
His high hopes of winning with an overwhelming mandate because of the legacy of defeating the LTTE insurgents have been shattered. This election was not repetition of the of 2010 elections when he easily defeated Sri Lankan former army chief Sarath Fonseka. He has a total belief on his height of his power, stability and economic boom. However, the alliance formed against him proved to be unfortunate for Rajapakshe. In the presidential polls, Rajapaksa’s ally switched sides to become joint opposition candidate who was a low-profile cabinet member – Maithripala Sirisena, who won the bitterly fought election.
When Narendra Modi became the Prime Minister of India, Sri Lanka’s President Mahinda Rajapakse faced more pressure than before. In the first ever swearing-in of an Indian Prime Minister to have been attended by the heads of all SAARC countries, Sri Lanka’s President Rajapaksa was focused to break it’s alliance with China. Modi personally pressured Rajapaksa in a private meeting after his inauguration program in New Delhi. Modi suggested political settlement in Sri Lanka and proposed more economic and security cooperation with India. Modi began to address all issues diplomatically with Sri Lanka’s strategic location in the passageway through the Indian Ocean and check the increasing interest of China.
Rajapaksa responded no more than two months after talks with Modi. Unannounced nuclear-powered Chinese submarines to dock in Colombo (Chinese Navy submarine Great Wall No. 329) entered Sri Lankan water the name of an “operational good-will visit.” which has the capacity to carry torpedoes, a cruise missile and a 360-pound warhead. When he twice invited Chinese Navy activities in southern tip, India felt diplomatic declaration against Delhi. Decision was disastrous for Sri Lanka’s President.
India and America assessed that Rajapaksa was heading towards more pro-active Chinese line against the Western powers. India and westerners’ attention was more crucial and wanted to overthrow him at any cost. Washington’s and New Delhi’s intelligence radar was alarmed and felt China’s military influence in Indian Ocean will prove to be a future threat of interests for both nations. Closer eyes against Rajapaksa’s regime in Sri-Lanka raised eyebrows in Washington because of Chinese influence in the regional threat and protecting the strategic routes. New Delhi and Washington have been deeply concerned with Colombo since the end of two and half decade long civil war.
Sri Lanka’s alliance with China was a serious irritation for New Delhi’s strategy. They felt that Lankan territory might be used for Chinese military activities. India took all steps to remove Rajapaksa for crossing the red line. India wanted full sphere of influence in the small South Asian neighboring countries strictly prohibiting Chinese role in the strategic points. They have already experienced overthrow of regimes in the South Asian small nations. Sri Lanka going to China’s pocket will not be accepted for New Delhi and western countries. China had no plans to protect his ally Rajapaksa. He himself had full hopes of being re-elected. However, the game took a u-turn with the plan of removing an anti-government and seeking to remove a democratically elected President by same method by creating a broad range of parties like ethnic and religious minorities getting united to support Maithripala Sirisena to block the winning for Rajapaksa.
Delhi’s traditional influence in Sri Lanka has been decreasing while US geopolitical radars have been active. The U.S. pivot towards Asia-Pacific has been important for Sri Lankan strategic location. U.S. strategist is equally concerned over an island and suggested that New Delhi very warningly “whoever controls the Indian Ocean they dominates the Asia and whoever controls the Island they can win the geopolitical game”. Both countries feel that China’s naval planning in Colombo was a direct threat for Delhi and ultimately a strategic challenge for US pivot to Asia.
” U.S. has the largest navy base in Indian Ocean atoll of Diego Garcia, which is the most productive launch-pad for air strikes on Iraq and Afghanistan. The British owned Sri Lankan south location station – the Diego Garcia force is well equipped and always at standby for military operation anywhere in the world. The U.S. has hugely invested in upgrading the infrastructure to make their base equipped with nuclear-powered guided-missile submarine, which can carry up to 154 cruise missiles. China developed its “string of pearls” strategy in the Indian Ocean, which was a direct threat to the US interest in the region. America became equally interested in checking Sri Lanka’s strategic partnership with Beijing, which will prove to be a direct threat to American Asia Pacific strategy and deterrence US military capacity.
After getting United States’ green signal, India struggles to maintain its strategically crucial Indian Ocean nation but has not been successful to check the heavy Chinese investment and engagements with Colombo. Without controlling the overall economically and connecting neighboring nations, India cannot sustain power. Without promoting friendly political environment in the neighboring countries, Indian rising strategy is sure to fail. Bilateral trade between China and Sri Lanka has doubled over the last five years and China has emerged as Sri Lanka’s largest trading partner.
This is not good news for New Delhi. Chinese has provided billions of dollars in loans for construction of new ports and roads and other constructions especially investment in the Hambantota port. This has been a headache for India. Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Sri Lanka In 2014 September, the first Chinese head of state of Colombo in three decades. Indian Prime Minister Modi placing a congratulatory call to Mr. Sirisena before the votes were all counted shows their winning sign. Constitutional changes, settlement of the ethnic grievances, political space for minority, control the ethnic tensions and restoring law and order as well political settlement of Sri Lanka’s in long term will not be an easy task for game changer.
Indian policymakers will now focus on political stability in Sri Lanka and want to increase its footprint in Myanmar after the post-election phase. About my query regarding the Indian role and engagement along with US in Myanmar, the Professor told me that “India shows significant power projection in the region and possibilities of New Delhi big role in US foreign policy menu. But Myanmar’s political landscape is still difficult and needs to grow allies which will strategically benefit the U.S. interest in the region.” Professor predicts “pivot” in the Asia-Pacific can change South Asia to Southeast Asia in different transformative development in political, economic, and socio-cultural in the region. Myanmar elections will create a golden opportunity for both US and its ally but it doesn’t mean that U.S. vision in the whole region does not only depend on the single ally’s eye.
