By Pramod Raj Sedhain.
After the dramatic change in Yemeni political scene, Iran took a major strategic gain in the regional competition. Iran has been strategically getting more influential and making more alliances after Iraq, Syria to Lebanon, and currently in Yemen. Iran has strategically gained significantly thus widening its ally in frontline of regional rival power. Yemen’s Shia Houthi fighters win is ideologically and strategically supported by Iran. Iran might have a long-term project with a clear plan similar to Hezbollah foundation in Lebanon.
Houthis campaign’s rise is similar to Iranian revolution tactic like civil disobedience, series of protests and marches against the government and kick start insurgency thus fuelling in militant movement to take control of the state. Political vacuum and Iran’s strategic support can be easy for Houthis to gain the recent military success. The Houthi movement was founded in 1992 in a very low profile but after Arab Spring, they gained significantly in terms of political power. Since the start of the political crisis in Yemen in 2011, Saudi Arabia lost it’s neighbor’s influence while Iran emerged as a strong and influential player on Yemeni scene. Spreading the Islamic revolution and bolstering its influence in the region is Iran’s prime goal.
Yemen is not only important for Saudi Arabia but its geo-strategic location too is equally important for US, EU and Israel. US have critical terrorism concern in Yemen and its most important frontier of Global War on Terror. Yemen is the international hot spot and safe haven for different extremist Jihadist groups among Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula. US have assist the government army to fight against al-Qaeda. US heavily depend on its ally lavish Saudi but they have serious lapse for long-term plan and clear strategy towards Yemen. But Iran has it. After the escalation of turmoil in country, Yemen’s army capabilities were seriously damaged and deeply frustrating.
Political power transfer and instability is the ground of Houthis movement. Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guard’s Special branch al-Quds Force might take the opportunity to emerge Houthi and support the visions and strategies to secure its regional rival border. Al-Quds Force has been operating many proxy fighter networks in the region and they have a good idea about controlling the Shiite militant groups. Iran has secret presence on the enemy gates to save their strategic interest and to show their significance ability to create strong militia and proxy allies in the rival’s doorsteps. Riyadh’s efforts to control heavily armed Shiite militant group Houthis suffered a humiliating failure. With Iran’s proxy Houthi fighters taking over Sanaa on September 21, Yemen totally entered a new political as well military power order.
Iran gains vital sea checkpoints
Houthis success is an important control of strategic sea chokepoints for important Iran’s sea expansion which might penetrate enemy special maritime routes. Iran’s proxy full-scale strategic stronghold on Yeman’s Bab al Mandab is not the only threat alarm or not only an outlet of the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean but also serves their interest in vital sea routes of Israel as well between Europe, US and the Far East. Iran takes advantage of the world’s most significant oil-supply choke points.
Bab al Mandab strait choke point is the most important strategic waterways and upper hand of sea strategy. Iran is simultaneously encircling it’s prime regional rival Saudi Arabia and enemy Israel as well as create strategic pressure on Europe and the US to the most significant strategic ground. Iran’s north coast is one of the world’s most strategically important choke points – Strait of Hormuz . Iran has been threatening to close the only sea passage Hormuz from the Persian Gulf. Iranian new gain has been a strategic tension for EU, US, Israel and Saudi. Yemen’s Bab Al-Mandab and Iran’s Strait of Hormuz both are deeply integrated commercial international sea routes and both choke points have no alternative direction or sea routes.
Iran’s support to Houthis has been advantageous to the Yemen political and military power but the question remains as how long it will take control? Significant attention is what Tehran and Riyadh will do next in Yemeni competition? Or how much ability is required to manipulate the events to their own interest? Yemen’s big aid donor Saudi Arabia suffered a loss. Yemen is still on chaos since the 2011 Arab Uprising. The current crisis is not possible to achieve Saudi interest. Rivalry might start another separatist movement in southern Yemen because of geopolitically strategic location to parts of Bab al Mandab strait choke points. Iran will not only gain political power but equally important is to gain in terms of military, economy and geographically or geo-strategically.
Yemen’s geo-strategic important sea strategic waterways link between the Indian Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea, through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. That is Iran’s enemy Israel’s sea route to exit from the Rea Sea to the Indian Ocean. This shipping lane depends for the Israeli economy. Israel faced the Palestinian militant attack in early 1970’s in the ships that passed through Bab al-Mandab. Now Israeli strategists are worried about Iranians proxy control and they might attack Israeli ships if war breaks out with Iran. Israel has already encircled Iranian ally from Syria, Lebanon’s most powerful militant force – Hezbollah, Gaza ruling militant – Hamas. Iran has significant chunks of territory and strategic sea routes to possible penetration in case war breaks out.
Iran is located at the world’s most important Persian Gulf chock point Strait of Hormuz, which is the world’s largest crude oil shipments route. Strait of Hormuz bypass is not viable and easy option. But Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates have limited operational capacity through pipeline project. If Gulf States increase their pipeline projects to different pipelines to ship crude oil outside the Gulf, they will try another route to avoid potential upcoming crisis and possible blockade.
Such strategic chokepoint shipment’s substantial disruptions can lead to increase in total energy costs even temporarily. Such effect not only surrounds its area but far from the thousands of miles in sea route as well direct impact with financial capital. Iran’s proxy strategic gain in Yemen is a pressure for US, EU, Israel and Saudi Arabia. Different strategic calculations have been made in the regional and western capitals but political transition is heading to more complications and chance of peace and stability of Yeman is the fault-line. Despite the alarming scenario and chance of strategic loss, direct foreign military operation is very difficult and lengthy and it might face dangerous consequences in the future.
