Pramod Raj Sedhain.
The most brutal terrorist organization Islamic State (IS) with full effort targeted to control the Syrian northern Kurdish town of Kobani. The strategic Turkey border town has been the target of IS militants after it captured dozens of Kurdish villages near Kobani. This city has been under attack since mid-September and intensive street battle started since last week. Kurdish fighters are battling to defend their homeland and the U.S-led coalition has continued air strikes against IS targets to halt an advance. IS terrorist overran Kurdish headquarters and are still encircling the city but Kobanis and Syrian Kurdish fighters have called on all across the region to take up arms against the IS to defend the strategic town. Since the Syrian civil war began in 2011, Kurds have established self-rule in three major northern areas of Syria. Kobani fall might create humanitarian catastrophe. UN warned that 12,000 or so civilians are still in or near Kobani, including 700 mainly elderly people in the town center “will most likely be massacred” by IS if the town falls. If it is seized by IS and they take full control of the town it will create dangerous consequences in the region. It will spread another form of multi ethnic and religious conflict in the Middle East. The region could face new dangerous cycle of religious and ethnic violence.
Kobani is not only the single battle-front against the terrorists but also the symbol of overall battle. It is also a means to test the credibility of the deployed US-led air power. If this city loses, it will have serious impact on regional stability because of its strategic location to access route into Turkey. If the terrorist group IS succeeds in controlling the strategic gateway, it will have dangerous psychological defects of the international community. Of course, Syria bombing is tougher than Iraq as well as difficult owing to geographical and political position. The US-led coalition has sophisticated and modest air operation capabilities and failure to strike the IS targets and defects will be costly. Time has come for the US to show and prove their military might against IS and Save the Kobani Kurdish.
US top brass military officials are serious to accomplish their mission and focus their strategic view like they initially did in Baghdad. Fall of Kobani will have horrific news for western strategists. The Islamic State will not only gain more ground and capacity but will also have sufficient time to strengthen their capacity, supply route, logistic, among others. They will be able to control nearly 400 kilometer border of Turkey, which is nearly half of Syria’s 820-km border with Turkey. Risky ground intervention could be the next possibility to plan ‘B’ because the Syrian opposition force has not been able to maintain ground force. Proper ground operation is not an easy choice for the coalition and any training to Syrians can have grave setbacks and backfire. Large scale training is still risky to their nature of Syrian opposition fighters and largely dominant to radical militant.
Despite the US continuous appeal and pressure, Turkey has refused to intervene to help the Kobani defend from terrorist group from the Syrian border. The 15-million-strong Kurdish minority country Turkey’s mysterious silence can be harmful to its own security and defense. Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) has a very close relationship with Turkey’s Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). They have already warned the government not to support in Kobani. PKK waged a militant campaign for Kurdish rights and now any negotiations with government will be harmful if Kobani falls from the Kurds. If IS militants carry out massacre in Kobani, it could have a direct effect to the Turkish peace process and Kurds might start attacking against Turkish force. According to Reuter News Agency report Turkish already air strike against Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) targets in southeast Turkey .IS control of Turkey border area can be an alarm to its country defense.
Only military pressure can deal with IS
US-led initially air strikes have been successful to effectively target against IS terrorists and destroy the command and control facilities, weapons, vehicles and ammunition depots, training compounds, and have extensively damaged their capability in Iraq and Syria. Ongoing aerial bombardment and missile attacks have continuously targeted the IS and bombing the extremists jihadists since August. Effective military approach and plan can defeat the IS in the long run.
On June 29, 2014, IS self-declared a caliphate in the regions controlled n Iraq and Syria (Mosul to Aleppo) and started to invade the Iraqi capital as well Syrian strategic important towns. After capturing large swaths of Iraqi and Syrian territories, the group’s ambition did not stop. Their motive was for a greater caliphate or to govern the world’s Muslims. More than 80 countries’ fighter have been listed as foreign fighters of IS and have strengthened and influenced the global terrorists groups. The splinter group of al-Qaeda in Iraq formerly created the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant or the Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham, was established in Syrian civil war. After disputes with al-Qaeda in the Syrian civil war, the group created its own brand, authority and militants to fight against Syrian government as well the opponent forces. Ruthless battle tactics, committed and effective fighters, support of local radical tribal groups, alliances with Sunni jihadist group, widespread massacre and assassination, terrorist style and propaganda, modern arms and extensive financial resource, fragile Syrian opponent rebel force, instability and political vacuums, among other factors proved to an easy ground in the Syrian conflict .
After Iraqi army lost Mosul and Tikrit in June, ISIS seized sophisticated weapons, tanks and artillery as well as further strengthened their position to capture the Syrian army base. IS has different variety of arms with committed fighters using these weapons and tactics with small tactical formation to protect air attack. Intelligence services have been closely tracking the core leadership, main jihadist training/recruiting and identifying the overall structural function of the IS but their primary focus is to break the attraction of foreign fighters. Initially, the US-led coalition air strikes blocked the IS advance but now they are using different battle tactics with renewed advances in several fronts in Iraq and Syria. IS renewed advances into western Baghdad and Syria is a very serious blow to the coalition and has questioned over the effectiveness of aerial attacks. Successful advance of Islamic State is a great challenge but they have thousands of radical fighters, large territory and well resource that cannot defect overnight. Hunting down of terrorists itself is a difficult task in a vast territory and will take time for final victory. IS terrorist group has big ambitions, which needs full-fledged military response to crush them.
