By Pramod Raj Sedhain.
Relations between the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and Russia have worsened following the downfall of Soviet Union in 1991. Moreover, the Ukrainian crisis that emerged dramatically generated diverse views and mistrust between NATO and Russia. After the annexation of Crimea in Russia following controversial referendum as well as continued Ukraine crisis, NATO halted all practical and military cooperation with Russia. With the development, The U.S. is currently bolstering defense assistance in Eastern Europe through NATO. At a news conference in Warsaw with the F-16 fighters in the background, U.S. President Barack Obama announced a plan to invest $1 billion in stepping up its military presence in Eastern Europe amid the crisis with Russia.
NATO has already intensifying operational and combat readiness on Russia’s borders and added air and naval patrols and reinforced land troops in Poland, Romania and its Baltic member states. On the other hand, Russia has accused NATO of violating the 1997 treaty of cooperation. The scenario of Europe is very much similar to Cold War standoff and competition of military buildup in the region. Both sides feel that the agreements and promises made earlier have been broken with both the sides moving ahead to a new win-win option. Despite all efforts, both side s have been threatening each other for the stand-off. They are well aware that any single miscalculation might be disastrous since both sides have their own strategic interests. Russia’s annexation of Crimea and Ukraine crisis has led to a deep rooted confrontation between NATO and Russia. However, both the sides are not in favor of direct military confrontation.
NATO interest in Eastern Europe
With the commitment of fundamental collective defense purpose and goal, 12 western allies signed the North Atlantic Treaty on 4 April 1949 – the world had ever seen the largest and most powerful military and diplomatic transatlantic organization. Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, the United Kingdom and the United States joined the members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). During the German reunification based on gentlemen’s negotiation and commitment, NATO agreed not to expand the Russian border. This commitment was not formally documented and signed but in 1997, NATO-Russia Founding Act agreement, where US assured Russia strategic interest and said that the NATO would not permanently deploy troops or arms, including nuclear weapons in former communist states ruled by Moscow in Eastern Europe.
However, NATO expanded rapidly from 16 member states in 1990 to 28 as of now. NATO move eastward, especially in the former Communist block countries – the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland joined the alliance in 1999. In 2004, NATO enlarged its members with the joining of seven new Eastern European countries. Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia joined the organization. In 2009, NATO included new members Albania and Croatia.
43 years after Charles de Gaulle pulled France out of the NATO in 1966 it rejoined the organization in 2009. One of the NATO founder members, France accused the NATO of undermining France’s sovereignty. France wanted to develop Europe Defense Force, which might affect NATO’s long-term benefit from Europe. If EU defense force becomes influential and plays a larger role in Europe, the NATO will have moral difficulties since EU power and founder Germany has been fully integrated into NATO, which however is opposed to warfare. The architect of EU and European Defense force, French military is Europe’s largest, most advanced, combat readiness and having unilateral military operation capability. NATO strongly footholds the Baltic States and Eastern European countries while Russia feels direct threat and betray.
The Brussels-based ally members combined military spending is over 70% of the global total. NATO has also partnership for peace program where 22 countries with bilateral cooperation, including Ukraine and other countries having borders with Russia. NATO has assured Russia that its aim is at creating trust between NATO and other states in Europe but Russia does not trust its offensive intention.
During the cold war period, (on 14 May 1955) USSR formed NATO counter Military Alliance – the Warsaw Pact. The collective defense alliance had eight communist states of Central and Eastern Europe. After nation-wide revolt in Hungary, with the Imre Nagy’s government withdrawal from the Warsaw Pact in 1956, Soviet troops entered the country and removed the government and crushed the agitators. The Warsaw Pact invaded the Prague Spring on the night of 20 August 1968 in Czechoslovakia. The military invasion successfully retained the Communist government state power and stopped the reforms. However, with Warsaw’s existence for 36 years during the Cold War, it and NATO never directly waged war against each other.
After USSR’s downfall, US intelligence analyzed the Russian re-emergence. The US defense planners set the new potential strategic goal and NATO expanded its might with significant Russian boarder line and encircled it both geographically and militarily. NATO began to expand it’s presence to borders of the east European countries. Former US defense secretary and former CIA Director Robert Gates’ memoir book (Duty: Memoirs of a Secretary at War ) disclosed US strategic interest with Russia,: “When the Soviet Union was collapsing in late 1991, (Defense Secretary Dick Cheney) wanted to see the dismemberment not only of the Soviet Union and the Russian empire but of Russia itself, so it could never again be a threat to the rest of the world.”
With the reunification of Germany on 3 October 1990, the former East Germany became part of the Federal Republic of Germany. This had been agreed in the Two Plus Four Treaty earlier in the year with assured the Russian Security and defense. Currently, not only the Eastern European Boarder country Macedonia, Montenegro, Georgia, among others wait for the NATO membership, but Sweden and Finland are also trying to join NATO. But Russia has warned NATO’s surprising expansion in its borders. Despite differences, Russia and NATO are cooperating on a wide range of areas of common interest. But with the start of the Ukraine crisis, NATO and Russia have missed lot of diplomatic options to resolving the crisis. Their differences have vastly deep-rooted and solution is not an easy task. Western countries see new opportunities in the Ukrainian crisis and Russia sets its strategic goal to annexation with Crimea.
Ukraine: Pain more than gain
Russia front-line states are gradually controlled by NATO and its confrontation seems to be direct due to strategic geo-political location involving the Ukraine crisis. Both sides want upper hand in Ukraine crisis. Western powers have an upper hand in Kiev. After months of protests and with the ouster of pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych, Russia has rejected the legitimacy of the interim Ukrainian government. But the security architecture of Europe – NATO, wants political and militarily control in the Russian front line ground. Ukraine crisis is not only a confrontation of rivals, supporters, and protector but has seen sharp divisions within the country. After strategic loss in the ground, Russia calculated the status of historic navy base of Crimean Peninsula – Black Sea Fleet. On 23 February, following the 2014 Ukrainian revolution, the Ukrainian parliament adopted a bill to repeal the law and Russian language. Russian-speaking regions were aggressively infuriated with the new parliament and government. In this difficult scenario in Ukrainian politics, Russia caught the sentiment thus fuelling crisis in Ukraine. In Crimea, there was a dramatic increase of militiamen dressed in camouflage and securing and patrolling vital places such as entry road to airport.
On 27 February, gunmen seized the building of the regional parliament and the building of the Council of Ministers in Simferopol. Eventually, the Crimean peninsula was controlled by pro-Russian and Russian special forces with Russian flags raised all over these important structures. On 16 March, a referendum was held that paved the way for Crimea to join Russia. On March 18, 2014 Russian President Vladimir Putin annexed the Republic of Crimea and Sevastopol as federal subjects. It was ratified by the Federal Assembly on March 21. Russian nationalist doctrine quickly annexed Crimea. Russian move in Crimea was not a contemporary style though it was visible to the Western intelligence radar easily.
Following the annexation of Crimea, the EU and US imposed sanctions and threatened stern sanctions against Russia. Ukrainian separatist turmoil spread to the eastern part of the country and pro-separatist militias have controlled much of two big regions in the east. The rebels have already voted for a self-rule in east Ukraine and declared “Donetsk People’s Republic”, which NATO ally declared the referendum illegal. Heavy fighting in separatist’s stronghold continues. Ukrainian government and NATO ally countries have blamed Russia for instigating the unrest by sending in Russian military-intelligence officers. But Moscow has denied any role in the armed uprising and accused the Western countries of being responsible for bloodsheds. This has been a sort of proxy war between NATO and Russian interest. What may be the situation, but after all it is the Ukrainian people who have suffered the most.
