By Pramod Raj Sedhain.
NATO pull-out from Afghanistan in 2014 indicates grave crisis in the war-torn country. Time seems to be uncertain and critical for Afghanistan after the NATO pull-out. Currently, the United States, which is leading the NATO and collation forces, remains engaged for the 2014 transition strategy. The possibility of post-2014 force of roughly 10,000 to 13,000 troops remaining in the country seems high. However, transitional success is still questionable while stability and security remain to be a challenge ahead. The drawn-out presence of the US Army in Afghanistan (for 12 years) is probably longest war in US history.
The capability, confidence, strategy and sustainability of approximately 350,000 Afghan soldiers remain uncertain. Afghan force took the lead in June 2013 taking control the country’s security from the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF).
Despite combating the Taliban a number of times, Afghan forces have not made any significant progress to gain victory against the insurgents. It has suffered significant losses with the insurgents. The ability of Afghan force has been built-up in recent years but they are still struggling for better performance. The rate of injury and death is increasing every month. Casualties among the Afghan army and police rose to 2,767 in 2013 up from 1,870 in 2012. The figure indicates possible rise of Taliban and other insurgents’ aggression and attacks.
Afghan civilians are sure to face the country’s worst violence and threat after coalition’s pullout. There are total 84,271 troops from 49 contributing nations, with a majority of 60,000 from the U.S. The war’s total cost to $700 billion (appr.) claiming lives of some 2,300 U.S troops, some 1,100 coalition forces’ and thousands of Afghan civilians. In 2013, the ISAF forces suffered lower casualties in Afghanistan in the last six years. Afghanistan war has been unpopular among the American people. A recent CNN/ORC international poll showed that only 17 percent of Americans supported the 12-year-long war. In 2008, 46 percent Americans disapproved the Afghan war but now a significant 82 percent U.S. citizens has opposed the ongoing conflict. This data indicates domestic pressure for the withdrawal of U.S. forces at the earliest.
Whatever the consequences be, the U.S. goal has not been fulfilled yet. Al Qaeda and other terrorist groups still remain hiding in Afghanistan and northwest Pakistan. Afghanistan might turn into a safe heaven for the terrorist groups following the pullout of the coalition troops. This might even encourage them (terrorists) to expand its ability and capability to conduct terrorist attacks inside and outside. Several of such groups are already active in Pakistan, Somalia, Yemen, Iraq, Syria and several other countries. Peace negotiations began in 2012 and Taliban opened a liaison office in Dubai for talks but failed to materialize.
After the departure of foreign forces, Afghanistan might see a re-emergence of Taliban insurgents with a high moral. The country might undergo numerous challenges, including implementation of law, economic conditions and political instability. Afghanistan is holding Presidential election in April 2014. The political situation is unprecedented. With the NATO combat mission changing its role to countering terrorism training and providing advices, Afghan security forces might not be able to handle the fragile situation since vital strategic challenges remain in Afghanistan.
Afghan: Don’t want historic repetition
Soviet Union forces invaded Afghanistan to protect the Communist ally President Nur Mohammad Taraki, who grabbed the power through “April Revolution” in 1978. In fact, this was a military coup backed by the then Soviet Union. Taraki was the founder leader of the People’s Democratic Party of Afghanistan. In December 1979, Soviet Union intervened in support of the Afghan communist government and directly fought Muslim guerrillas until February 1989.
Afghanistan become a major player in the cold war between the then USSR & U.S. Anti-communist guerilla forces – Mujahideen received support from the US, Saudi Arabia and received training from the Pakistani intelligence agency Inter Service Intelligence (ISI). With bitter experience, Kremlin’s goals collapsed and eventually withdrew its troops resulting to heavily economic and human loss.
Communist regime in Afghanistan survived more than three years without Soviet military. After the fall of Kabul and collapse of Soviet-backed Mohamad Najibullah in 1992, Afghan political parties agreed on a peace and power-sharing agreement “Peshawar Accord” and commitment to form an interim transitional government.
Several regional powers tried to influence their geo-political strategic neighboring country and supported several rival militia. Militia party broke the agreement that led to conflicts and fights among themselves to prove their dominance. Afghanistan entered a new bloody civil war leading to lawlessness.
On the backdrop of uncertainty and anarchism, Pakistan’s ISI trained low-level Mujahideen member Mullah Omar during the 1980s which saw the emergence of a new power base. He started his movement with fewer than 50 armed loyalist students in his hometown of Kandahar.
The Taliban saga began with a populist stunt in 1994 by successfully freeing two school girls from the captivity of a local governor and hanging him in public. Some 30 Taliban fighters initiated the struggle.
Mainly ethnic Pashtuns Taliban insurgents emerged in Afghanistan as a new power in 1994. A four-year long bloody civil war and lawless Taliban regime start from September 1996 to December 2001 with hardliner ruthless rule. Fundamentalist Taliban regime has been recognized for its brutality and power abuse.
After 9/11 terrorist attack, the U.S. gave an ultimatum to the Taliban regime to hand-over Osama Bin Laden, which Taliban government flatly refused. The US-led multi-national coalition force invaded Afghanistan on October 7, 2001. The Taliban regime had totally collapsed in the first week of December paving way towards formation of a new government. Taliban, however, steadily extended their influence and remerged by 2006 and infiltrated parts of the southern Afghanistan. The country now faces a new level of insecurity and violence. Since 2008, insurgents have started spreading out north towards Kabul and eventually south-western Afghanistan.
