By Pramod Raj Sedhain.
After three years of intensive negotiations with Taliban, the only one American captivity, US Army Sergeant Bowe Bergdahl was released from the Taliban prison. After five years of captivity, Bowe was released following negotiation of swap between him and former high-ranking Taliban figures languished in Guantanamo Bay detention camp . The US endured the most costly deal to secure the service man’s life. As a negotiated settlement with Taliban, the US released the most prominent and dangerous former Taliban officials. The released five Guantanamo Bay prisoners are – the Taliban deputy minister of intelligence, Abdul Haq Wasiq, the senior Taliban commander in the northern city of Mazar-e-Sharif – Mullah Norullah Nori. One of the few men, who had direct ties with Mullah Omar and Osama bin Laden and a key Taliban leader was Khairullah Khairkhwa, who was also the former Interior Minister in the Taliban regime.
Another key person was the chief of security for the Taliban in Qalat and radio operator for the Taliban’s communications – Mohammed Nabi. Likewise, suspected war criminal Mohammad Fazl was also released. Human Rights Watch accused him for war crimes and mass killings of Shiite Muslims in Afghanistan in 2000 and 2001 during the Taliban regime. However, the release of these most dangerous militants has been troubling a significant number of people across the US. The US intelligence and military hugely invested their blood and treasure to capture these central and influential figures of Taliban.
Geopolitical strategy in Afghan war
Afghanistan – the strategic geography of Central Asia and important footholds in the region has faced a century of battle and decades of bloody war. If we go through the Afghan history, we find interesting and unbelievable facts to justify it’s importance – rise and fall of different rulers and dynasties, buffer state between British India and the Russian Empire, focal point of the ancient Silk Road to human migration, modernization to ultra-extremism, invasion to civil war, Cold war to present unsuccessful and endless wars. The important geo- cultural hub, Afghan connects the Middle East culture with Central Asia and the Indian subcontinent but the war-torn country identifies itself as the most country of dangerous assassinations and suicide attacks and even land and centre of global war on terrorism.
In 1979, with the invasion of Soviet Union in Afghanistan in support of the pro-Communist government of Babrak Kamal, Afghanistan experienced a real cold war. After the Soviet invasion, the CIA was determined that Afghanistan could be a prime strategic priority to operate covert operation through ISI and other Islamic fundamentalist country secret service and fund. CIA was temporarily successful to serve the US strategic interests not only in the Communist USSR but also in the Balkans and the Middle East countries having anti-American ideology. Under the Geneva Accord on 15 April 1988, the withdrawal of Soviet forces from Afghanistan began on 15 May 1988 and executed on 15 February 1989.
Withdrawal of Soviet forces did not complete the Afghan war but the situation remained uncontrolled thus plunging the country into civil war. Some figures showed that more than forty Islamic countries joined Afghanistan in its fight between 1982 and 1992. Scuffles and struggles among numerous militia factions operating in Afghanistan triggered a civil war. Former anti-USSR low rank militant Mullah Omar conceptualized the Taliban party in 1994 that later grew and spread throughout Afghanistan. After bloody fight with different militant groups, the Pakistani military supported and Saudi Arabia funded the Taliban. This resulted in Taliban seizing the power and ruling the government from September 1996 until December 2001. With the Taliban seizing the power in Afghanistan, the country became a new hub of terrorism and ground of Islamic extremist development, training, funding, weapons, growing extremist fundamentalism throughout the world.
The safe heaven for Jihadi, Afghanistan changed the global war on terrorism after 9/11 attacks. US responded quickly with the US and its allies carrying out massive air raid against militia target. The Northern Alliance gaining the ground swiftly took control of Kabul and other al-Qaeda and Taliban hotspots. After the US invaded Afghanistan, Pakistan had a doubtful role tat risked extremist control. US Navy Seal killed Osama Bin Laden – the number one enemy of the US and the world’s most wanted man in 2011 by the helicopter raid by U.S. Naval Special Warfare Development Group (known as SEAL Team Six) on Abbottabad, suburb of Pakistan capital Islamabad. “Operation Neptune Spear” (mission code name) was accomplished properly. However, America’s war on terrorism has not been complete. Allied forces are yet to achieve their final goal in Afghanistan.
Afghanistan holds geopolitical importance to US and it is difficult to completely withdraw from there. According to several figures, the cost of Afghan war has already crossed half trillion dollars. Despite the cost, the Obama Administration has already revealed its principle strategic priority to Asia to boost its force in the region. The US desire is not a back yard in central region but to maintain the force to support the extending their influence in region. Afghani ground is a key part to influence the Middle East as well as South Asia.
Afghanistan also has strategic borders, such as – emerging world economic power and US competitor China in the far northeast, volatile nuclear powers and unreliable partner Pakistan border with south and the east, major US enemy Iran’s border in the west, energy-endowed former Soviet states Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan in the North. The US still remains to play a dominant, influential and powerful role in Afghan political, military to judiciary. According to media reports, US will pull out most of the 32,800 troops from Afghanistan by the end of the 2014 and withdraw all U.S. forces from Afghanistan by the end of 2016. Combat troops have been completely withdrawn and NATO Mission remains to train, advice and assist role to the Afghan Security. But operation readiness has to remain, if necessary. CIA contingents, drone operators, and of- course, other various intelligence personnel remain in Afghanistan to serve the interests of the United States. Drones are expected to play a major role in battle and surveillance in post 2014. Drone attacks in Afghanistan and Pakistan continue to increase.
Post 2014 US presence in Afghanistan could block the Taliban recapturing the Afghan power but the number of US remaining troops will not be sufficient to control Taliban insurgency that has spread across the complex geography. Afghanistan’s strong security is the prime requirement to defend the regional and world peace as well major strategic objectives of international super power. If the instability grows uncontrolled and leads to a new kind of terrorism threat, western countries might face another attack. Afghan needs to strengthen its forces to combat international terrorism. Control of Afghan terrorism is the real challenge.
Peace: Still Confusing
The age-long historic civilization, diverse geography and rich culture Afghanistan (many analysts compare it with Egypt) faces a bloody war. It will still take some more time for a peaceful future. Post 2014 could boost the anti-government militant groups. But resumption of peace talk’s faith is still no signal of goodwill that will lead start path to peace path. Taliban has publicly refused to engage with the Afghan government, accusing the Afghan government of being an American puppet. Taliban extremist elements and regional country role is still difficult to the engaged in dialogue of conflict. Taliban supreme leader Mullah Mohammad Omar claimed that the swap was a “big victory”. This exchange has boosted the Taliban moral because all the five prisoners were influential former officials of the Taliban regime. It is a remarkable political victory for Taliban after the US-led invasion of Afghanistan after the 9/11 attacks and fall the regime. Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid indicated the “difficulty” to future peace talks saying that “it has only been an exchange of war prisoners, there is nothing political in it, it has not been done for peace process”. The Afghan government accused the prisoner swap as a violation of international law by transferring detainees to a third country. No one is still optimistic about Afghan peace future. Neither the government nor the Taliban side has genuinely committed towards peace talks. The US said that the ‘militants’ release is a possible first step toward an Afghan peace accord”, but it is not easy.
