By Ron Aledo.
All countries have Contingency Plans for almost any possible situation (the US Army trains for a Zombie like Apocalyptic situation in Indiana for example). Of course Russia since long time had a Contingency Plan for Crimea just in case the West took over the Central Government in Kiev. But the facts demonstrate that it was just that: a contingency plan, a Plan B. Russia’s PLAN A was to solve the Ukrainian crisis without violence and without taking Crimea but only by diplomacy. The Coup forced PLAN B and Russia executed its contingency plan:
—The irrefutable fact is that in 17 DECEMBER 2013 Putin and the democratically elected President Yanukovych of Ukraine signed a bi lateral agreement that would provide Ukraine with money and cheap gas prices ( http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-25411118 )
—-The irrefutable fact as per the 17 DECEMBER 2013 agreement is that Russia did not want to initiate a war in Ukraine nor take by force the Crimea
—The irrefutable fact is that for months several countries funded, organized, promoted, pushed, supported an illegal COUP against the democratically elected government of Ukraine by paying protestors paying for food, providing communications, organizing and coaching the leaders of the protests, providing funds to support thousands of protestors for months and even paying salaries for professional protestors and their leaders
—-The irrefutable fact is that by pushing an illegal COUP against the Democratically elected government of Ukraine, the many countries that organized and promoted that COUP, ended the 17 DECEMBER 2013 political and economical agreement that Russia and Ukraine signed
—The irrefutable fact is that by promoting and sponsoring an illegal COUP against the Democratically elected government of Ukraine, and ending the 17 DECEMBER 2013 political agreement between Russia and Ukraine, those COUP sponsors PUSHED Russia to a PLAN B: taking Crimea and promoting armed resistance in Eastern Ukraine
—The irrefutable fact is that the sponsors of the illegal COUP against the Democratically elected government of Ukraine, killed Putin’s PLAN A (the 17 DECEMBER 2013 Agreement) and pushed Putin to a PLAN B (Crimea and Eastern Ukraine)
—The irrefutable fact is that several countries had as primary mission and objective to push, promote, organize, and sponsor the illegal COUP against the DEMOCRATICALLY elected government of Ukraine (As per the Victoria Nuland Coup coordination call with Geoffrey Pyatt http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26079957 )
—–The Intelligence Assumption using Analysis of Competing Hypothesis (ACH) is that Russia will avoid a military invasion of the Baltics as that means WAR with NATO that has far superior conventional military power and it is an EXTREMELY dangerous course of action that might result in military or economic catastrophe as well as Nuclear War
—–The Intelligence Assumption using Analysis of Competing Hypothesis (ACH) is that BEFORE Russia invades the Baltics (Go to war with NATO) an extreme provocation from a Western country (or countries) will have to occur: another sponsored COUP in a Russian friendly country , bringing Ukraine into NATO, crushing Eastern Ukraine rebels by providing offensive weapons to the Ukrainian regime, kicking Russia out of the world banking system SWIFT, etc., etc., etc. Only after a major geopolitical provocation that test the limits of Russia, would Russia launch an invasion of the Baltics, an extremely dangerous gamble.
—–The Intelligence Assumption using Analysis of Competing Hypothesis (ACH) is that IF Russia invades the Baltics THEN a similar Georgia 2008 scenario will be the MOST LIKELY:
Russia takes the Baltics…Russia is in War with NATO, ( that Russia –NATO war will look like the French/German front in late 1939 and early 1940 with war but no real action), ….NATO will NOT launch a massive military counteroffensive nor attack Russia proper because of the high RISK to escalate to NUCLEAR War,…. and finally desperate Diplomatic efforts by Germany, France, Italy, etc (the big pragmatic countries) will bring a Diplomatic END to that war…., Russia will retreat from the Baltics after days or weeks after the initial invasion….ENDEX
