When dictatorship is a fact, revolution becomes a right – Victor Hugo

U.S. timid and inauspicious reaction to Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and deliberate land grabbing – annexation of Crimea, underscores a poor strategic leadership and an abysmal failure of both diplomatic and intelligence apparatuses to predict, outmaneuver and emasculate Putin’s devious plans: Turning Ukraine, and the rest of former Soviet republics, into a geopolitical chess game to reassert Russia’s regional hegemony.

Unarguably, the cumulative effects of years of disengagement and retrenchment policies not only reinvigorate Putin’s Tsarist ambitions in Novorossiya; but it also bolster China’s territorial assertiveness in South China Sea, encourage North Korea’s nuclear blackmail and, most importantly, embolden Putin’s clients namely Assad’s defiance and Iran’s destabilizing behavior in the region.

Furthermore, Washington’s failure to honor Budapest memorandum – Ukraine agreement to nuclear disarmament in exchange for security assurances, spawned a climate of uncertainty and mistrust, prompting regional allies to question America’s commitment to their security and Ukraine’s territorial integrity,  which further  undermined America’s leadership:

• Eroding regional allies’ trust in Washington’s ability to lead and let alone deterring a voracious Russian bears from devouring the rest of its neighborhood, by simply wielding a frail stick.
• Heightening regional allies’ apprehension and hesitancy to publically realign their national interests with Washington’s for fear of Putin’s reprisal – choking off EU’s gas supplies.

As this simple logic exercise shows:

Given the far-reaching consequences of the aforementioned uncertainties, U.S. Russia policy is in a desperate need for a fresh restart. To this end, and since diplomatic incentives are running out of steam, U.S. and its western allies – Germany in particular, ought to forego their current appeasing posture for a firm and forceful approach with focus on sterner sanctions and a credible military deterrence as only viable mean to reign in Putin’s destabilizing behavior and prompt De-escalation.

Case in point:

• Impose targeted sanctions against Putin’s cash cows Gazprom, and Rosneft.
• Leverage Russia’s feeble economy, which is plagued with pervasive corruption andacute shortage of petrodollars.
• Diversifying EU natural gas suppliers away from Russia.
• Expedite Ukraine’s membership to NATO.
• Honoring Maidan’s pro-democracy movement aspirations of joining EU.

In sum, for current strategies of retrenchments and containment are failing to yield their desired outcomes – reign in Putinism, U.S. Russia policy is in a dire need of a major overhaul underlining clear strategic and attainable objectives to bring about the desired change in Russia’s destabilizing behavior in Ukraine and the rest of the region. Conversely, failure to adapt America’s foreign policy to the region’s complex challenges will not only undermine U.S.  Strategic interests across the globe – pivoting/rebalancing- or America’s allies confidence in its ability to lead; but also who we are as nation and what we stand for and, by extension, U.S. preeminence.