By Gary A. Grappo.
The negotiations between the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany, known as the P5+1, and Iran are currently scheduled to conclude in about six weeks. Prospects for a successful conclusion that would rein in Iran’s nuclear weapons program, which would lead to gradual lifting of economically painful international sanctions on Iran, appear dim. But that isn’t the only thing inhibiting a thaw in the 35-year deep freeze in relations between the US and Iran.
On the negotiations themselves, now nearly one year on and extended once already by five months, things are not going well. The US and its P5+1 partners seek to reduce the number of Iran’s centrifuges from the current number of almost 20,000 – about half of which are operational – to around 1,500, i.e., enough to produce enough low-grade enriched uranium for Iran’s research program but nothing more.
So far, the gap isn’t even close to being bridged. In fact, Iran’s Supreme Leader, Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has never shown much support for the negotiations, has asserted that his nation will have to build 190,000 centrifuges over the long term, a nearly 20-fold increase in the country’s current operating capacity and more than 100 times more than what the international community is prepared to live with. How does one even begin to negotiate when such a chasm remains between the two sides?
And this does not even speak to Iran’s ballistic missile development program, which the Islamic Republic refuses even to discuss.
After President Hassan Rouhani’s peace and friendship initiative last year, including an exchange of exchange of letters with President Obama, reality seems to be setting in. The P5+1 try to be hopeful that a deal can be struck. If the right deal can indeed be struck, it would significantly reduce tensions in the Middle East and most especially between the US and Iran.
But even with the right deal on its nuclear weapons program, Iran would still be far from any rapprochement with the United States. The new president’s pleasant words and admittedly appealing effort to show the kind of basic courtesy that his juvenile predecessor took such pride in eschewing are a start. But here are a few things to remember before considering future relations between the two governments.
Iran ranks among the world’s most ideologically driven nations. That ideology, suffused with an artful cloak of religion, presents the United States and Israel as the leading causes for the world’s ills. The US is still referred to as “the Great Satan” in Iranian government media. Its theocratic dictatorship subjugates its people in the name of the Islamic Revolution, which takes precedence over the rights and interests of Iranian citizens, and uses it to justify criminal actions to defend that leadership and its virulently anti-American campaign. Nothing Mr. Rouhani has said or done since taking office – nor anything from the Supreme Leader – suggests that Iran intends to modify an ideology substantially unaltered since 1979.
Beyond accepting limits on their nuclear development program, the new Iranian president and more importantly Supreme leader Ali Khamenei will need to undertake some critically important actions before anyone in the US government could consider warming relations.
· Suspend Iranian government support for terrorism and terrorist organizations. This may prove a greater hurdle than the nuclear deal. Since 1979, state support for terrorism has been an essential component of the Islamic Republic’s ideology, reaffirmed repeatedly by the Supreme Leader and his predecessor. The most obvious place to begin is Hezbollah. All funds to its terrorist and violent activities should cease. Also, support for militant Shiite organizations in Syria and Iraq also must be terminated. Internationally wanted terrorists, including Ahmed al-Mughassil and Hussein Mohamed al-Nasser, wanted for the 1996 bombing of the Khobar Towers in Saudi Arabia that killed 19 US airmen, should be expelled from Iran. Iran also needs sign and ratify the International Convention for the Suppression of the Financing of Terrorism.
· Condemn the Government of Syria and Syrian President al Assad for gross abuses against Syrian citizens, including the use of chemical weapons. Such condemnation from the Syrian regime’s strongest backer would be more effective in preventing future cruelties against Syrians than Security Council resolutions or military strikes on Syrian weapons sites. Iran should suspend the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps’ involvement in the conflict, especially training and arming Shia militia in Syria and Iraq. Concomitantly, the Iranian president should offer his government’s cooperation in reaching a peaceful and negotiated settlement of the Syrian civil war, eliminating terrorist elements like the Islamic State within Syria, and eventually transitioning Syria to democratic rule.
· Support Middle East peace. This would mean starting with ceasing all threatening rhetoric and action against Israel. From its inception, the Islamic Republic in both word and deed has undermined Mideast peace and threatened the State of Israel, even calling for its removal from the map of the Middle East. While formal recognition of Israel will have to await many other actions, simply halting Iran’s menacing talk and support for organizations seeking the demise of the Jewish state would offer a breathtakingly transformative approach to the country’s foreign policy. Mr. Rouhani should also unambiguously repudiate the reprehensible remarks of his predecessor on the holocaust. Finally, the president should announce his country’s support, as have most other Muslim nations, for a final, just and lasting peaceful settlement of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
· Defend human rights in Iran. While far from perfect, Iran has made some progress toward democracy in its country. But its human rights record is abysmal. Several political prisoners have been released, including some prominent human rights advocates. But how many more Iranians remain imprisoned for merely expressing their views? There can be no genuine democracy when political opposition is threatened with imprisonment and the media muzzled. Mr. Rouhani should also call a halt to the Islamic Republic’s unrelenting persecution of members of the Baha’i faith.
He could even assume historic world leader stature by calling for dialog and reconciliation between Sunni and Shi’a Muslims around the world, starting with Iraq and Syria, where hundreds of thousands have died in sectarian feuding just in the last decade. None of this is to suggest that the U.S. and P5+1 should not pursue a deal to contain Iran’s nuclear program. The U.S. successfully negotiated meaningful arms agreements with the Soviet Union when the latter showed no inclination to modify its ultimately self-destructive communist ideology. We can no doubt do the same with Iran.
However, no one should be under any illusions about the Islamic Republic or the possibility of warm relations between it and the United States. As long as its patently unacceptable ideology, consequent policies and resulting actions persist, Iran will remain a pariah state and not one with which the US could ever hope to have a constructive relationship.
