By Nake M. Kamrany.
The longest war in U.S. history may be winding down next year after 13 years, the most conflicted and elusive U.S. war. Thanks to President Barack Obama’s decision to speed up the withdrawal of U.S. troops in the spring of this year instead of later during summer, saving American and Afghan lives and wealth. This 180 degree shift in policy augurs well for the arrival of peace in Afghanistan since it has been in wars for 31 years. The expectation is that fighting will stop when foreign troops are gone. Afghans have resisted foreign troops from the time of antiquity to the present at enormous cost of lives and wealth. The current resistance is no exception. The critical question especially for Afghans is the issue of peace. Is there going to be peace or war after foreign troops leave Afghanistan? There are a number of issues that may shed light on the issue peace and war after foreign troops withdrawal.
1. Is the Central Government going to be overthrown or a process of governance will continue? – Looking at the recent history nearly two years after the withdrawal of Soviet troops in 1989 the Marxist government was overthrown. Although the military was strong and well organized, it disintegrated. There are two factors that may obviate an overthrow. First, the U.S. is attempting to get the Taliban to participate in a peace accord with the Central government encouraging the Taliban to participate through the political process in some form of co-alition government. Secondly, the U.S. is busy training and equipping the central government’s military force to reach 350,000 and providing substantial training and equipment.
It is unlikely that the central government will survive after foreign troops withdrawal however. First, the Taliban have been reluctant to participate in the peace process with the central government and secondly, the shadow government of the Taliban is already in a dominant position with respect to the population and land areas of Afghanistan. Besides, the Afghan military’s loyalty is to their warlords rather than the central government and it will disintegrate rather rapidly Moreover, the emerging government may take punitive measures against those Afghans that are thought to have cooperated with the invaders unless a general amnesty is agreed upon.
A positive note on this issue is the communique that the Taliban issued during the Paris peace conference on Afghanistan. It stated that the Taliban believed that all Afghan factions (tribes, ethnicity, etc.) were entitled to legitimacy and participates in the government and that women had the right for schooling and employment. Under this axiom it is possible that the current Central government will be replaced readily and new government may emerge with minimal distortion. This might be the most likely outcome. There is no doubt that the emerging government will do away with corruption, warlords, drug lords, and impose special taxes on the 1% of the population who became rich by exploiting their government connections.
2. Is there deep dissonance/discord between ethnic groups among the population? Recent history demonstrates that the ethnic groups during the reign of former King Zahir Shah was in relative peace. First of all, Afghanistan’s population is nearly 100% Moslems. Although there is a minority of Shiites, but the two factions have lived in peace for nearly centuries. The only difference is language. There are two prominent languages (Pashtu and Farsi). There are some frictions on this issue but it is not serious and in the city of Kabul most of the population is bi-lingual.
Although the Pashtun population are in majority and have dominated the government since the 1700s, however, the other ethnic major groups are gaining relative political power. In terms of per capita income, the northern region (Ozbecks and Tajiks) tops the rest followed by central, south-western, ester, southern and central regions. However, the differentials are no significant. In other words, there is no misdistribution of income, wealth or land in n Afghanistan as it prevails in other countries such as Columbia. Given the above parameters, in the post-war period, the sources of conflict among the population of Afghanistan are minimal and they should be able to iron out most of it.
3. Another positive note for peaceful post-war Afghanistan is the weariness of the population with wars. It was in 1978 when the Marxist government overthrew the then established government of Afghanistan and since then some form of wars (Soviet-Afghan, Afghan-afghan, and U.S. Afghan) have ensured with pervasive damages in lives and wealth. Afghanistan needs peace to exploit its rich mineral resources, produce agro-business including a variety of fruits, promote tourism, construction, and infrastructure and continue with its rapid growth of transportation and communication. Its recent annual growth of gross domestic product (GDP) is very favorable. If these trends continue in the postwar period, Afghanistan’s per capita income could converge and surpass some its neighbors.
4. It appeared that President Obama wanted to quit Afghanistan altogether. Regardless of what happens to U.S. role after 2014, there is indeed a deluge of uncertainty among Afghans. Those who were employed by U.S. forces and international agencies fear loss of employment. Landlords fear loss of rent and excessive vacancy, government officials fear loss of jobs, budget and wages, and university students are uncertain what lies ahead. While the U.S. generals say that the sitting government will be able to procure security, the control of land and people are moving exactly the opposite direction. The Taliban hold is gaining on a daily basis. Just like the Marxist President Dr. Najib, the days of President Karzai may be numbered. And a takeover by the Taliban may not be a matter of months but weeks.
5. Needless to stay, post war Afghanistan is a deluge of ambiguities. Nothing is certain for Afghans as the explicit and implicit damages of such a long war in terms of socio-political, l economic and psychological are going to be pervasive. U.S. insistence for a security agreement will cause the war to continue.
6. THE ILLEGAL AND CRUEL OCCUPATION AND DESTRUCTION OF AFGHANISTAN BY THE FORMER SOVIET UNION (1979 -1989) AND U.S.-NATO NATO INVASION AND OCCUPATION (2001 – CONTINUING) CONSTITUTE CRIMES AGAINST HUMANITY AND THERE IS NO STATUE OF LIMITATION OR TIME LIMITATION. THE ISSUES MUST BE PURSUED LEGALLY, IN THE INTERNATIONAL COURT.’.
7. THE SOVIET UNION INVASION WAS MOTIVATED BY ITS INCORRECT AND FALSE THINKING THAT THE CORRELATION OF FORCES BETWEEN THE TWO SUPERPOWERS HAD SHIFTED IN FAVOR OF THE SOVIET UNION PROMPTING IT TO INVADE AND OCCUPY INNOCENT AFGHANISTAN CAUSING ENORMOUS DAMAGES WHICH AFGHANISTAN SUSTAINED. DAMAGES SUSTAINED BY AFGHANISTAN IN THE 1980S WAS ESTIMATED AT $620 BILLION. I WILL MAIL YOU DOCUMENTATION.
8. THE U.S. INVASION WAS PROMPTED BY U.S. FAULTY VIEW OF TALIBAN ASSOCIATION WITH BIN LADEN. HOWEVER, NO EVIDENCE HAS BEEN PRODUCED THAT THE TALIBAN OR ANY AFGHANS WERE ACCESSORY OF BIN LADEN’S AGENDA BEORE OR AFTER 9/11. MOREOVER, NATO WAS A DEFENSIVE PACT, AFGHANISTAN HAD NOT VIOLATED ANY SOVEEIGN RIGHTS OF NATO MEMBERS. IT FOLLOWS THAT ALL NATO MEMBERS WHO PARTICIPATED IN THE INVASION AND OCCUPATION OF AFGHANISTAN ARE INDIVIDUALLY AND COLLECTIVELY LIABLE FOR DAMAGES AFGHANISTAN SUSTAINED..
9. THESE ISSUE MUST BE TAKEN UP BY INTERNATIONAL COURT, INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS AND INTERNATIONAL LAWYERS FOR JUSTICE AND EQUITY.
10. It is encouraging that your FEDERATION is seeking a reasonable, peaceful resolution and it is inclusive of organization to promote peace through reconciliation among the contending parties and stakeholders.
11. With peace Afghanistan will be a perfect place, and it is up to Afghan responsibility to make it a perfect place. The future of Afghanistan must be decided by Afghans. But what the international community can do – is to help give the Afghans a chance, an opportunity to seek a long, overdue and hard-earned peace and immediately pull out all their troops out of Afghanistan and accept war reparations, retribution, payback and justice.
12. Perhaps a peaceful resolution of the issues is for Afghanistan to join the International Criminal Court (ICC) whose treaty is based on the Rome Statute of ICC -the court’s founding treaty – which will give the Afghans a venue to pursue war crime charges, end the war now, stop insistent bombing. Although the U.S. dominates the U.N. and international organizations, Afghanistan has no other recourse but to expect a fair ICC ruling.
13. It should be noted that some members of the Warsaw pact subsequently joined NATO and sent soldier to Afghanistan doubling their war crimes and liability.
a. These facts raise many moral and legal obligations to be addressed in due course, however. The facts and long term implications of these wars causing deep and sustained damages upon the people and country of Afghanistan must be fully understood.
b. In light of these facts the post-war government of Afghanistan must assume all responsibility for security and reconstructions on its own and reject any military security agreement with any country for the simple reason that any military security agreement with the United States will subjugate Afghanistan to a foreign power occupation and prolong insecurity and wars. And it will not gain any economic benefits as it did not over the last 13 years of occupation by US/NATO.
