By Gary A. Grappo.
Summary: Events in the Middle East appear to be converging, making for a dangerously combustible mix and further complicating decisions for policy makers.
In Syria, Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the Palestinian Territories, events appear to be spiraling as new actors enter the picture and old issues re-emerge. These include significantly increased involvement of Russia in Syria, a new alliance in the region, exchanges of dangerous rhetoric between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and a disturbing rise in violence in Palestine and Israel, especially Jerusalem. Against the backdrop of other intractable issues in the region – Libya, Yemen, terrorism and uncertain economies, to name only a few – these events almost appear to be moving toward a perfect storm, in which solutions become ever more elusive and problems exponentially more serious.
Consider the following.
- Russia’s move into Syria: With Syria-based fighter aircraft attacking non-ISIS (often US-supported) opposition forces and even deploying ground troops – Russia has significantly altered the strategic landscape in that country. US and coalition options previously available either no longer exist or are constrained, e.g., no-fly or safe zones.
- Russia’s challenge to NATO and the US in the Middle East: The recent, allegedly stray flights by Russia’s fighters into Turkey are intended as a signal to Washington that it isn’t the only major power now in the Middle East and a warning to Turkey about siding with the US in stepped-up engagement in Syria. It is especially relevant given President’s Erdogan’s party’s recent parliamentary majority and would not be out of character for Russian President Vladimir Putin. It’s what he’s done in Ukraine and now in Syria by bombing US-backed opposition forces. It bears Putin’s signature MO – challenge the US.
- The Moscow-Tehran-Baghdad-Damascus coalition: We can add Hezbollah and Iraqi Shi’a militia to this alliance as well. It has introduced new, or exacerbated existing, tensions, further complicated the situation in Syria and in Iraq, and unquestionably raised the stakes for the US and its Arab and Israeli allies.
- Iran’s stepped-up and threatening rhetoric against Saudi Arabia in the wake of the Hajj tragedy: Iran’s bellicose rhetoric has injected new overtones into the Iranian-Saudi feud, having spun up Iranian public opinion and publicly challenged the Saudis. At the recrnt Vienna talks on the Syria crisis, harsh words were exchanged between the senior envoys of both countries.
- An effective fatwah issued by 50+ Saudi clerics against Russia and all things Shi’a/Safavid (and even against the feckless West and the US): It will be seen as a call for jihad and will lead to new recruitment drives among Sunnis worldwide, whether intended, which is likely, or not. Moreover, it will also prompt new sources of money for jihadists in Syria and increased financial contributions from existing sources.
- Public grousing in Saudi Arabia’s royal family: The public calls for removal of the recently installed King Salmon and vicious verbal attacks on his 30-something son, Deputy Crown Prince and Prime Minister Prince Mohammed bin Salmon, are unprecedented among Saudi Arabia’s customarily taciturn and unwavering royal family. A leadership shake-up, unlikely for the moment at least, would send tremors throughout the Muslim world and deal a major blow to one of America’s most steadfast, if waning, Arab partnerships.
- Increased violence and unrest – and a call for a “third intifada” from Hezbollah’s Hassan Nasrallah – in the West Bank: The toll from these attacks – some 40-plus Palestinians and nearly a dozen Israelis – is likely to rise. Palestinian authorities and security forces will be hard pressed to control this, even with the best of intentions. Given the lone wolf nature of the attacks, even Israelis security forces will be challenged to stop them.
- We should not underestimate the highly volatile potential of this latter issue. For it may serve to galvanize the whole sordid range of “undesirables” in the region – Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), who are leading the fight in Syria on behalf of Assad against opposition forces; ISIS; Hezbollah; Shia militia forces from Iraq, Pakistan and Afghanistan; Al Qaida and its affiliate in Syria, Jabhat al Nusra; the Muslim Brotherhood; the Syrian regime’s Assad; and jihadists throughout the Muslim world – all vying to be the anointed leader of the anti-Zionists. Antipathy toward Israel is the one and only unifying component of them all.
The tensions in the West Bank bear particularly close watching. Palestinians are as frustrated with their ineffectual leadership as they are angry with Israel. However, it is the latter that will get the lion’s share of attention and blame. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas is a lame duck. It is doubtful if he can command Palestinian security forces or control the Palestinian street. The frustration, hopelessness and desperation in the streets of Jerusalem, the West Bank and Gaza are palpable.
All this takes place against the backdrop of all the other issues plaguing the region and of declining confidence in the US. This tempest of events renders predictions off the charts.
It also calls for extreme caution by the US administration (or by responsible presidential candidates). But the US will have to act – for example, by: reaffirming its support for Israel; reasserting its position on the two-state solution (despite declining support/hope on both sides of the security wall for it); considering calls for new, internationally supervised elections for the Palestinian Authority (caveat being that only parties and candidates subscribing to the Quartet Principles may run); and giving some thought to a new UNSC resolution that would give Palestinians some hope as opposed to futility and the fate of violence.
All those who pledged aid for Gaza must deliver and then work closely with Israel to ensure it gets there quickly and that genuine development can take place in Gaza without Hamas interference. Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations are a non-starter, however. Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu is right – he has no real Palestinian partner. Abbas has lost all standing among Palestinians and even if he could reach an agreement, neither Palestinians not Arabs in general would support him.
The US must also decide how it will meet the Russian/Iranian challenge, not only to restore stability in the region but also to secure diminishing Arab and Israeli confidence in America. That doesn’t mean a major deployment of US forces, but it will require resolute action to reassert its leadership and commitment to its allies. Syria and Iraq beg for serious policy re-evaluation and decisiveness in Washington.
Those Arab and Israeli allies have very little faith in this administration’s ability to manage a region that’s spiraling. The series of regional policy disasters – Iraq, Egypt, Libya, Yemen, the Iran nuclear accord, the four and a half-year Syrian civil war, and a futile attempt to broker an Israeli-Palestinian peace – provide little solace to them that Washington knows how to confront the current gathering storm.
That means it may likely get worse before it gets better and in ways no one may foresee. And that’s never good for this part of the world.
