By Ayman Shalash.
Over the past six decades, at the very least, western powers have always participated in Realpolitik, enemies enemy is my friend strategy. But looking back at how this policy with third world countries end up with blow back effects, a CIA coinage for policies that backfired, hasn’t it failed, and shouldn’t it be up for review?
During the 25 years since installing the Shah at the helm, the west had always deemed Iran a reliable ally, with a brutal dictator, holding his country together, armed to the teeth and at peace with Israel. If one would have predicted that Iran would turn rogue, it would be laughed up as a mad man’s fantasy. But that is exactly what happened after the 1979 Islamic revolution. A hostage crisis which lasted 444 days ensued, and incursions into neighboring Iraq, which led the then dictator Saddam to invade and wage a senseless eight year war. Today, Iran is deemed as a modern day Nazi Germany on steroids. With nuclear ambitions, and endless threats of the destruction of Israel & USA. They have also been responsible for a large number of terrorist attacks worldwide, along with their proxy from Lebanon, Hezbollah. A rogue state at the highest level.
Iraq, unstable, volatile and at times explosive. A short, yet tremendous history of countless bloody coups, counter coups and massacres. Saddam Hussein, another brutal dictator, but more of a megalomaniac, as proven, when he used chemical weapons both on Iranian civilians and his own people. He too was also an ally in the war against Iran, seen as a bulwark against the Ayatollahs who were attempting to expand their terror network throughout the region. However in the summer of 1990 Saddam’s forces had invaded Kuwait, where his army had raped, pillaged and ransacked the entire country. International condemnation was unanimous, followed by an economic embargo, six months later, a US led coalition had liberated Kuwait from Iraq. Another country going rogue.
Afghanistan, more of a collection of tribes rather than a sovereign state. There were uprisings in 1979, a Communist revolt in the north, while an Islamic revolt in the south, supported by the former USSR and the United States respectively. The CIA had trained and financed, what was then known as the Mujahideen via Pakistan. The effort to exhaust the former Soviet union had worked, and prompting it to implode from within by the late 80’s. In the mid 1990s, after the civil war had tailed off, the Taliban taken control, prompting western powers to put an economic embargo on Afghanistan for harboring terrorists, most notably, the Al Qaeda group led by Usama Bin Laden. The old policy of Realpolitik took its turn for the worse this time, Bin Laden was the mastermind behind the attacks on U.S soil on 9/11, resulting in the deaths of over 3,000 Americans, in the biggest terrorist attack in modern history. Worst of all rogue states thus far.
Today, while war rages on against ISIS in Iraq and Syria. The western powers have put their full weight behind their allies on the ground. Including Turkey, the Free Syrian Army and the YPG Kurdish militants, an off shoot from the PKK (The Kurdish workers party). While Iraqi Shia led government forces, Sunni tribesmen and the Peshmerga, a militia from the semi autonomous the KRG (Kurdish regional government in northern Iraq). Zooming into the dynamics of these allies, a rather gloomy picture of what might be the outcome in the long run.
Turkey: A NATO member, a long term ally. But recent reports have suggested that Prime Minister Erdogan has covertly authorised a passage for volunteers to join ISIS in Syria. The secular reforms laid down by the founding fatherr, Mustafa Kamal Attaturk has all but evaporated and replaced by strict religious laws and customs. Most Turks seem to be in support of such changes.
PKK (Kurdish Workers Party), Turkish Kurds: Listed as a terrorist organisation by the US and the EU. Their main tactic being suicide bombing, consisting of mostly of female volunteers. In the Lebanon civil war, the PKK sent Kurdish fighters to attack Israeli soldiers. Till this day, they still have a training ground guarded by Hezbollah, another terrorist organisation. The PKK also also operate from northern Iraq, intimidating the locals.
YPG, Syrian Kurds: An off shoot of the PKK from Turkey, They are deemed as secular from the surface, but reports of attacks on local Christian ethnic Assyrians, as well as segregation between men and women in town hall meetings prove otherwise. Until recently, the YPG had an alliance with Assad, Hezbollah and Iran. More often than not alliances flip, back and forth, in this region than any other part of the world.
Free Syrian Army: A weak rag tag militia, branding itself the moderate face of the opposition to President Bashar Al-Assad. But heavily infiltrated by the Jihadist group, Al Nusra Front, in order to receive training from US forces. Critics argue that there are no moderate oppositions among the Sunni Arabs, claiming that religiosity is the motive and identity of much of the Sunni Arab population which make up over 65% of the population of Syria.
Iraqi led government forces: Sectarian by nature, financed and supported by Iran. Politicians have personal ties with the Shia militias, popular factions in the war against ISIS among local Shia citizens. senior Shia militiamen have vowed to attack American soldiers on sight. Today, Iraq is a satellite state of Iran, Iran has nuclear ambition, if that comes to fruition, they can always transfer their nuclear facilities to Iraq, assuming UN weapons inspectors would be allowed in.
Peshmerga, Iraqi Kurds: A militia belonging to the semi autonomous Kurdish regional government, the KRG in northern Iraq. Like Baghdad, Irbil, the capital of Iraqi Kurdistan, has allegiances to Tehran, for years KRG has sold cheap refined oil to Iran, due to its lack of oil refineries. They also have warm ties with Erdogan, allowing them to sell oil to the international market via Turkish sea ports. As for the Peshmerga, dozens of eye witness accounts, testified that they had abandoned Yezidis and Assyrians, in retreat from the oncoming ISIS soldiers marching into Nineveh from Syria. With the help of western powers, they managed to repel ISIS, but while doing so, reports concluded that they had looted Assyrian homes.
Given the history of backing countries or militant groups from the third world.
It would be wise to set strict conditions, rather than unwavering support that could lead to nightmare scenarios of ‘creating a monster’, coupled with a flak from certain media outlets, always itching to blame the west for blow back scenarios. But what conditions could that be? What pressure could the west exert on factions, who are likely to be duplicitous. The blow back seems to get worse each time it happens, whether its Afghanistan with 9/11, Iraq with ISIS or Iran and its nuclear ambition.
Unless the powers that be have an honest and open dialogue about the underlying problems of the internal and external Islamic warfare as well as the false notion of maintaining a guilty conscience over previous western colonisation. This trend is likely to continue, making the world a more dangerous place, with the increase of terrorist attacks and fueling right wing populism, sowing the seeds of a great clash between the western world and the third world. A scenario the establishment have been desperately trying to avoid for at least six decades, if they continue this policy, the blow back we will witness maybe their last one, one that they may look back and think ‘If only we learned’.
