By Pramod Raj Sedhain.
As the first American chief guest at the 66th Republic Day parade President Barack Obama closely watched the Indian military might in the Indian capital. The two-hour-long procession might not be a matter of interest for the world superpower’s President but what is significant is Obama’s presence on the occasion when it comes to regional geopolitical future. During Obama’s three-day visit, he received the highest level of respect from Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who received him by breaking the protocol. Modi welcomed Obama at the airport with a warm embrace. Breaking protocol is not a big issue. The important issue here is American policy shift towards Asia. Obama was received by sitting Indian PM Manmohan Singh in 2010 at the airport. Singh also received at then US President George Bush at the airport in 2006. India is surely strategic for America and depends on different dimensions and factors.
Obama’s (two times) visit to India during his tenure signifies Indian geopolitical importance in the region. During the visit, Obama announced multibillion-dollar support for Indian infrastructure projects. Modi announced at a press conference about successful negotiations over a civil nuclear deal and new 10-year defense cooperation agreement with America. Both countries announced boosting bilateral trade from the current level of around $100 billion a year to $500 billion by 2025. Sharing intelligence to “defining partnership” has been pending issues. Both leaders expressed “warmer relationship” indicating thus strengthening India-US alliance in the Asia-Pacific region.
The rise of charismatic leader in Asia’s giant Indian can easily gain the support of American administration. Single party’s decisive victory in the world largest democracy has become easy to transform, deepen and expand relations in the international arena. US has seen Modi as an architect of new India with the expectations that he can transform the country’s economy to diplomacy and establish India as an Asian hub. The world’s second populated and english speaking nation India is currently encouraging foreign direct investments and America sees future in it. According to U. N projection, India can overtake China as world’s biggest country by 2030.
India, the world’s ninth biggest military spender, buys more than sixty five percent of its military equipment from foreign nations. Washington wants to become the top defense equipment supplier. Next generation of aircraft carriers and battle-proven aircraft are big defense projects of America in the world’s biggest arms importer India. India’s huge market can be the number one arm importer of America. Indian market growth can be seen as a potential market for American products. But the country still faces several fault lines. However, India’s prosperity is America’s priority because of U.S. regional interest.
Several respected U.S. scholars have focused India since the last several decades. Indian-born Americans have gained more respected positions in the US government and other academic ranks. Hindi cinema and media popularity has been expanding cultural influence. India born American Dalip Singh Saund who was elected the voting member of the United States Congress legacy currently holds the Nimrata Nikki Randhawa Haley in US politic. Journalist and author Fareed Rafiq Zakaria, author Padma Parvati Lakshmi, actor Kal Penn, actress Vera Mindy Chokalingam, film director Manoj Shyamalan, Miss America 2014 – Nina Davuluri, comedian Aziz Ansari, singer Geetali Norah Jones Shankar, neurosurgeon Sanjay Gupta, astronaut Kalpana Chawla, physician Sneha Anne Philip are some of the Indian-origin influential persons in United States. Such people can be termed as ‘heritage’ of Indian influence in America. There are so many Indians who are virtually influential in all sectors in America – from information technology, business, academics, culture, legal, science, and administration to diplomacy. This trend will certainly have an Indian influence in the United States’ policy. Such different levels of influence in American society will help in strengthening relations between the two countries.
We cannot understand America’s foreign affairs without reading the American foreign policy master Henry Kissinger’s Books. The six decades long foreign policy veteran’s latest “World Order” is a comprehensive foreign policy analysis with historical perspective that reflects the US future engagements and role in Asia. The book focuses on India more than Japan and other US key Asian ally. India has been solely referred on 17 pages (192- 208). The author has very minutely and impressively described India’s past history, present and future perspectives.
The book also focuses Indian’s civilization, colonial past, from history to present situation, traditional diplomacy and economy, internal problems, security to moral values. Possibility to challenges, potentiality in future and dynamism, philosophical tradition to cultural influence, past to future, Indian’s ambition to US balance, Modi policy, Ruling dynasty, Indian bargaining tactic, and even Kautilya’s classical diplomacy to traditional economy and future.
Kissinger also sees huge internal challenge in India and says, “India’s role in world order is complicated by structural factors related to its founding. Among the most complex will be its relations with its closest neighbors (Page 206, World Order)”. He is optimistic on rising India but does not see any strategic level relations at present. He sees Indian’s legitimacy balancer in the Indian Ocean and sees strong spheres of influence over there by friendly means.
We will be able to understand a little bit about India by reading William Antholis book “Inside Out India and China”. The U.S. Strategic scholar traversed twenty Indian states, held conversation with Narenda Modi as well as dozens of other Indian policy makers. This book too is optimistic about rising India in future and is equally worried of complex US foreign policy because of Indian domestic factors.
Challenges ahead
Rising India is still not a major world power but it sets big global priorities and projects. United States does not want any problematic approach between India and Pakistan. India cannot support US military or strategy in global engagements and affairs. India still needs vast infrastructure and manufacturing to reach the western standard. America is fully aware of Indo-Russian strategic ties and possible complexities of defense trade. New Delhi still relies on Moscow’s weaponry system which was installed during the Soviet-era military products and technologies.
U.S. has not yet emphasized on strategic partnership, which is India’s desire at the practical level. Such dialogue had been discussed even the Bush administration. But India is significant for America and it accept its growing role diplomatically. United States has some pragmatist strategic policy problems like India-Pakistan tensions that need to be balanced by both sides. If U.S. moves towards closer strategic diplomacy with India, Pakistan might shift its defense strategy towards China, which in future can create problems for United States. In such a scenario, Washington cannot only remain as a global superpower which can influence both Islamabad and New Delhi to sit for negotiation to normalize the relationships. America wants improved relations between the two countries, which is important for regional stability. But military tensions on the border, Kashmir issue, terrorist attacks on Indian soil and blame game cannot be easily solved between the two arch enemies. Even the handshake between the India and Pakistani prime ministers becomes big news in the region.
India has undeniable influence over Bhutan, Nepal, Sri Lanka, the Maldives and continues to seek more role in Bangladesh, Myanmar and Afghanistan. US policy makers still are skeptical about the strategic ties with Afghanistan that could provoke Pakistan triggering the risk towards future polarization of conflict. India’s new government has finalized several economic and strategic partnership with Japan, Australia, Vietnam, Fiji to counter Chinese interest but such strategic partnership can prove to be costly for India itself. India still does not have capable mechanism to handle crisis in large scale since it faces complex crisis along the borders with China or Pakistan.
New Delhi adopts non alliance policy in its foreign policy doctrine and does not want radical change with the fear that such a move could be counter-productive. India has lot of limitations in the international forum because of which it cannot pro-actively support America. The U.S. too has some sensitive regional concerns in the region and cannot handover for the sake of sole Indian interest. Two nations’ global vision cannot match fully in diplomatic and at the strategic level. The U.S. will not fulfill Indian expectations in the region. However, it might remain silent in some of the sensitive regional issues when India acts or takes some step. What they did in the past might continue in future as well. Such a geopolitical complexity denotes significant relation shape in the “balance of power” theory.
Indian government’s capability is limited behind the regional boundary but has some security and strategic interests. India cannot flex prestigious military sophistication like US and its ally’s western powers. Indian human development index also shows that it cannot balance for broader cooperation with America. The relations and cooperation between the two countries can improve but it will be too early to assess for comprehensive high-profile breakthrough at least at the present situation.
