By Pramod Raj Sedhain.
Key US intelligence and strategic asset Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and powerful Pakistani intelligence agency Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) have hindered relations since the “War on Terror” begun in Afghanistan. Despite the soured relationship, CIA and ISI have worked in close cooperation with each other in certain issues. However, they do neither trust each other nor they are interested in it. Both the intelligence agencies have been working on the basis of their own calculation and interest rather than mutual interest. CIA has at times come under intense criticism for working with the ISI. The ISI has also been alleged and criticized for its role in Afghan war for protecting high-ranking militant figures. CIA believes that ISI supported targets like Osama bin Laden and Mullah Omar by providing them shelter. Both intelligence services seem to be playing a “double game,” even as Pakistan joined US as an ally against the “war on terror,” in post-9/11 scenario.
CIA no longer believes that ISI has been working in tandem in its effort to counter terrorism. ISI has been alleged of supporting terrorism and extremism even if they trace them. CIA station in Islamabad has a significant number of agents across the Pakistani soil. Both the CIA and ISI are eye and ear of their government policy and both have different doctrines and strategic goals in Afghanistan. They maintain an uneasy cooperation despite their common interest but they try to make an upper hand on several issues. US recognized Pakistan as a major Non-NATO Ally but CIA and ISI are the most unreliable strategic partner of counter-terrorism efforts. Relations between both the intelligence agencies have been uncomfortable and suspicious. CIA has prioritized on covert operation to target against al-Qaida, TTP and other foreign militants from neighboring Afghanistan who plot attacks against US forces. They have huge intelligence network in this region as well a long list of dangerous militants. US military cross-border raid in Pakistani soil is aimed at hitting the ISI proxy militant’s force.
Background of CIA, ISI cooperation
Both CIA and ISI earlier shared similar effort to support the Afghan and foreign mujahideen to covert-fight against Soviet forces in Afghanistan. They not only provided strategic and intelligence support for Afghan militia but also provided training, arms and funding in the 1980s. CIA had an impressive support from ISI role during the Cold War period when Pakistan received extensive military and other assistance from USA. Their relation was bitter after Soviet withdrew from Afghanistan in 1989. ISI solely engaged in the Afghan Civil War in 1990s and backed the Taliban regime. During that period, CIA was focused in Europe and Middle East and paid little attention on Pakistan and Afghanistan.
After seeing potential threat from Afghanistan, CIA agents/informer in Pakistan and Afghanistan were at an unsurpassed level. After al-Qaeda attacked U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania on August 7, 1998, CIA was a realizable frontier as well foreign policy tool for the US government. Their role increased by folds than the Cold War period. CIA’s bin Laden mission began to hunting mission after they came from Sudan to Afghanistan. CIA local agent had a face-to-face with Laden and his fundamentalist supporters several times during the Taliban regime. Intelligence working on ‘Bin Laden mission’ had a huge investment. After increasing instances of terrorist attacks, CIA’s only concern was to get hold of Laden – forget what’s happening in Afghanistan.
As retaliation measures against bombings in US embassies, US forces started targeting Laden hideouts, including remote places. On August 20, 1998, about 75 cruise missiles were fired by the U.S. at four Afghan training camps in Afghanistan from Arabian Sea through Pakistan’s airspace. CIA’s station in Pakistan provided the principle target list. However, Laden had left some hours before the missiles hit. US missile targeted Al Farouq training camp, Muawai camp – run by Pakistani Harkat-ul-Mujahideen to train militants, training camps in the Jarawah, the possible radical leaders’ meeting point .
In the changed scenario in Afghanistan, CIA official’s role became more influential. The CIA station chief in Pakistan is more powerful than its Ambassador. CIA’s Pakistani station operator agent involved in tracing Bin Laden, directly informed the location in Afghanistan and provided information to the headquarters at the Counterterrorist Center. CIA directly briefed President Bill Clinton about the missile attack on their base. However, the President did not give orders to the military to strike on the Laden hideout. Following the 9/11 attacks, US demanded Taliban to handover laden and close the training camp, which the Taliban ignored. US force then launched “Operation Enduring Freedom” on 7 October 2001 which led to the downfall of Taliban regime in Afghanistan. Thereafter, CIA unit hunting Osama bin Laden dramatically increased its presence and activities in Pakistan and Afghanistan. After the Battle of Tora Bora in December 2001, laden and senior al Qaeda leaders escaped from there.
CIA has analyzed that Pakistani tribal region is becoming a global hideout base for jihadist militants. The U.S. covert operations have continued in this region through pay role tribal agents. They also use local tribal leaders to fight against Taliban and other foreign fighters. Several bloody fights between tribal militants and foreign militia have been reported in remote Afghan borders. After failing their initial strategy to fight with foreign militia, CIA used several ground agents, intelligence network to trace the militia movement. However, foreign fighters gained control over tribal areas. CIA then used new approach of war and intensified drone campaign. Pakistan has described those attacks as an infringement of its sovereignty. But several air strikes have not yet gained concrete result but led to militant revenge through suicide bombings in return.
The CIA has often blamed ISI for supporting or planning several strikes and bombings against the US and western interest in Afghanistan. ISI’s concern in Afghanistan has been different with that of USA. After potential strategic threat in Afghanistan, ISI joined hands with some proxy militant groups to secure their interest toll. But CIA easily traced the real channel and mentor of such hostile groups targeting the US and it’s ally’s interests.
Extremists’ ties with ISI had alarmed the CIA. The US had repeatedly pressurized the Pakistani government to hunt down the militants. CIA has also handed over the list of Pakistani madrassas, where jihadists are fed against the US force in Afghanistan. Pakistan started several offensive operations in the tribal areas where foreign and local militia have set their safe haven. Operation was limited and eventually concluded with a peace deal. According to a US State Department data, since 2001 Pakistan has provided assistance in counter-terrorism efforts by capturing more than 600 al-Qaida members and their allies.
CIA not only faced the al-Qaida, their number one enemy, but also faced the most sophisticated insurgent group Haqqani network. The US has accused the ISI that this group has been established as its proxy force to serve Pakistani hidden interests in Afghanistan. US intelligence also accuses the Pakistani secret service of operating the Lashkar-e-Taiba to use the army’s covert foreign mission. They still believe that ISI has not still abandoned to support militia. U.S. has accused Pakistan of using militants and killing of NATO troops in Afghanistan, which Pakistan denies. The US doesn’t trust Pakistan’s commitment to counter-terrorism efforts. Therefore, it raided the hideout of al-Qaeda chief Osama bin Laden in May 2011 and killed him. It also carries out drone strikes in the tribal area without informing the Pakistani security. According to New American Foundation data, 58 al-Qaeda and Taliban affiliated senior leaders have been killed in the CIA drone campaign in Pakistan from Afghanistan .
Who gained the ground?
Question remains, who achieved the strategic goal in Afghanistan? There are several players – not only USA, European Union and Pakistan but Iran, India, Saudi Arabia, and UAE to Qatar have been playing the different roles. Afghanistan’s central command has been in limbo after post 2014 because of foreign intelligence agencies’ competition to get hold of the geopolitical ground.
Iran has also set of cultural, religious, political, and security relations with Afghanistan, which can be a ground to increase its influence. Tajik and Shi’a groups support Iran and are opposed to Taliban. Anti Iranian Baluchi insurgency group killed Iranian security personnel and Iran has security concern as well as Narcotics trafficking. Iran too has a strategic objective of defeating both US, Pakistan and Taliban because they do not want any other hostile force gain the ground in Afghanistan.
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps foreign wing ‘The Quds Force’ has been moving silently to the ground to secure their strategy. They have initiated an extensive covert campaign to play a key role to protect their nation’s interest as well extensive influence over Afghan spies and paid informers’ network. They want to seek a greater role after post 2014 Afghanistan like post US military present Iraq. Iran has certain concerns in Afghanistan because of it’s geographical as well geopolitical situation.
India too has its own national security calculations, and has significantly increased its foreign intelligence agency Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) as well as its Military Intelligence (MI). Both RAW and MI have extensive influence in the government as well as in the security. India also increased its political and economic influence and launched different huge projects in Afghanistan. ISI fears Indian growing influence in Afghanistan and counter-measure strategy. New Delhi and Tehran has had close ties since the 1990s and both might continue to coordinate in the post 2014 Afghanistan. Behind the scene, both countries are actively engaged in countering Pakistani influence over Afghanistan and protect their joint interest. After concluding the fact, ISI played a double game with USA and adapted new tactics to gain the Afghan ground.
After realizing the loss of ground, ISI wants much closer relationship with CIA. On of the most recent examples are the recent prisons swap between Taliban and US government. But current overt action and open rhetoric cannot be the judgment of the final reality. This may take some more time unravel. Tehran’s growing influence in Afghanistan is not favorable for its regional rival Saudi Arabia. Saudi intelligence agency General Intelligence Presidency (GIP) is also playing a role in Afghanistan. Behind the scenes, GIP continues to engage with ISI and Taliban representatives and may have been directly in touch with Taliban figures. The British Secret Intelligence Service MI6 idea is to hold talks with moderate Taliban elements and end the conflict. Other EU intelligence agencies consent with the British. All the intelligence agencies believe that fugitive senior Afghan Taliban leaders are safe in ISI protection.
How Pakistan deals its internal conflict?
USA insisted Pakistan to initiate an ‘all out war’ against militia. However, Pakistan calculated that it will have to pay a huge price. Pakistani military is now in a difficult position to flush out militants since it faces multiple threats not only from Afghanistan but its own territory. Pakistan already faces war or conflict within its own soil. Pakistan has different categories of militia besides widely known TTP, al-Qaeda, Haqqani network but also Sunni to Shia sectarian motivated militia, anti and pro-Indian militant groups such as well sectarian and foreign militants. Sectarian conflict with Balochistan Liberation Army in southwest Pakistan is a battle of different course.
Pakistan faces dozens of major militant groups, which are of deadly and uncivilized nature. There is also a strong criminal gang and internationally organized mafia elements targeting civilians, security personnel to politicians. It is difficult to predict how some of the Pakistani secret elements cut ties with several militant groups. Pakistan military has a high profile threat of retaliation against the militants and could even spread violence in all the major Pakistani cities.
