By Pramod Raj Sedhain.
War-torn Ukraine has become a costly east-west superpower strategic chessboard. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, geo-strategic located Ukraine has been a cross-road between east and west, which the current standoff was not experienced during the cold war era. Ukraine has failed to ensure the non-aligned status to balance between east and west. Both Russia and EU-US involved in the start of the Ukraine crisis to “lead from behind” strategic ‘triumph’ approach. But, later they came to the forefront by interfering in Ukraine’s domestic politics and started using aggressive policy to gain the domination of geo-strategic ground for their own purpose. They systematically destabilized the situation rather than practicing a solution-based approach.
After toppling the pro- Russian President Viktor Yanukovych, Kiev’s new leadership put a ban on the country’s second official Russian language. Instead of coming up with a ‘balance deal’ with both EU-US and Russia, the Ukraine leadership took to hostility behaviors with Moscow that led to Russian firm response. Immediately in response, Russia branded Ukraine’s new leadership as “fascist and junta”. Russia has been threatening to destroy US missile defense systems in Eastern Europe. Russia was already in war against Georgia in August 2008. Such direct response, it seems, is widely underestimated or miscalculated by Ukraine’s new government and its supporters.
With a motive to isolate Russia, Ukraine’s new leadership actively switched on to Western camp by forgetting the geo-political and geo-graphical position. Ukraine’s future remains fragile due to the interest, priorities and perspectives of different powerful countries on the crisis. Western countries and Russia can play a role to stabilize the situation but they have their respective strategic calculation, including promoting their respective influence.
Ukraine underestimated Russia in different time and situation. As a result, Ukraine had to undergo painful consequence in Crimea. Currently, Ukraine’s eastern part is undergoing severe crisis with a significant number of people waging a separatist movement. The heavy industrial as well as mostly Russian-speaking eastern region has historical, political and cultural relation with Russia since the Soviet regime. Soviet developed eastern Ukraine as a war zone since the last four months. Russia and the western countries are engaged in blame-game politics accusing one another for the current crisis. Ironically, none of them seem to resolve the crisis.
Russia and western countries have lots of possible new strategic steps to address the Ukraine crisis. Both misjudged the critical situation and want to own strategic victory. But deeply divided Ukraine has been incurring considerable loss in terms of military, political or social. Military solution or victory in Ukraine is far from reality without balancing the interests of the superpowers. Without a pragmatic policy to deal with rival powers (Russia and EU-US), Ukraine cannot overcome the current crisis.
Strategic significance of Ukraine
Kremlin’s strategic alarm bells began to ring since the protest erupted against Ukraine’s pro-Moscow President. Ukraine’s geo-political and geo-strategic location is significant for Russia’s entire national security, which shares 1,576km long border with Russia. Ukraine has a great strategic, economic and social importance that is helpful for both Russia and EU and US.
Ukraine has been of value long before the USSR era. The country was the second-most important country after Russia during the Union era. Most of the Soviet influential leaders, scientists and scholars were born in Ukraine. Moreover, Soviet established Ukraine as an industrial country because of its strategic value to monitor and control almost Eastern and Central European countries. Ukraine shares borders with Belarus, Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, and Moldova, which play a vital strategic value for Russia and the West. Sea of Azov and Black Sea have equally vital significance for commercial and strategic sea power. Ukraine, the second largest country in Europe after Russia has as a size of 603,550sq km. Its geographical size also shows the importance.
Ukraine is the most important transit country for its oil and gas exports. Ukraine transit pipeline (of more than 80 percent) routes linking Russian oil and gas fields and Western Europe. US-EU wants to control Ukraine merely because they want to bypass Russian energy transportation route from the Caspian region. Russia wants Ukraine to be a key member of Eurasian Union – the Russian concept EU rival economic union. Ukraine, with a population of 44.6 million is an important market for both rival countries. Western powers want to work in tandem with Ukraine as their strategic and economic partner. They want to contain ambitions to expand their sphere of influence. The West also wants to encircle Russia through Ukraine. Russia, however, want to prevent it.
Ukraine’s economic value is equally important. Ukraine is a major agricultural and industrial hub. Its fertile soil is dubbed as the best in Europe. Its capacity is immense in terms of animal husbandry, food production as well as potential breadbasket of Europe. Ukraine is a major manufacturer of weapon systems, expertise to make a ballistic missiles parts, launch pads for missile space carriers, large transport planes, ship building, auto industry, among others. Ukraine is the major producer and exporter of steel. Analysts believe that Ukraine’s 15 nuclear power reactors can easily be converted to produce nuclear weapons.
All these are happening behind the scene. Western countries want to prevent Russia from expanding its influence westwards from Ukraine and Russia puts its efforts to prevent western countries from intervening in the region like breaking up of Yugoslavia. Ukraine currently faces a dangerous line and without power balance instability is sure to continue. Western countries supported the Yugoslavian break-up by force and supported the independence of Slovenia, Croatia and Bosnia. Such actions on weak nations have been directed, guided and manipulated by Western powers to show control and influence.
Root of Conflict
Ukraine crisis began in 2013 when pro-Moscow President Viktor Yanukovych abandoned a deal with the EU in favors of stronger ties with Russia. Streets of Kiev saw clash, almost everyday, known as Euromaidan protests (anti- government protesters). It became global headline stories after the Orange Revolution. Protest and government response turned violent with the government taking on strict anti-protest laws on November 30. However, violence escalated uncontrolled.
On February 21, a compromise deal was brokered by foreign ministers of France, Poland and Germany and supported by Russia to sign the deal with President Yanukovych and the opposition leaders. The agreement included power-sharing and early elections. However, protest continued forcing Yanukovych to flee to Russia. On February 22, a new pro-western government on power is in place. Russia has time and again denied recognizing or giving legitimacy to the new Kiev government. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s confidence might gain more height because he has gained popularity in Russia because of the costless, painless and bloodless strategy to annexation of Crimea.
After the annexation of Crimea, Russian dominant eastern region cities of Donetsk, Luhansk and Kharkiv cities turned violent demanding Crimean-style referendum on independence from Ukraine. Violent clashes continued in the cities and insurgents were more aggressive but local security officials did nothing. On 13 March 2013, there were violent clashes between pro-western and pro-Russian protesters in Donetsk. Government buildings in eastern regional major cities were occupied by protesters. On 7 April, 2014, crisis took to a new height breaking out into a full scale civil war. Ukraine government retook Kharkiv building but occupations spread to other cities, and a number of unrest and militancy dragged the whole region. Ukraine government launched the “anti-terror” operations against the separatists. This worsened the situation further. The US, EU, Russia and Ukraine reached a Geneva deal on 17th April but unraveled instantly. Pro-Russian leaders declared referendums in the eastern region, which were held on 11th May.
Since April, Russian supported separatist rebels and westerners supported Ukraine forces. The rebels now control the strategic position far from the fighting area southeast and opened a new significant front line against the government. Separatists are seeking to create a strategic golden land road linking between Russia and Crimea provided that they succeed in their mission. Another important factor of such strategic gain could control over the entire Azov Sea and the rebels might use their own navy force or handover Russia to control any oil or mineral riches it contains. This will ultimately pave the way for the rebels to control the Russian border land. They can easily penetrate in the government’s reinforcement and perhaps energy line. But it is difficult to analyze right away because of lack of details knowledge of rebel weapons, strength and strategy. The US-EU-NATO and Russia considers that the Ukrainian conflict is a “war for prestige”. Answer remains unclear which power will lose and who will win the war but the greater loser is Ukraine either tactically or strategically.
Uncertain future
If Ukraine fails to control regional and ethnic tensions within a certain time-frame, wars and violence will continue to destabilize the country’s long-term future and hope. Ukrainian economy is on a coma and its unemployment problem is increasing. Poverty, death, destruction, corruption, crime is dominating the transitional political scenario. Several pro and anti government militia have sophisticated weapons with them. This is one of the long-term problems for Ukraine.
