Some western observers continue to see the escalating violence in Yemen, the poorest country in the Middle East, simply as another country engaged in an expanding civil war which is complicated by home-grown rivalries based on tribal loyalties and religious sects.

I, on the other hand, see this conflict as a continuation of what some communicators have described as the “Saudi-Iran Cold War”. Apart from the dangers of a proxy war between the Gulf States and Iran that could last for many years, extremist groups, in particular al-Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula (AQQP) and Islamic State in Yemen (ISY) have begun to use the confusion surrounding this conflict to increase their hold on the region and, in the case of AQQP, see opportunities to increase their capabilities to engage in international terrorism.

Iran

Some western analysts believe that Iran, as well as their close relationship with the Shia- Houthis, also covertly support and influence anti-establishment groups and maintain close ties with members of the Al-Hirkak al-Janoubi, or the Southern Movements, which is a coalition of groups wanting to divide Yemen along the pre-unification lines.

Many of the Houthis slogans, recently posted on walls across streets in Sona, appeared to be Iran inspired political chants from the 1979 Iranian revolution which expressed their revolutionary world view. Slogans such as, “God is great. Death to America. Death to Israel. God curse the Jews. Victory for Islam” not only mirror the beliefs of the Iranian revolutionaries but also indicates that the current crisis is not simply a civil war addressing local grievances.

Saudi Arabia share common concerns with Israel in that Iran, to varying degrees, continues to control four regional capitals: Beirut, Damascus, Baghdad; and now Sana, the capital of Yemen.

Apart from the fears of Iran increasing instability throughout the region and encouraging rebellion, control of Yemen, due to its geography, would give Iran a major geopolitical advantage.

Whoever controls Yemen also controls the Beb el-Mandep shipping lane which connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden, and Arabian Sea. Through this vital gateway an estimated 3 million barrels of oil pass daily (5% of the world’s oil) to Europe, Africa and United States. The security of this gateway is also essential for Israel’s access to the Indian Ocean via the Red Sea and their submarine operations to the Persian Gulf which is regarded essential for Israel’s defence against Iran.

The potential dangers to shipping was made clear in 2000 when AQ suicide bombers attacked the US destroyer, USS Cole, killing 17 sailors. However, we are no longer looking at suicide attacks which cause minimal damage to shipping, whoever controls Yemen will also have access to missiles capable of hitting any ships in the Beb el-Mandep.

Apart from AQAP concentrating on seizing and holding tribal territories in Yemen, and periodically using suicide bombers to attack the capital, Sana, they have also been involved in international acts of terrorism. AQ Extremists based in Yemen have successfully smuggled explosives onto international flights and in January 2015, claimed responsibility for the attack on the offices of the satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo in Paris. We have also seen AQAP gain more support since the Houthi takeover, reflecting fears among Sunnis and thus aiding recruitment to the ranks of the extremists.

Apart from AQAP using Yemen as a secure base of operation, on 20 March the Islamic State announced their arrival in Yemen through the use of four bomb attacks on mosques popular with Houthi supporters, killing more than 130 worshippers.

Due to local and international players, this seemingly regional conflict has global implications: Iranian attempts to destabilise the region and increase their influence through proxy wars; the Shia Houthi rebels supported by Iran, Sunni tribes being increasingly encouraged to join al-Qaeda, the arrival in Yemen of the Islamic State, and the security of the Beb el-Mandep shipping lane.