Accidental Divorce

By Jeremy Sare.

 

 

British politics is growing up to be more like the US. And with it comes a deeply divided nation, an angry electorate and wholesale deception from ruthless politicians.

The reason for calling a UK referendum on EU membership was little to do with a genuine spontaneous desire for better democratic representation. It was, in essence, about political expediency and the personal ambition of one man: Boris Johnson MP. The British public has been drawn through a mendacious campaign into a political vacuum where all our relationships with our immediate neighbours, close allies and domestic partners are all in a state of flux.

 

Prime Minister David Cameron called the referendum last year to shore up the right of his party prior to the General Election. In short, it worked and the Conservatives fell over the line with a 12-seat majority in the House of Commons. He had delivered the first Conservative victory since 1992 and the Right wing showed precious little gratitude. There has been a significant element within Cameron’s Conservative Party which has always opposed the membership of EU and now they could exploit the electoral timing in full.

The campaign turned when the most likely successor to Cameron, his old Etonian chum, Boris Johnson declared himself in favour of leaving. As former Mayor of London, he was well aware of the deeply negative impact on the finances of the City of London in the event of amputating ourselves from lucrative European markets. The City is 15 percent of the UK economy. He had a different view as recently as 2013, “I’d vote to stay in the single market. I want us to trade freely with our European friends and partners.” Regardless of the economic consequences, it was clear Johnson was using the referendum as a launch pad to succeed Cameron as PM. Yes, British politics can be that cynical.

 

The campaign was characterised by a succession of untruths and downright lies forming the central plank of the argument to leave. The projected costs of EU membership of £350m per week was easily debunked. The promise to invest the same amount in healthcare was transparently false. The threat of Turkey joining the EU was a illusory threat and similarly establishing a European army appeared like Brigadoon through the mists.

Yet people voted for it. People voted for and against all sorts of things. They voted against the severe economic austerity of the last six years, against zero hour contracts, against little prospect of an improved economic life. The balance of the UK economy has shifted in recent years to a consolidation of wealth for the older, more comfortable, middle class at the expense of the youth and many working class communities.

 

Neither did those communities, particularly in the North, share London’s enthusiasm for Polish plumbers and Portuguese waitresses. A distinct tension between these electorates meant the Remain camp lost control of the outcome and the Leave camp lost control of what people were voting for.

Still they stoked those prejudices over immigration. The leader of the UK Independence Party, Nigel Farage even suggested that remaining in the EU increased the risk women suffering sexual assault from migrants. Posters portraying an invasion of brown-skinned people debased the political conversation and obvious parallels were drawn with Trump’s crass racial outlook.

 

The atmosphere around the campaign became febrile, divisive and intolerant, not qualities usually associated with Britain. Since the result it has boiled over into anger and retribution. The older generations have unwittingly voted to deny their grandchildren the right to live and work in Paris, Amsterdam and Rome. The predicted political and economic fallout is massive and still unraveling. Many of those who voted to leave are aghast about the dire consequences. Many have acted self-indulgently on base instincts not rational analysis. They have cheered for a political nuclear war with Europe and yet are staggered by the devastating damage.

Today there is no Government in UK. The Opposition has imploded. The Prime Minister is gone. Scotland will leave the union established in 1707. The Northern Irish Peace Treaty is under threat. The currency and stock markets are in turmoil. Recession is inevitable.

 

The British tend to prefer more calm in their lives. So the expected successor Boris Johnson may yet find, “the hand that wields the knife shall never wear the crown.” Lurid details of his dubious personal life will no doubt come increasingly under the spotlight. It is impossible to look with any certainty into the future through all the billowing smoke and debris.

But it seems inescapable that Britain’s international standing will be much diminished. President Obama was right when he said during his last State visit, “the European Union doesn’t moderate British influence – it magnifies it.” But that was then. We can now expect future Presidents looking wistfully down from Airforce One at our little island then flying right over London, on the way to Berlin.

 

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