By Leon Hadar.
IN the aftermath of the release of the “Access Hollywood” videotape, in which Donald J Trump was heard making crude remarks about women, and the ensuing charges by several women that Mr Trump had sexually assaulted them in the past, advisers to the embattled Republican presidential nominee came up with what sounded like reasonable advice.
It was clear that Hillary Clinton, the first woman running on the presidential ticket of a major political party, would do well among female voters. And for years, there has been a gender gap between the two major parties: More women tended to vote for the Democrats who were perceived to be the “caring” political party. And vice versa, more men voted for the Republicans who were branded as more “manly”.
But now, opinion polls are pointing to a YUGE gender gap, of close to 20 per cent, between the Donald and his Democratic opponent. And you don’t have to be a veteran pollster to attribute that to the widespread perception that Mr Trump himself helped to inspire, that he talks about and treats women, at best, like one of those chauvinist guys from Mad Men; and at worst, as a revolting misogynist.
So the Republican political strategists made it clear to their presidential nominee that he needed to invest his time and resources in the last days of the campaign wooing women voters. If, as the polls indicated, he would lose the support of white educated and suburban women who in the past leaned in the Republican direction during presidential races, Mr Trump wouldn’t be able to carry battleground states such as Nevada, Colorado, Florida and Ohio.
Moreover, as the two presidential nominees were preparing for their third and last presidential debate on Wednesday in Las Vegas, politicos and pundits were almost all in agreement that Mr Trump had to chill out, look presidential, stop insulting people ranging from former Miss Universe contestants to his Republican critics, and instead focus on the issues, such as the economy, national security, and immigration.
But Mr Trump seemed to have rejected that advice. If anything, he doubled down on insults, not only rejecting the allegations of sexual assaults made against him, as he continued to do during the televised debate on Wednesday, but also describing the accusers as “sick”, “horrible”, and “phony”. And calling on his adoring crowds to “look at them” – was it even possible that God’s gift to women would be attracted to these women?
Then, there were all the personal attacks on leading Republican figures, such as the Speaker of the House of Representatives Paul Ryan and Arizona Senator John McCain who had dropped their support for their party’s presidential nominee.
At times, it seemed as though Mr Trump was spending more time bashing them and other Republicans than criticising his Democratic opponent and at a time when there was a lot to criticise her about. In particular, the revelations in the leaked WikiLeaks documents about her questionable ethical standards and those of members of her campaign.
And finally, it seemed that the Donald was going nuclear, making it clear that if he couldn’t win, he was going to bring the entire house down. He charged, with no evidence to support his allegations, that if Mrs Clinton wins the race, that would be a clear indication that the entire presidential election process was “rigged” and that the election was stolen from him.
And, indeed, Mr Trump went on to raise more doubts about the integrity of the US election process by describing it as “rigged” several times during the televised debate in Las Vegas. And in response to a question by the Fox News moderator Chris Wallace, he refused to make a clear commitment to accept the outcome of the election. “I will look at it at the time,” Mr Trump said. And he added: “I will keep you in suspense.”
Mr Trump’s response could raise concerns among both Democrats and Republicans that if he would go on to lose the election, he could challenge the results of the election, departing from a fundamental principle of American democracy – the peaceful transfer of power after an election. Such a move could lead to a major political crisis and a legal battle and could even ignite protests by Mr Trump’s supporters.
Earlier, before the debate on Wednesday, Republican vice-presidential candidate Mike Pence told CNN that “we’ll certainly accept the outcome of this election”, while Mr Trump’s campaign manager, Kellyanne Conway, said after the debate that her candidate would “accept the results of the election because he’s going to win the election”.
Overall, Mr Trump seemed to have performed better in the Las Vegas showdown than in the last two televised debates, showing some restraint as he and his Democratic opponent discussed issues, including the Supreme Court and gun rights
But Mr Trump seemed to begin to lose his cool when Mrs Clinton blasted him as a “puppet” of Russian President Vladimir Putin and called on him to condemn what she described as Russian efforts to influence the presidential contest through cyber-attacks on the election in her rival’s favour.
“That’s because he would rather have a puppet as president of the United States,” Mrs Clinton insisted. “No puppet. You are the puppet,” Mr Trump responded, adding that Mr Putin had no respect for her.
The debate then slid into a series of bitter exchanges between the two presidential nominees, with Mr Trump at one point calling Mrs Clinton “such a nasty woman”.
But it was Mr Trump’s comments on the election outcome, described by Mrs Clinton as “horrifying”, that would end up dominating the newspaper headlines on Thursday and could hurt any chance that the Republican presidential nominee might have had to win the support of undecided voters for his candidacy.
Almost all the opinion polls conducted on the eve of Wednesday’s televised debate showed a decisive electoral advantage for the Democratic presidential nominee, suggesting that she could bag more than the 270 Electoral College votes she needs to win the election on Nov 8.
Mrs Clinton’s national average margin in the polls was around seven points, and with 244 electoral voters secure in her pocket, she seemed to be widening her lead in battleground or “swing” states such as Michigan, New Mexico, Colorado, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and beating Mr Trump by wide leads in Virginia and New Hampshire. There were even some signs that she could carry also Georgia and Arizona, two traditionally Republican states.
The Republican presidential nominee, who has only 126 electoral votes secure in his column, has maintained a 2-5-point lead in critical battleground states such as Florida, Ohio, Nevada and Iowa.
The bottom line is that while Mrs Clinton needs only to carry two or three more states to win the election, Mr Trump is facing an uphill battle. In order to win, he would need to carry more swing states than her.
It’s not clear if and how the Wednesday debate would affect this electoral balance of power. But based on results of the first opinion polls, there were no signs that Mr Trump succeeded in delivering a political knockout to Mrs Clinton.
While a large majority of polling organisations are predicting a Democratic win, Trumpists continue to hope that many voters, too embarrassed to admit that they would be voting for the much-reviled Mr Trump, have lied to pollsters, and that we are headed for a big surprise on Nov 8.
The expectation in Washington is that notwithstanding his rhetoric, Mr Trump, if he loses the race, would eventually accept the results of the election. And in any case, it’s doubtful that his supporters – who include many seniors with back problems, who spend much of their time waiting to fill their prescriptions in their local pharmacy – are going to take part in violent demonstrations in support of their candidate.
And meanwhile, we now learn that a possible election defeat would probably not turn the Donald into a political loser. It seems that Mr Trump’s son-in-law has been talking with investors about launching a new cable news network that would probably be named the Trump News Network to cover the first term of President Clinton.
