By Julian French.
Alphen, Netherlands. 17 June. Democritus wrote, “I would rather discover one true cause than gain the Kingdom of Persia”. With the election of the maybe vaguely reform-minded Hassan Rouhani many in the West are again hoping that this new Prince of Persia will also mark a new beginning for Iran.
Much of this can by put down to the ‘anything better than Ahmedinejad’ school of international relations. So what are the implications of Rouhani’s election? At the geopolitical level it is likely to harden dividing lines in the short-term because it will make it easier for the likes or Russia and China to support this ‘acceptable’ face of the Islamic Revolution.
For that reason Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu warned the West yesterday against “wishful thinking”. At the regional-strategic level there will be little short-term shift in Iranian foreign policy.
Perhaps more important than Rouhani’s election was the news this weekend that Iran is to openly send members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard to support the Assad regime in Damascus. This is in direct response to the EU’s incompetent decision to maybe lift an arms embargo but not actually arm the opposition – the strategic equivalent of being a little bit pregnant. However, over the medium to long-term there may be reasons to believe a carrot and stick policy towards Iran will yield fruit.
The oil embargo has made life hard for a growing number of people who simply seek a better standard of living and an emerging young educated middle class who are keen to throw off the ideological and lifestyle shackles imposed upon them by a regime that seems ever more out of touch with this Internet age. However, the sticking point will remain Iran’s nuclear ambitions. In his first statement as president-elect Rouhani cryptically-talked of Iran’s “national interests”.
This can be summed up as seeking Iran’s regional strategic dominance and a Shia ascendancy in the region. CNN’s excellent Fareed Zakeria got it right. “Iran is a country of 80 million people, educated and dynamic.
It sits astride a crucial part of the world. It cannot be sanctioned and pressed down forever. It is the last great civilization to sit outside the global order”. Zakeria is right – for good and ill. President Rouhani has gained the kingdom of Persia (sort of) but his one true cause will for the moment remain as it ever was.
