By Julian French.
Alphen, Netherlands. 14 March. Four events this past month have highlighted the rapidly shifting balance of military power in the world. Yesterday General Sir Peter Wall, Head of the British Army, warned that “moral disarmament” would be exploited by Britain’s enemies and that he could not rule out future “force-on-force” engagement.
In fact, Britain is morally and actually disarming along with much of Europe. According to US think-tank CSIS cuts to European defence budgets between 2001 and 2013 represented a per annum compound reduction of 1.8% per annum or about 20% over the period.
Last month American Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel announced further cuts to the US armed forces. Hagel said it was “time to face reality”, as he followed Britain in announcing a 15% reduction in the size of the US Army, as well as other cuts. Russia’s February 2014 invasion of Ukraine-Crimea should have reminded Europeans of the inextricable link between military power and political ambition, particularly for the non-democracies.
Indeed, what was thought unthinkable in Europe even a month ago is very clearly thinkable in the Kremlin. By 2020 Russia will invest some $700bn in its armed forces and increase defence expenditure from the current $90.7bn per annum to around $122bn.
Last week Beijing announced that the 2014 Chinese defence budget will increase by 12.7% to $132bn per annum. Beijing has been growing the defence budget by at least 11% per annum since 1989.
If China continues to grow the military by about 12% per annum, which is implied in the China’s 2013 Defence White Paper then by 2020 China will be spending $230bn on defence. Whilst such expenditure will not match the planned US c$560bn of expenditures in 2020 taken together the combined Chinese and Russian expenditures on their respective armed forces will total some $350bn. Many of those forces will be modern. .
Read between the lines of both Chinese and Russian military strategies it is clear their aim is to complicate America’s strategic calculation by forcing the US to stretch its armed forces thin the world over. With most Europeans wilfully refusing to help resolve Washington’s deepening and acute strategic dilemma US expenditures of $560bn on defence by 2020 will in time come to be worth far less dollar for dollar and Chinese and Russian investments worth more.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine-Crimea and China’s serial hiking of defence spending really should mark the end of the fantasy of a new liberal world order. It is power that is shaping the twenty-first century not values. And, if values are to mean anything they must be backed by power.
It is indeed time to face reality.
