By Tom Ogwe.
This analysis will broadly explain why terrorism and instability in East Africa is on the rise and the “possible” reasons that points to why this is the Case, with suspicion pointing to a section of OPEC members who are hostile towards commercial production of Gas and Oil in East Africa.
The non- Arab members of OPEC includes Nigeria and Venezuela, the Two countries with Venezuela being a Christian country, prosecute different policies from those of other Oil producing countries of North Africa and the Middle East, namely Libya, Iran, Algeria, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait and Qatar. The elements hostile towards Oil output cut in OPEC have designed the Oil glut to undermine the viability of commercial production of East Africa’s Gas and Oil.
Most if not all the countries within OPEC membership, suffer Dutch disease or have economies that in the past have overheated due to rising oil prices. These countries have economic and security policies that are different from those of the West.
The Arab countries have a policy that is different from one executed by Nigeria or Venezuela. This analysis will look at Arab policies and how the same affects its engagement with secular States. East African countries are secular with a significant minority of Muslim faithful.
Recently when Pope Francis met with Turkish political and religious officials at the start of his second trip to the Middle East this year, the Pope was told in broad daylight that the greatest threat to global peace was the rising Islamophobia in the West. The Turkish officials added prejudices against Muslims were helping fuel radical Islamic groups like the IS in the Middle East and Boko Haram in Africa and that, “Those who felt defeated, wronged, oppressed and abandoned … can become open to being exploited by terror organizations”.
These statements by Turkish political and religious officials largely explains why East Africa is facing is facing economic Jhadism imposed through Transnational organize crime. In West Africa they created Boko Haram; in East Africa the wealthy Arab sheiks funded and created “Mujahidin Swahili” an offshoot of the Al-Shabaab to frustrate development of extractive industries in East Africa.
There is a belief in Muslim religious circles that Oil and gas was gifted to Muslims by God, any production of the same must serve the interest of Islam. This is particularly urgent today, just when the Arab world has started settling from the crisis of Arab Spring.
Analysts and Economist serving Arab Governments found the chatter by western and Chinese investors positioning themselves to invest on oil and gas finds across East Africa unsettling. An oil and gas discovery in the last few years has been massive in East Africa and more than that of any other region in the world, and this boom is expected to continue.
The perception that the West fearful Islam, scare Arab economist that the West Will abandon Arab Oil fields in favor of Animists and Christians regions of East Africa. We have to appreciate that Arab world misused its Oil wealth on useless arms race against Israel and amongst themselves.
Rogue elements amongst them exported and still export Islamist ideologies and their warped radical Islamist teachings to Sub Saharan Africa, instead of using there Wealth positively in developing and stabilizing Arab economies to survive in the absence of Oil and Gas. The Wealthy Arab states pumped tens of millions of US dollars through lobbyist as bribes to World leaders, to make them go slow on policies of alternative fuels.
The bribes paid the Arabs act like Subsidies, this instrument is expensive; the cost of bribing World leaders and bureaucrats not to consider alternatives fuel sources has been going on for years, this “illegality” has been shouldered by wealthy Arab members of the OPEC group.
The amounts World leaders and bureaucrats received as bribes is “pocket change” if compared with the billions OPEC members received on Oil and Gas sells, to global consumers. Life has been good for many years to a typical Arab man on the street; He has no complains, he can afford servants and holidays overseas. The negative consequence of this oil wealth in the raising income associated with their Oil-based economies. This meant that manufacturing and such industries are wiped out,turning the affected countries into a huge market for basic consumer products from other countries.
The Sheiks running the economies of these countries regularly go on a spending spree, buying all manner of western toys to bribe restive populations, the countries high standard of living and its appetite for migrant labor has created industries that are considered inferior by the citizens.This makes it near impossible to create jobs for its youth bulge.
The “Arab Spring” scared the Arab rulers and they quickly realized there countries are sitting on a time bomb. Those who have been bribing officials in western and Asian capitals to maintain Markets for Arab Oil got alarmed when Western journals embarked on promotional campaigns selling East Africa in articles as the next Oil and Gas Eldorado. Independent Oil and Gas exploration companies, such as British exploration firm Tullow Oil and its partner Africa Oil .did not help matters either, they kept making findings which excited Western and Asian Investors.
Sensing defeat and betrayal, lone wolfs or rogue wealthy Arabs sought to destabilize East Africa to wipe out the regions shine away from foreign investors. Conflicts in Iraq, Syria and Libya did not help matters, to ensure that there markets are secured, wealthy Arab countries glut the market to keep investors off new Oil and Gas finds. To ensure compliance Terrorism is unleashed in East Africa through Transnational organize crime.
The thinking behind the terror sponsors, is meant to create the impression that East African region is a basket case. Unfortunately, it is East Africans from the Somali and the Swahili community that are used in the distribution, recruitment and radicalization to terrorist ideology. Terrorist today ask citizens to recite the Shahadda (Muslim profession of faith) or Die!
Animists and Christians parents living in regions bordering Somalia are having Muslims teach there Children how to recite the Shahadda Muslim profession of faith, this is sad but necessary. For instance, victims of Kisauni, Mombasa attack on Monday 17,2014 narrated shocking tales of attackers being young men aged about 18 years . These nefarious project seeks to buy Arab countries time to diversify there economies, before East Africa’s Oil and Gas gets to Market. Fortunately, East Africa is seized of the threat and is corroborating with other Nations to deal with the threat