By The Daily Journalist.
Thirteen years of nuclear cold war between Iran and the United States may be about to finally end. Led by Secretary of State John Kerry, negotiators 5 + 1 (US, Russia, China, Britain, Germany and France) and the Islamic Republic of Iran are about to reach an interim agreement that lays the groundwork to disable the nuclear program of the latter country ‘off’ its military aspect. So, Iranian uranium atoms produce electricity, not bombs. These are the keys that are making the final hours of the negotiation come to an end.
Date: Actually, the only definite date for an agreement is June 30. March 31 has nothing to do with the nuclear negotiations, but with another impossible to solve conflict, which marks global politics from 225 years ago: the fights between the legislative and executive branches of the US. The key is that, as of April 1, the US Senate may vote -and approve- a law under which that body is arrogate two capacities: one, giving the green light or knock down any agreement they reach between the House White with Iran; and two, to impose new sanctions on the country.
If the bill became law, there is no doubt that the US Senate would torpedo any agreement. But would not need even to apply. Its mere existence leaves John Kerry in a sort of puppet, since any understanding with Iran would depend on what the Senate decides. In his State of the Union, on January 20, Obama has already said he would veto the law. His spokesman, Eric Schultz, returned yesterday to repeat it. According to the White House, this matter “is part of the powers of the Executive”.
In fact, Obama has two weeks because Easter suspended the full Senate until April 13. But Obama and Kerry do not want to force things that far, because they could make excuses to harden the already promiscuous Senate.
Deadlines. The agreement aims to not stop Iran from having a nuclear program but Iran maintains its nuclear program in a stadium that would take months to be able to have an atomic bomb. Thus, in the event that Tehran violated the agreement, the international community would have time to re-impose sanctions on that country or, in the worst case, launch a military operation.
The question is at what stage should the Iranians ‘freeze’ the military aspect of its program. The United States wants the agreement is designed such that, if Iran breaks, need at least twelve months to build an atomic bomb. This requires limiting the technical aspects of Iran’s nuclear industry.
Spinners. Iran has about 20,000 centrifuges. Of these, 10,000 are working, as the name suggests, move uranium at an extremely high speed to increase the concentration needed to make atomic bombs. US wants to reduce that number to around 6500-7000. Tehran says it will not accept anything below 7,000. Israel only accepts a number: zero.
Purity . Last night, that was one of the main obstacles. The international community wants Iran to stay with uranium with a purity equal to or less than 5%. The remainder shall be transferred to another country, presumably Russia. In theory, the Islamic Republic has achieved a purity of 20% nuclear fuel. To make an atomic bomb it should reach 90%. At press time it was unclear whether Iran was willing to compromise on this point, Stefano Marchi reports from Lausanne. If not, there will be no agreement.
Inspectors. To ensure that Iran is fulfilling the agreement, the International Atomic Energy Agency should review its facilities exhaustively. And that will be a source of endless controversy, not only from a technical standpoint, but also psychological, because the Iranians will consider such inspections as little more than an affront to its sovereignty. Above, keep in mind that Iran has seen firsthand how Israel pulverized reactors Iraq in 1981 and Syria in 2007 and has dispersed its nuclear program hundreds of sites, many of them underground and almost all secrets. Not only that Tehran refuses to give information to the international community about its nuclear research in the past, which has sparked suspicions it is trying to hide something.
Legalities. Surreal enough, is not yet known how it will be the reflected agreement … if there is agreement. The G5 + 1, led by the United States, want it to be written into a resolution of the Security Council of the UN. It is not a trivial distinction. The seal of the UN agreement gives much stronger and binding from a legal point of view. That is, if Tehran violates it, it will be violating international law. Of course all this is moving in an evanescent kingdom. For instance, the Schultz himself admitted yesterday to the US press, flying on the plane of Obama, that even the White House knows who will sign the agreement, or if need ratification by Congress.
¿Repeal of suspend? Iran wants that if they reach an understanding on June 30, that economic sanctions are not spraying their economy permanently repeal. 5 + 1 only want to suspend them, so that it is easier to restore them if Tehran fails to meet the terms of the pact. But do not stop there divisions. USA, Germany, France and Britain want, if Iran violates the agreement, the penalties to automatically reinstate themselves. Russia and China oppose such a mechanism, and they want the Security Council of the UN to decide new sanctions. That would give the possibility to Beijing and Moscow to use its veto in that body
