Posts by RoieYellinek:
The Meeting Between President Trump and President Xi Jinping
May 11th, 2017By Roie Yellinek.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: On April 6, 2017, the two most powerful men in the world, US president Donald Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping, met at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort. Their meeting went on for two days. Their conversations dealt with political, security, and financial matters. Even before the meeting took place, both parties demonstrated good will. The Chinese forgave what they taken to calling “Mr. Trump’s provocations”, while Mr. Trump invited Mr. Xi and his wife to his home in an act of good faith that paved the way for a positive visit. Both sides attempted to ease tensions and create a basis for healthy relations.
The April 2016 visit by Chinese president Xi Jinping to President Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort lasted two days, and included private conversations as well as multi-participant meals and discussions. For the meeting to take place, both parties – especially the Chinese – had to leave their differences of opinion aside and focus on cooperating for the greater good of their respective countries as well the stability and prosperity of the entire international arena. The conversations concerned political and security matters (the situation in North Korea, the South China Sea, and perhaps the complicated relations between China and Taiwan), as well as financial matters (taxes, investments, and the Chinese exchange rate).
Both parties have a clear interest in creating a stable system of cooperation. If President Trump can succeed at this right at the beginning of his term, that success will accompany him for his entire term, and will help him govern as he sees fit. For his part, Mr. Xi has been president of China since 2013 and is considered the most powerful Chinese president in decades. He does need, however, to score a victory in the international arena, which will strengthen his domestic position.
Mr. Xi is facing a change in the Chinese leadership, and the consequences of his relations with the American president will greatly affect both his current status and his legacy. As the Chinese minister of the exterior put it, “There are a thousand reasons to make China-US relations a success, but not a single reason to break it. Xi Jinping pointed out that cooperation is the only right choice for China and the US, and the two countries can totally become good cooperation partners”.
Events in North Korea are worrying the US, China, and the entire world. North Korea, led by Kim Jong-un, is working tirelessly to obtain both nuclear weapons and the rockets to carry them. All attempts by the West to impede this pursuit, especially those of the US, have failed, despite the severity of the sanctions imposed on Pyongyang for the past two decades.
Mr. Trump, for whom an international political success would allow him to portray himself as a strong leader, wants to restrain North Korean ambitions. To avoid using force, he hopes to enlist the aid of Mr. Xi. China is the sole lifeline sustaining North Korea. As it is China that allows Pyongyang to survive despite the heavy sanctions, a Chinese boycott could subdue North Korea very quickly.
Mr. Trump is expecting Mr. Xi to apply his full might to prevent North Korea from advancing its nuclear and rocket program. Based on reports published after the Mar-a-Lago visit, the leaders agreed to work cooperatively towards a solution, although a time frame for that solution was not reported.
On April 12, the leaders had a phone conversation during which the Chinese president called for restraint on both sides. Two days later, the Chinese national airline, Air China, declared that as of April 14, all its flights connecting Beijing and Pyongyang will be canceled until further notice. Though that step is merely symbolic, one can infer from it that the Chinese government intends to cooperate with the US regarding North Korea.
Another security-political subject that was discussed by the two men is the border dispute in the South China Sea between China and their neighbors. It is possible that the leaders agreed that in exchange for Chinese pressure on North Korea, the US will direct its attention away from affairs in the South China Sea. For China, it is important that the dispute be resolved by the concerned parties and not through external intervention.
The value of the South China Sea for China, as for the other parties involved, lies partly in the vast volume of commercial fishing that takes place in its waters as well as the energy deposits buried beneath its seabed. But the main issue is that about a third of the world’s maritime cargo goes through this region.
The THAAD missile systems that the US continues to deploy in South Korea, as well as Mr. Trump’s undermining statements regarding the “One China” policy, are points of disagreement, and it is possible that compromises on these matters were agreed to during the talks as part of an overall deal.
The US attacks on targets in Syria in retaliation for the use of chemical weapons by Assad’s regime took place during the talks between Mr. Xi and Mr. Trump, but did not lead to any response by the Chinese. It is difficult to say whether the attacks were intentionally timed to occur during the visit, or if the timing was due to operational circumstances. If the timing was on purpose, it can be assumed that Mr. Trump wished to send the Chinese the message that the use of military force is a tool he is willing to use.
During his election campaign, Mr. Trump often attacked China, threatening that he will impose a 45% tax on all Chinese imports into the US because “We can’t continue to allow China to rape our country”. He has not repeated these threats recently, and they will likely remain history. However, Mr. Trump is interested in various infrastructure projects, and will probably need Chinese aid to fund and execute them. Mr. Xi’s offer to Mr. Trump that the US take part in the “One Belt One Road” initiative might have been related to infrastructure planning.
The matter of China being a currency manipulator also bothered Mr. Trump greatly during his campaign, and it continues to do so. Only two weeks ago, he told the Financial Times that “when you talk about currency manipulation, when you talk about devaluations, they [the Chinese] are world champions. And our country hasn’t had a clue.” It appears that this was one of the most difficult subjects to be raised during the talks, but no references to it were published after the visit, so it is hard to say what the results of the discussions were on the matter. Further developments remain to be seen. As Mr. Trump tweeted, “Why would I call China a currency manipulator when they are working with us on the North Korean problem? We will see what happens!”
Before the meetings took place, both parties demonstrated good will. The Chinese forgave what they had spent several months calling “Mr. Trump’s provocations”, while Mr. Trump invited Mr. Xi and his wife to his home in an act of gracious good faith. Both parties require a boost to their status, so the visit’s success was almost guaranteed before it even took place.
The visit went well, with both sides attempting to ease tensions and create a basis for working relations. Following the visit, two agreements were published: 1) the creation of a new dialogue system to cover the subjects of foreign relations and security, as well as finances, law enforcement, and cyber security; and 2) the start of the “Hundred Days” program, during which China will increase US imports to bring a trade balance to the two world powers. Despite the lack of breakthroughs during the visit, there is hope that the positive attitude will endure as these two most powerful world economies lead the international arena.
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Why Did Islamic State Choose to Threaten China at This Time?
March 29th, 2017By Roie Yellinek.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: As the power of the Islamic State (IS) declines, it is becoming less menacing and less able to sow fear in the world at large. The group sees threats against China as a way to renew that sense of threat. IS claims to offer hope and refuge to the Uyghur Muslims, who are subject to a campaign by the central government in Beijing, and thereby to achieve two major goals: recruiting new volunteers and attracting further attention.
On February 28, 2017, the Iraqi branch of IS issued a video, about half an hour long, threatening to strike Chinese targets. “Oh, you Chinese who do not understand what people say! We are the soldiers of the Caliphate, and we will come to you to clarify to you with the tongues of our weapons, to shed blood like rivers and avenge the oppressed.” IS addressed these threats to the people of China in their own language, Mandarin. The video shows adult warriors together with heavily armed children. It features prayers, lessons, speeches, and above all — as is common in IS videos — on-camera executions of collaborators or of those suspected of other acts against the organization. The video also shows images from the Xinjiang region in northwestern China, including Chinese police officers in the streets. China’s current president, Xi Jinping, appears in it as well.
This is not the first time IS has directed proclamations at China. Early in December 2015, the group’s propaganda arm, the Al-Hayat Media Center, issued a threatening message to China in a video that called, in Chinese, upon the “Muslim brethren” to awaken. The video includes a song in Chinese, entitled “I Am a Jihad Fighter,” which declares that “to die in a war on the battlefield is my dream” and that “no power can stop our progress.” It goes on to proclaim: “Our shameless enemy is frightened by the sight of us”; “One hundred years of slavery, let us leave this shameful memory”; “Awaken, Muslim brother, now is the time to awaken — take your faith and your courage, and fulfill the lost doctrine”. The song is aimed at recruiting volunteers among the Uyghur Muslims in China, who could pose an indirect threat to the powerful country.
The recent IS video is different from that earlier video and from other threatening messages against China in that for the first time, IS is threatening the Chinese homeland rather than solely trying to recruit Muslim Chinese. This difference raises questions. How will the Chinese government react to this threat? Will it change its policy in the Middle East? And, above all, why is IS choosing to directly confront the gigantic power to the east? And why now?
The Chinese Foreign Ministry issued a restrained response: “The Chinese government wants to cooperate with the international community in fighting the Uyghur terrorists, who in recent years have committed several very severe attacks in China and murdered hundreds of people. China fears that Muslims from the Xinjiang region, which is in its west, have gone to Syria and to Iraq in order to join the Islamic State in its war to establish an Islamic Caliphate.” It appears that Beijing is sticking with its regular call for a war on terror, directed first and foremost at the threat it perceives from the Uyghurs.
The official statement also declared that “we oppose every kind of terror and actively take part in the international community’s efforts to eradicate terror.” These words suggest that, while highlighting the concrete threat the Uyghurs pose to China, the regime does not intend to mount its own offensive against IS or alter its policy in the Middle East.
The Uyghurs are a Muslim minority of the Chinese population in the Xinjiang region. Unlike other Muslim minorities in China, they demand political independence and are using terror tactics to that end. The regime fears the return of Uyghur fighters who, after long tenures as members of IS, will be more committed to Islamic doctrine, better trained, and more determined to wrest an independent Muslim state from China.
The question of why IS is confronting China right now can be answered by considering two facts: first, China has no military presence in the Middle East that could threaten IS; and second, despite China’s growing dependence on energy imports (oil and gas) from the Middle East, it is not part of the US-led coalition fighting IS.
On February 27, 2017, thousands of police officers, backed by helicopters and armored vehicles, attended a show of force in the Xinjiang region planned by the Chinese regime. The display was meant to demonstrate to the Uyghurs that if they keep agitating for an independent state, the regime will fight them. Over the past year, the regime has issued laws aimed at the Uyghurs prohibiting religious ceremonies. Many studies have found that China’s activities have been turning even moderate Uyghurs into radicals fighting for their identity.
In this state of affairs, with the Uyghurs subject to a hostile campaign by the central government in Beijing, IS is stepping in to offer them a refuge and a hope. IS has been suffering casualties and steadily losing territory. By assuming sponsorship of the Uyghurs, it can achieve several major goals at once: recruit new volunteers, attract attention, and boost morale. To this end, the group issued the video threatening China and portraying itself as the Uyghurs’ protectors.
As IS’s power declines, it becomes less threatening and less able to sow fear around the world. The group believes that by threatening the world’s most populous country, China, including its institutions and representations abroad, it can restore its dissipated power. China realizes, of course, that IS cannot really threaten such a powerful country, just as it cannot existentially threaten any of the world’s other powers.
During the years of its existence, IS has specialized in intimidation through abhorrent acts of terror, and it appears it will continue to do so. The video directed at China’s population and regime is intended to reinforce the threat the organization projects and refresh its supply of volunteers.
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China is getting closer to the Middle East
September 7th, 2016
By Roie Yellinek.
Last Sunday China became closer to the Middle East, thanks to the inauguration of a new freight route. This route connects Yiwu in Zhenjiang, China and Mazar-I-Sharif in Afghanistan. Yiwu is located in east China and it’s the world’s leading small commodities market. Eastern China is the most developed area in the country, so this new route is a big contribution to commerce relations between the two regions.
This is not the first freight route that links China to other counties, in fact this is the fifth route. The first four routes already connect Yiwu with Russia, Iran, Spain, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. All these routes are part of the ‘One belt, one road’ Chinese innovation that started in 2013.
There are two advantages of traveling by train above maritime transportation: One is the travel duration that is estimated as half the time by train compared to maritime transportation, and the second is the ability to make the trail route safer. These two advantages are good for both sides of the route, since it’s made the price of shipping cheaper, and consequently also cheaper for the final consumer.
The new freight route that was inaugurated last Sunday, makes China closer to the Middle East with respect to transport ability and transport duration. There are three implications of this move for the Middle East Region. The first one is that China will become a closer partner in the region economic.
The second implication is the fact that when China has more properties in the area, in this case a freight route, they will become more involved in other affairs beyond the economic aspect. The last implication relating to Afghanistan is that the growing relationship with China will likely make it more attractive in the eyes of other countries, and they may also try to strengthen trade arrangement. Maybe in the future we will see a change, for the better, in the economic situation of Afghanistan.
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The Consequences of Expanding Counter Terrorism Law in China
August 20th, 2016
By Roie Yellinek.
On the 1st August, the local government of Xinjian, in northwest China, passed a new counterterrorism law. This new law is based on China’s counterterrorism law which was passed in December 2015. The location where this law was passed is not random, Xinjiang is the battleground of China’s war against terrorism. The Chinese government and the Uygur minority that live in Xinjiang province, have had a lengthy confrontation. This confrontation includes a lot of terrorist attacks and the main government try to fight against it in some ways, and their final option is the passing of this law.
This law allows the province security forces to use new methods in the fight against terrorism. The legal ability to intervene in others’ marriages, funerals, inheritance issues for religious reasons and so on gives the province security forces the tools to fight against religious extremism, which is believed to be the basis of the terrorism. The new law is designed to fight against the spread of distorted Islamic ideas. Acts such as encouraging others to resist national policies, destroying identification cards, household registration and marriage certificates are also made illegal. The drafters of the law want to achieve deep control of the Uygur Islamic minority, that sometimes take their Islamic faith to extremism places like terror attacks.
What will be the consequences of this law? Experts at the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations said that, “For the past 100 years, domestic and international hostile forces have been making trouble in Xinjiang, so the antiterrorism fight will be a long one”. So it will be a long struggle between the two sides, but this new law is a big step by the Chinese government against the Muslims Uygur minority. It seem to be that the new law and the new collaboration between China and three of her Muslims neighboring countries (Afghanistan, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan) is not accidental. On the 4th of August, high rank official representatives from the three countries and China met in the Xinjian capital, Urumqi. They discussed ways to fight against terror and military cooperation in order to bring about regional stability.
It will be very interesting to wait and see how the Arab countries will react to this new law how damaging it will be to the way of life of the Muslim Uygur minority in Xinjian. Will they protest about that or will they let this go without an action that might annoy the Chinese Dragon? If we learn from history, they will let it pass without any action.
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The implications of the Britain Brexit on China
August 19th, 2016
By Roie Yellinek.
Last year, during a visit to the United Kingdom, Chinese president Xi Jinping called on Britain to remain in the European Union. “China hopes to see a prosperous Europe and a united EU, and hopes Britain, as an important member of the EU, can play an even more positive and constructive role in promoting the deepening development of China-EU ties,” said China’s foreign ministry, paraphrasing Xi’s remarks
Xi’s remarks about Brexit were a big break from Chinese foreign policy. This policy calls for a lack of interference in the internal affairs of foreign countries. Behind Xi’s opinion against UK leaving is China’s difficult trade situation with the European Union. The European Union is currently China’s largest trade partner. In 2015, it sent 350 billion euros imports into the trading block. But some members of the European Commission want close trade restrictions on China. The European Commission voted in last May to deny China as a “market economy” status, what mean that would make it more difficult to place tariffs on Chinese goods. The European Commission also tried in 2014 to increase tariffs on China’s super cheap state-supported steel, and UK has been blocking these measures.
After UK took the decision to leave the European Commission, the EU’s restrictions on China could get a lot tougher. One of the most important newspaper in China wrote before UK leaves the EU’s threat: “The EU is the biggest trading partner of China, while the UK is the one with the highest degree of free trade in the block and it has backed China’s market economy status. London is an important hub of the internationalization of the yuan. A Brexit will undoubtedly cast a shadow on the trade relationship between China and the EU”. The influence of the UK decision on China should be to liberalize its economy to avoid the EU market will move away from the Chinese market, which may be hit too hard, even for the Chinese giant.
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The Interesting Support for the Chinese Position
July 20th, 2016
By Roie Yallinek.
“The international arbitration will not be able to resolve the issue, because one side has been pushing hard for the compulsory arbitration, in an attempt to deny the other side sovereignty… this is unacceptable.” He also said that his “… organization strongly opposes external countries interfering in the issue.” He said, “This will only bring conflict and escalate regional tensions.” Can you guess who said all this (except for minor changes)?
The person who has been in charge of affairs between Fatah and China since 2009, Abbas Zaki, said all this, referring to the dispute between China and its neighbors and regarding the South China Sea. His statements are interesting and surprising since his words are in complete contradiction to the Palestinian position regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
The Palestinian position on her own conflict is to move the conflict deeply to the international organizations, like the United Nations, the international court in Haag, and so on. They do it for one main reason: “… in an attempt to deny the other side sovereignty …,” in Zaki’s words.
If Zaki and the Palestinians think that international organizations interfering in the issue “will only bring more conflict and escalate regional tensions”, why do they try so hard to do the opposite? I guess they are not afraid to support China’s passion in a different way from the conflict they are involved because they know that their support for the Chinese remains on the declarative level, while they hope that the Chinese support will be on the practical level.
So if Zaki’s words remain on the declarative level, these things do not bind the Palestinian side in all disputes they are involved in. In addition, they want Chinese support in their own conflict and think that adopting the Chinese position on this issue will help them, in particular, when the Israeli government said nothing about the South China Sea.
The Israeli government has to verify the Palestinians with this support and to force them to adopt the same way in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Only direct conversions between the two sides would bring results.
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The implications of the Britain Brexit on China
July 11th, 2016
By Roie Yellinek.
Last year, during a visit to the United Kingdom, Chinese president Xi Jinping called on Britain to remain in the European Union. “China hopes to see a prosperous Europe and a united EU, and hopes Britain, as an important member of the EU, can play an even more positive and constructive role in promoting the deepening development of China-EU ties,” said China’s foreign ministry, paraphrasing Xi’s remarks.
Xi’s remarks about Brexit were a big break from Chinese foreign policy. This policy calls for a lack of interference in the internal affairs of foreign countries. Behind Xi’s opinion against UK leaving is China’s difficult trade situation with the European Union.
The European Union is currently China’s largest trade partner. In 2015, it sent 350 billion euros imports into the trading block. But some members of the European Commission want close trade restrictions on China.
The European Commission voted in last May to deny China as a “market economy” status, what mean that would make it more difficult to place tariffs on Chinese goods. The European Commission also tried in 2014 to increase tariffs on China’s super cheap state-supported steel, and UK has been blocking these measures.
After UK took the decision to leave the European Commission, the EU’s restrictions on China could get a lot tougher. One of the most important newspaper in China wrote before UK leaves the EU’s threat: “The EU is the biggest trading partner of China, while the UK is the one with the highest degree of free trade in the block and it has backed China’s market economy status.
London is an important hub of the internationalization of the yuan. A Brexit will undoubtedly cast a shadow on the trade relationship between China and the EU”. The influence of the UK decision on China should be to liberalize its economy to avoid the EU market will move away from the Chinese market, which may be hit too hard, even for the Chinese giant.
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