Introduction

Recently,some positive developments have rekindled the beam of hopes to the peace optimists in South Asia: first, the meeting between the premiers of India and Pakistan on the side lines of the Climate Change Summit in Paris;second, the meeting of Pakistan National Security Adviser with that of India’s in Bangkok; and third the participation of Indian External Relations Minister Sushma Swaraj in the 5th Heart of Asia Conference held in Islamabad,this weak;and finally the meeting of Pakistan Tahreek-e-Insaf PTI leader Imran Khan’s meeting with Indian prime minister Narendra Modi on the eve of a seminar regarding Indo-Pak relations,held in New Delhi on Dec 11.

And of course , the most significant development has been that both India and Pakistan have agreed to restart the suspended peace dialogue– in January next year, at the Foreign Secretaries level– via comprehensive bilateral negotiations primarily including the Kashmir issue.

Background and theme

As for India-Pakistan relationship, it seems an undeniable truth that building a South Asian peace grid, is the order of the day.But the core of a sustainable peace future in South Asia revolves around a meaningful conflict resolution on Kashmir.

While the Pakistan-India relationship marked by mutual acrimony and hostility is stuck in a rut, UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon has said that dialogue is the only way forward for resolving differences and improving bilateral ties between the two hyphenated neighbours.

“I’m convinced that dialogue is the only way forward for improving relations between Pakistan and India,” he told the Press Trust of India news agency on Sunday in the United Nations. “I’ve urged leaders of both the countries to resolve all differences through talks and have offered my good offices towards that end.”

Fortunately India and Pakistan have stepped back from the brink of war and nuclear holocaust, for the time being. But the danger remains, and both countries remain at the mercy of events that they cannot fully control. Fundamentalist elements in  Pakistan, bent on violence directed at India and matched likewise by extremist right wing groups in India, both of whom aim to provoke war between the two countries, hold the future of the region in their hands. Though the resumption of the peace dialogue via bilateral comprehensive negotiations primarily including Kashmir–opens new window of peace,transforming an antagonist conflict approach into a peace protagonist approach, remains the biggest South Asian challenge before the two sides,Islamabad and New Delhi.

Searching a via media media between Geopolitics and Geoeconomics

The political, economic and strategic importance of South Asia is increasing with every passing day.

South Asia is facing multi-dimensional security challenges both traditional and non-traditional. Notwithstanding these challenges, there exists an enormous untapped regional economic potential. Most of the challenges faced by the region are based on deep rooted historic differences.

Consequently political issues and conflicts have not allowed economic and strategic interests to take precedence in matters of policy and development. Some other threats of common concern to most of the South Asian nations are non-traditional security threats such as, drug trafficking, terrorism, environment, climate change, food security, intra region migration, infrastructure energy and water crisis.

Building a peace and trust grid

Many analysts argue that the scope of grooming South Asia via geoeconomics has been hibernated because of regional geopolitics. Yet factually seen,Pakistan seems highly justified to see India as a real trouble creator in Pakistan’s ‘eastern and western borders’.Therefore, to exorcise the region from the negative myths and  politically motivated evils such as the Indian policy of religious extremism, political hedonism,  utilitarian hydroeconomics in the Indian held Kashmir, regional hegemony, diplomatic unilteralism or realpolitik, arm race both nuclear and conventional weapons—is the striking need. In order to promote regional harmony and a climate of mutual understanding between New Delhi and Islamabad, the following objectives are interlinked and need to be achieved :

To make a check on both sides terrorist infiltration across the LOC

To stop all forms of human rights violations by militants and security forces alike.

To resolve the Kashmir issue peacefully, keeping in mind the legacy of partition and the significance of UN’s resolutions

To identify a process for ascertaining the wishes of the people of Jammu and Kashmir regarding their future.

To defuse nuclear tensions and eliminate the risk of nuclear war

To open up the two countries to normal movement of people and trade and create a climate, socially and politically that would promote good relations especially between the peoples of India and Pakistan, and South Asia at large.

To change the policy paradigm: Peace, humanity, nature, and economic growth as South Asia acquires a leadership position in the global economy over the next two decades, a change is required in the policy paradigm of nation  states: from conflict to cooperation, from the production of new weapons as the emblem of state power to the nurturing of a new sensibility that can sustain life on earth.

If sustainable development is to take place in the global economy—indeed, if life itself is to survive on this planet—a new relationship will have to be sought between human beings, nature, and economic growth. South Asia with its living folk tradition of pursuing human needs, within the framework of human solidarity and harmony with nature, may be uniquely equipped to face this challenge.But this argument of globalizing economy has to be organically linked with the political truth that rightly argues that without achieving political move forward on the regional disputes between India and Pakistan,to predict a hopeful economic scenario in the region, yet seems a mirage.

The Kashmir resolution-the core of South Asian peace

Pakistan’s Ambassador to the United Nations Maleeha Lodhi said that the longstanding dispute had to be addressed boldly and decisively if enduring peace and stability was to be established in the area.

She pointed out during a debate that for over half a century UN resolutions pledging a plebiscite to allow the Kashmiri people to exercise their right to self- determination had not been implemented.

“Instead the people of Kashmir have suffered brutal oppression,” she said, adding that the urgency of peacefully settling the dispute was even more compelling today.Before a final or formal dialogue starts between the two governments on resolving the Kashmir issue,the following parameters need to be immediately adopted:

  1. Ask both sides to shun competitive aggressive statements on the LoC and maintain the sanctity of the ceasefire agreement of 2003 by formalising it
  2. Forbid the use of heavy artillery in the populated areas, and ensure de-mining on the LoC in keeping with international standards to prevent human casualties on both sides
  3. Ensure regular meetings between the Directors General of Military Operations (DGMOs) of the two sides and increase frequency of local command level meetings
  4. Follow the existing 48-hour moratorium on retaliation
  5. Ask the security forces to handle all inadvertent crossings on either side of the LoC carefully and sensitively

The Afghanistan factor

“It is a crucial conference [Heart of Asia] that I have come to attend,” Indian Minister for External Affairs Sushma Swaraj said, adding she hoped for improved relations between the two countries and that was the message she brought with her.

The dynamics of the trilateral relationship between Afghanistan, India and Pakistan are complex and over-lap other geopolitical rivalries and tensions. Initially the United States was concerned about Indian involvement in Afghanistan, largely reflecting Pakistani concerns. Now it wants more active Indian involvement, although with the caveat that the US recognizes Pakistan’s likely concern at an Indian military presence in Afghanistan. India is highly unlikely to commit troops to a security role following the withdrawal of most Western troops in 2017, and does not wish to take a unilateral security role in Afghanistan. At the 2012 Kabul ‘Heart of Asia’ conference, India offered to lead two confidence-building measures, intended to support Afghanistan and integrate it into the regional economy.But this apparent Indian notion, practically negates its intent.

Within India there is confidence that it can ‘take a lead in facilitating trade and commercial opportunities for Afghanistan and the region’.  The ‘New Silk Road’ narrative, whereby Afghanistan will ‘regain its historical role as a land-bridge between South Asia, Central Asia, the Middle East and Eurasia’  has some traction in India (although there is also widespread scepticism of its feasibility regarding the routes).

Indian hostility towards the Taliban has created widespread doubt about the existence of any ‘moderate’ Taliban and scepticism of the extent to which the Taliban can be separated from Al Qaeda. Pakistan claims that India via an unfair role of its NGOs and the consulates in Afghanistan, has been mischievously trying to disconnect Pakistan with Afghans.

This has led India to be dubious about Western suggestions of reconciliation or political settlement with the Taliban. While major doubts remain, some Indian opinion-formers have argued in favour of the decentralization of Afghanistan’s system of government – were any process of reconciliation to be successful, it would be likely to involve some form of devolved government.But India has its devious links with the Northern Alliance and Fazul ullah group in Afghanistan,who  have been posing much difficulties for propelling the Afghan peace dialogue that Pakistan has been trying to move forward.

And yet Pakistan  invited the Indian foreign minister Sushma Swaraj to participate in the Heart of Asia-Istanbul Conference held in Islamabad on Dec 8-9.Pakistan rightly believes that only India’s positively taken approach towards Afghanistan, can lead to the boulevard of peace.The Indian government must play its positive role in Afghanistan.

The Balochistan issue

India has been promoting Balochistan insurgency movement to counter or pressurize Pakistan regarding its Kashmir policy. The involvement of India’ Raw in Balochistan is no more a secret.

India established nine training camps along the Balochistan Afghan border to provide military training to the members of the Baloch Liberation Army. India is  also alleged for providing armed and economic assistance to Baloch rebels. The aim is to create hurdles in the construction of the Gwadar port. The former Governor of Balochistan, Owais Ahmed Ghani stated “India is not only helping annoyed people with weapons, but is training them as well, India is financing the insurgency and Afghan warlords and drug barons of arming the militants’’.

India has many interests as a major regional and hence forth future growing world power cannot ignore Balochistan as she is the door to the central Asia countries and apart from being major energy source is the gate way for central Asian and Iranian energy and trade corridor. India seems to use the Baloch factor as a balance in her turbulence relations with Pakistan in many fronts most notable factor is J&K.This Indian negative trajectory, needs to be stopped.

Challenges before India and Pakistan

Consider. India, if it is to sustain its high growth rate, will require sharply increased imports of oil, gas, and industrial raw materials from West and Central Asia, for which Pakistan is the most feasible conduit. Similarly, India’s economic growth, which has so far been based on the domestic market, will, in the foreseeable future, require rapidly increasing exports for which Pakistan and other South Asian countries are an appropriate market.

Thus, the sustainability of India’s economic growth requires cooperation with Pakistan. Conversely, peace and cooperation with India is essential for Pakistan if it is to achieve and sustain a GDP growth rate of about 8 percent, overcome poverty, and build a democracy based on a tolerant and pluralistic society.

It is clear that governments in India and Pakistan will need to move out of the old mind-set of a zero-sum game, in which gains by one side are made at the expense of the other. Now the welfare of both countries can be maximized through joint gains within a framework of ‘cooperation rather than conflict’.

South Asia today stands suspended between the hope of a better life and fear of cataclysmic destruction. The hope emanates from its tremendous human and natural resource potential: the rich diversity of its cultures that flourish within the unifying humanity of its civilization. The fear arises from the fact that South Asia is not only the poorest region in the world but also one whose citizens live in constant danger of a ‘nuclear holocaust’.

At the same time, the structures of state and the fabric of society are threatened by armed extremist groups who use hate and violence to achieve their political goals. It can be argued therefore that interstate peace in the region rather than enhanced military capability is the key to national security, indeed, to human survival. We will propose in this chapter that peace between India and Pakistan not only is necessary for sustaining economic growth but also is vital for building pluralistic democracies and thereby sustaining the integrity of both states and societies in the region.

States in South Asia have primarily pursued “national security” through the building of the military capability for mass annihilation of each other’s citizens. It is not surprising that South Asia is the poorest and yet the most militarized region in the world.  It contains almost half the world’s poor and has the capability, even in a limited nuclear exchange, to kill more than 100 million people immediately, with many hundreds of million more dying subsequently from radiation-related illnesses. The arms race between India and Pakistan (two countries that account for 93 percent of the total military expenditure in South Asia) is responsible for this cruel irony.

In order to facilitate the emergence of Peace in the region as early as possible, the following process could be considered pivotal by all parties concerned: All these issues can serve as building blocks for strengthened political and security cooperation in the future.

India needs to be serious about taking its responsibilities in the region as an emergent global power, both by working toward ensuring a stable and secure backyard and by recognizing that a strong and growing South Asia can accelerate India’s own ascendancy as an emerging global power.

Difficult points of contention on long-standing traditional security disputes of course remain big challenges. Yet as long as these countries are willing and able to compartmentalize those issues and move forward on areas where cooperation is desirable and achievable—and there do appear to be positive trends in that direction—the prospect of building a viable security architecture for South Asia need not remain a pipe dream, however “nontraditional” its building blocks may be.

The Indian establishment’s desire of establishing a trade route in Afghanistan via Pakistan is tantamount to putting cart before the horse.Without seeking a peaceful conflict resolution on Kashmir between the Kashmiris, India and Pakistan, such an Indian objective seems unthinkable and unsustainable.

Justifications for India-Pakistan improved bilateralism

South Asia is facing multi-dimensional security challenges both traditional and non-traditional. Notwithstanding these political challenges, there exists an enormous untapped regional economic potential.

Political will and political action will certainly play their part in breaking the vicious circle of conflict, insecurity and underdevelopment in South Asia. Economic policies should be geared not just to maximise growth, but also to address the distributional or political factors that lead to conflict. Regional states have an opportunity, through regional integration, to work together to manage their numerous common regional issues.

Domestic as well as external factors have played their role in influencing the process of policy formulation in South Asia. With the stakes of catastrophic destruction as high as they are in the region, any nonzero probability of nuclear war should be unacceptable. Yet, the defining features of the nuclear environment in South Asia make the probability of an intentional or accidental nuclear war perhaps higher than in any other region of the world.

In contrast to the preoccupation of governments to achieve “national security” within a paradigm of conflict, the citizens of even adversarial states share a common concern for human security:

They seek security from the threats of war, religious extremism, economic deprivation, social injustice, and environmental degradation. Bridging this gap between the preoccupations of state and civil society is necessary to maintain the social contract that underlies the writ of the state and sustains national integrity. Thus, establishing a new framework of lasting peace for the provision of human security to civil society is essential for the stability of states in South Asia. Never before in history was the choice between life and comprehensive destruction as stark as it is today. The question is, can we grasp this moment and together devise a new path toward peace, freedom from hunger, sustainable development, and regional cooperation?

There is no secret that the past Indian governments have been engaged in utilising the track-2 diplomacy as regard the issue of Kashmir.This exercise must,once again ,be continued on this inevitable subject, without losing the progress made in the past.

Conclusion

South Asia is one of the most important regions of the world. It has one fifth population of the world, covers an area of 5.22 million square kilometres and is home to two nuclear weapon states: India and Pakistan. Other important South Asian countries include: Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, Afghanistan, Sri Lanka and Maldives. The region’s economic growth has made it a big global market. Growth in South Asia rose to an estimated 5.5 percent in 2014 from a 10-year low of 4.9 percent in 2013. Regional growth is projected to rise to 6.8 percent by 2017.But unfortunately,the whole future of South Asian prosperity has been eclipsed by the Indo-Pak rivalry on certain issues that require to be addressed.And unfortunately, owing to the tensed relations between India and Pakistan, the Saarc forum could not flourish to a progress that was anticipated from it.

The South Asian leaderships must learn the fact that if they would delay in changing the fate of the region,they would make a serious delay in changing the fate of its citizenry who thinks that we, India and Pakistan have arrived at the end of the epoch when we could hope to conduct our social, economic and political life on the basis of emerging needs of this region.

The third para of the joint statement– issued at the end of Indian External Relations Minister Sushmsa swaraj meeting with the prime minister of Pakistan Mohammad Nawaz Sharif and foreign affairs advisor Sartaj Aziz on Dec 9 says both sides, accordingly, agreed to a Comprehensive Bilateral Dialogue and directed the Foreign Secretaries to work out the modalities and schedule of the meetings under the Dialogue including Peace and Security, CBMs, Jammu & Kashmir, Siachen, Sir Creek, Wullar Barrage/Tulbul Navigation Project, Economic and Commercial Cooperation, Counter-Terrorism, Narcotics Control, Humanitarian Issues, People to People exchanges and religious tourism–builds  hopes that this time,the resumption of a comprehensive bilateral dialogue  will not succumb to suspension, as has been experienced in Past .

The virtual likelihood of Narendra Modi’s coming– to attend the Saarc summit to be held in Islamabad, next year– shows sign of positively changing mind set and understanding  between India and Pakistan.