By Syed Qamar Rizvi.
The successor to Ban Ki-moon, the current UN Secretary-General, will be decided over the course of 2016.The formal decision is taken by the UN General Assembly – but it always based on a recommendation by the smaller and more powerful, UN Security Council. The new Secretary-General will probably be chosen in September and will take office in January – coincidentally, the same month that a new US president will be sworn in.
The selection criteria
By tradition, the UN operates an informal system of regional “rotation”, when it comes to choosing its next Secretary-General (SG). This time around, it is deemed to be the turn of Eastern Europe. There has also never been a female SG – and most countries seem to agree that it is high time that this should change. In a new development, the President of the General Assembly and the President of the Security Council “will offer candidates opportunities for informal dialogues or meetings with the members of their respective bodies…these can take place before the Council begins its selection by the end of July 2016 and may continue throughout the process of selection,” according to the letter.
“The process is started and the wish is that the membership, for the first time in UN history, is included totally in the discussion of the next Secretary-General,” Mr. Lykketoft, the GA’s president said, adding that he thinks “this is a watershed in the way that we are doing things.”
Though apparently the pendulum swings towards the East European region; but East Europe no longer exists as a political group since all its members, except Belarus, Ukraine and Russia, have joined or are in the process of joining Nato or EU or both. As a permanent member, Russia cannot be a candidate. Belarus and Ukraine would be unacceptable. Thus politically an East European candidate will in fact be a candidate from a West-dominated Europe.
The brewing competition
Since East is now West, a number of West European candidates have also entered the race. Among them, Portugal’s former prime minister Gutierrez and Helen Clark, former New Zealand prime minister. John Bolton the US representative to the UN said privately that the US could not have a UN secretary-General from a country that had has always opposed the US on the world stage. The General Assembly president said another two candidates are expected in coming weeks, meaning that it is likely that eight candidates will address the General Assembly in mid-April. Significantly, this will happen before the Security Council makes its considerations, which is why, Lykketoft argues, the consultations could be potentially game changing.
The prospective candidates
To date, the six official candidates, including Bokova, are: former Croatian foreign minister Vesna Pusic, former Slovenian president Danilo Turk, former Macedonian foreign minister and former UN General Assembly president Srgjan Kerim, Montenegro’s deputy prime minister and foreign minister Igor Luksic, as well as former Moldovan foreign minister Natalia Gherman
The new process means that this time candidates will have two hours each to engage with the General Assembly in informal interactions beginning April 12. While the informal consultations are new, Lykketoft said the 193-member assembly would still elect the secretary-general “after a proposal brought forward by the (15-member UN) Security Council”.
The 193 Member States of the United Nations will for the first time be included “totally” in the selection of the next UN Secretary-General, the President of the General Assembly said today, pledging to make the process as transparent and inclusive as possible..
Politicking is already under way, with pressure building for what would be two historic firsts: a female candidate from Eastern Europe, a region that has never had a turn at the top of the U.N. Some experts hope if a woman is at the helm, there will be a greater focus on conflict prevention and sustainable peace at a moment when the U.N. is embroiled in sexual abuse peacekeeping scandals, confronting growing challenges from terrorism and facing a refugee crisis around the globe.
But finding an Eastern European woman that Russia and the U.S. — both permanent members of the Security Council that have the ability to veto — can agree on could be a major challenge, particularly with ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Syria. John Bolton the US representative said privately that the US could not have a UN secretary-General from a country that had has always opposed the US on the world stage.
The Women’s race
Interestingly the search is on for a woman from Eastern Europe. And it just so happens that two of the strongest candidates are Bulgarian. The first is Irina Bokova, who is currently head of UNESCO, the UN agency dealing with Science, Culture and Education. The second is Kristalina Georgieva, the current vice-president of the European Commission.These women have been nominated by the Bulgarian government.
The few provisions made by the Charter leave significant room for interpretation and expansion of the position, and each secretary-general has had to respond to the political landscape of their time. Much of the role is shaped by discretion and judgment; the secretary-general must balance their responsibility to the concerns of member states against the maintenance of the impartiality that has led to the office being called “the world’s most reputable intermediary.” The New York Times has endorsed German Chancellor Merkel for the post. But, since Germany (like Japan, India and Brazil) aspires to a permanent Security Council seat, it probably appears that Merkel may not become a defacto candidate.
The unique job of the Secretary General
The UN Charter describes the secretary general as the “chief administrative officer” of the world organisation who also performs “such other functions” as are assigned to him by the UNGA, the Security Council and the Economic and Social Council. Importantly, the secretary general has the authority “to bring to the attention of the Security Council any matter which in his opinion may threaten the maintenance of international peace and security”.
A secretary-general is uniquely placed to use their “good offices” to act as a mediator in international disputes, largely due to the role’s high degree of autonomy. But this authority of the secretary-general to act without explicit Security Council authorization was won only gradually. It took decades of careful diplomacy and good timing to grow this independence, which, though it can be an asset to the international community, has occasionally drawn the rebuke of more powerful member states who may be uncomfortable with the idea of the leader of the United Nations as an independent actor.
Another function of the role is its ability to direct the attention of the United Nations. The Charter explicitly requests that the secretary-general report to the General Assembly annually, and this report has grown to be used as a tool to influence conversation and draw attention to particular causes. The Charter also empowers the secretary-general to bring any matter thought to threaten international peace and security to the attention of the Security Council, and this has been another avenue for secretaries-general to guide UN efforts.
Great expectations from the new SG
It is generally believed that many big names have been associated with the UN, albeit not surprisingly,no one has remained so instrumental in wielding the decades old conflict resolutions of Palestine and Kashmir.The major failure of striking such a deal on world’s big issues gravely influencing the fate of peace is that the five permanent members of the UNSC do not exercise a unanimous political will to resolve these issues. And because of unjust veto’s intervention, the progress in this regard, has become an enigma. This is also an undeniable fact that the secretary generals seem to have been largely influenced by the policies and synergies of the P5.
But today world needs such a person who as secretary general should be one who may not be influenced by the P5 politics.And undoubtedly against this backdrop,the choice for the GA members may naturally and reasonably swing towards such a personality who has a strong determination to play a significant role in uplifting the status of international law, thereby making a dynamic stand on long awaited conflict resolutions of Kashmir and Palestine.
Obama’s aspiration
According to the Al Jarida report, President Obama wants to be appointed Secretary-General of the United Nations after he leaves the White House, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is working to thwart his ambitions.
Al Jarida has Netanyahu exclaiming, “Is it not enough that we have had to live through eight years of Obama’s rule, in which he ignored Israel? Now he wants to be in a position to cause us difficulty in the international arenas?”
UN member countries, including Australia, will be required within weeks to formally nominate a candidate as part of a British-inspired UN resolution to inject more clarity into the selection of the world’s most powerful diplomatic role.
With the five permanent members of the Security Council having a veto over potential candidates, Mr Kevin Rudd(an ex prime minister of Australia) remains a possible compromise candidate even if he is not officially put forward by the Australian government.
