By Syed Qamar Rizvi.
A day after Prime Minister Narendra Modi warned “blood and water cannot flow together,” Pakistan has declared that if India opts out of a key water-sharing agreement, it would amount to “an act of war.”Water sharing, transparency and collaboration are the pillars on which the unique Indus Waters Treaty was erected in 1960.
Islamabad’s recently moved solicitation regarding the Indian violation before an international arbitral tribunal is an index of the Indian policy of playing with water shenanigans despite a treaty that is a colossus among existing water-sharing pacts in the world. The fact of the matter is that being an upper riparian state, India has to strictly adhere to the stipulations laid down under the said treaty.
In Asia, the vast majority of the 57 transnational river basins have no water-sharing arrangement or any other cooperative mechanism. Though through this comprehensively drafted Treaty both India and Pakistan have a balanced water sharing mechanism, there yet appear some windowing misunderstandings between the two sides.
Significantly, India’s treaties with Pakistan and Bangladesh are the only pacts in Asia with specific water-sharing formulas on cross-border flows. They also set a new principle in international water law. The 1996 Ganges treaty set a new standard by guaranteeing delivery of specific water quantity in the dry season. But unfortunately so far this approach has not been proactively adopted by India’s government as regard to the Indus Basin Water Treaty.
In 1951, Indian Prime Minister Nehru, whose interest in integrated river management along the lines of the Tennessee Valley Authority had been piqued, invited David Lilienthal, former chairman of the TVA, to visit India. Lilienthal also visited Pakistan and, on his return to the US, wrote an article outlining his impressions and recommendations (the trip had been commissioned by Collier’s Magazine-international water was not the initial aim of the visit).
After three weeks of discussions, an outline was agreed to, whose points included: determination of total water supplies, divided by catchment and use;determination of the water requirements of cultivable irrigable areas in each country; calculation of data and surveys necessary, as requested by either side; preparation of cost estimates and a construction schedule of new engineering works which might be included in a comprehensive plan.
In a creative avoidance of a potential and common conflict, the parties agreed that any data requested by either side would be collected and verified when possible, but that the acceptance of the data, or the inclusion of any topic for study, would not commit either side to its “relevance or materiality.”
The Indus Water Treaty seems to have addressed both the technical and financial concerns of each side, and included a timeline for transition. The main points of the treaty included (Alam, 2002): an agreement that Pakistan would receive unrestricted use of the western rivers, which India would allow to flow unimpeded, with minor exceptions provisions for three dams, eight link canals, three barrages, and 2500 tube wells to be built in Pakistan a ten-year transition period, from April 1, 1960 to March 31, 1970, during which water would continue to be supplied to Pakistan according to a detailed schedule a schedule for India to provide its fixed financial contribution of $62 million, in ten annual installments during the transition period additional provisions for data exchange and future cooperation.
Although the two countries have been managing to share the waters albeit with some major differences that Pakistan government has so far been showning over India’s construction of Wuller Barrage, Baglihar Dam and Krishanganga dam that India has bulit , and has been building on the Indus tributaries that seat in the IHK.The experts say that the agreement is one of the most lop-sided with India being allowed to use only 20 percent of the six-river Indus water system. Pakistan has also recently sought an international arbitration if India sought to build hydro power projects on the Jhelum and Chenab rivers.
Despite the fact that the agreement has been seen as one of the most successful water-sharing pacts, the current tension between the two South Asian neighbours might well lead to a flashpoint. The Security and Strategic affairs experts are of the view that future wars could well be fought over water.
But one cannot overlook the fact that the well defined characteristics of the Treaty set a precedent of cooperation between the two countries–accompanied by an emblem of confidence building measure–vindicated by the fact as it is the only treaty to have survived three wars and other hostilities between the two countries.
India has developed different Hydroelectric Power Projects (HPP), with the cross installed capacity of 2456.20 MW after signing Indus treaty, however the total electricity demand of IHK is 1589 MW. India has also developed several run-of-the-river projects. Moreover, other four projects, MW Uri-II, 120 Sewa-II, 45 MW Nimo Bazgo and 44 MW Chutak Hydro electric projects that have been completed in early 2012.
A strategy of implementing CBMs regarding the water dispute between the two sides, India and Pakistan can be virtually applied via invoking Article VII of the treaty which focuses on future co-operation between the two countries by mutual agreement to the fullest possible extent.
To further translate this into the best practices in managing shared water and the Baglihar Dam Judgment in 2007 are the guiding principles to develop consensus to make treaty 100% transparent in order to avert any potential conflict and pitch a win-win solution for both countries.
In this regards after efforts of three years and in-depth discussion and deliberation with Indian water and energy experts, intelligentsia, environmentalists and other experts during series of various dialogues held at New Delhi, Islamabad, Bangkok and Dubai, following recommendations have been unanimously reached that offer win-win doable, practical solutions, already replicated in Nile(Egypt) and Danube River Basins(a water distribution system between Central and Eastern European states):
1-Recognizing that Indus Water Treaty is evidently the most successful Confidence Buildings Measure (CBM) between the two countries, India has the right to use provisions granted in annexure ‘D’ and ‘E’ nevertheless there is a need to make treaty more transparent by using state-of-art information communication technology tools.
2-To remove mistrust on data exchange, install satellite based real-time telemetry system in IHK Kashmir at a minimum 100 loctions for monitoring water quality and quantity.
3-There is a need to setup an independent office of Indus Water Commission(IWC) comprising neutral experts outside of South Asian region, having unblemished record and integrity. This may also include experts from various international agencies such as the World Bank, the UNEP and the EU, etc. This independent commission of experts shall work directly under the UN to monitor and promote sustainable development in Kashmir and HP.
4-The Independent IWC will also arrange real time data of miner, major tributaries and at all head-works, dams, etc. by website including three dimensional models of dams, three-dimensional model to represent of geometric data of dams (flood storage+ Run of River Hydropower projects) for clarity for the global community.
5- It was agreed that environmental threats do not respect national borders. During last three decades, the watershed in IHK is badly degraded. To rehabilitate watershed in IHK and Himachal Pradesh (HP), both countries are to take initiative for joint watershed management in these two states.
6-To rehabilitate watershed in IHK and HP, an environmental impact assessment is the best instrument to assess the possible negative impact that a proposed project may have on the indigenous environment, together with water flow in rivers .The United Nations Economic Commission for Europe’s Convention on Environmental Impact Assessment in a Transboundary Context provides the best legal framework for Transboundary EIA for sustainable flow in Indus Rivers System, so that India should share TEIA before physical execution of any project including hydropower.
7-Glaciers are important and major source of Indus Rivers System. To preserve these glaciers, there is immediate need to declare all Himalayan Glaciers as “Protected Area” including immediate demilitarization from Siachen to preserve this second longest glacier of planet to fall in the watershed of the Indus River.
Technically, India does not have the resources, capacity or infrastructure to handle the increase in water in case the Indus Waters Treaty is dissolved. Ashok Swain, a teacher at the department of peace and conflict research in Uppsala University Sweden noted that India did not have enough storage to create supply problem for Pakistan immediately.
As for India’s revocation of the treaty, this seems an unlikely scenario since the treaty has survived three wars between the two countries. Although the Modi government in India has raised the issue, saying that for a treaty to work there had to be “mutual cooperation and trust” between the two sides, this seems to be more pressure tactics than any real threat to review the bilateral agreement.
And the idea that India can intimidate Pakistan by threatening to cut of river waters is nothing new; past is honeycombed with such envious Indian reflections. It has arisen before every major conflict. And it goes without saying that a unilateral abrogation as India threatens to do would also attract criticism from world powers, as this is one arrangement which has stood the test of time. Nonetheless, an insight given into the preamble of the treaty gives enough light to the understanding that India cannot unilaterally exercise a revocation of the treaty.
http://www.transboundarywaters.orst.edu/research/case_studies/Indus_New.htm
http://siteresources.worldbank.org/SOUTHASIAEXT/Resources/223546-1171996340255/BagliharSummary.pdf
