Resetting Pak-Russia Ties: ‘a Growing Power-Tapestry’

 

By Syed Qamar Afzal Rizvi.

 

Resetting Pak-Russia Ties:'a Growing Power-Tapestry'

 

While critically viewing that the post Cold War era was ushered in by a new game on the world’s chessboard, making rivals as friends; the relations between Moscow and Islamabad could not develop an enriched friendship during the past two decades. And yet a feeling– of resetting the ties beyond the scope of normalization — has had been profoundly registered by both the Russian and the Pakistani establishments.

It has been in this retrospect that the Pak army chief Gen Raheel Sharif’s visit to Moscow makes a new heraldry in the history of Pak-Russia relationship. The visit comes at a time, when the tensions between Pakistan and India have reached at its zenith. The felt- need of revitalization of Russo-Pak relations seems to have marked on a multi pronged level: development, defense, diplomacy and security. And of course, this growing partnership between the two sides is by all means a positive development for ‘regional peace and stability’.

Seen from the Russian perspectives– the post withdrawal of the Nato/ISAF forces from Afghanistan; the growing India-US relations; the possible rise of militancy in the Central Independent States(CIS) via ISIS; the Russia-West rivalry regarding the Ukrainian issue; the Russian interests in selling arms to Pakistan and most importantly Moscow’s prompt concern for Pakistan’s geostrategic position (pivotal for energy and economic route) –are the most driving justifications, espousing this partnership.

And from Pakistan’s point of view, the factors that ardently advocate Pak-Russia partnership are: the Indian aggressive diplomacy towards Pakistan, the growing ties between Washington and New Delhi, Pakistan’s Afghan syndrome , the need of countering a strategy vis-a-vis  India’s nuclear muscling against Pakistan ,and last but not least the Indian exploitation of the Kashmiri freedom cause. Moved by the growing dynamics of the expanding phenomenon of ‘globalization and convinced by the new economic-cum-military exigencies in a ‘multipolar world order’, the Pakistani establishment seems highly justified in having closed links with both China and Russia.

From this growing dialogue between Islamabad and Moscow, Pakistan would be importing the ‘aerospace technology’ from Russia. Both Moscow and Islamabad are agreed to hold the ‘military drills’. The Russian side is candidly pleased to extend its military cooperation with Islamabad by having an agreement to sale the MI-35 attack helicopters to Pakistan. The other areas of bilateral cooperation cover the heath, education, telecommunication and the energy sectors. Both the governments share mutual concerns regarding the cross-border terrorism,drug trafficking and the organized crime networks.

With regard to the diplomatic understanding, the two states have already formed a ‘consultative group’ in the UN, working on a ‘strategic dialogue’. Nevertheless, the ongoing diplomatic efforts between the two governments seem to cast a profound influence on the regional dynamics.

As for India, the growing Pak-Russia relationship is not be a ‘comfortable development’ since it may politically and diplomatically ‘affect the Indian morale’. The partnership would likely to change the course of Indian aggressive diplomacy toward Pakistan. (Unfortunately the Indian establishment yet seems to  have been appreciating the Cold War idee fixe, thereby isolating Pakistan from the East.)

So far as China is concerned the cementing Pak-Russia relations may provide some signs of relief in Beijing in that the ongoing development would pave the way for countering the influence of ‘centrifugal forces’ in the region.

As far as Afghanistan is concerned the revitalizing relationship would provide both the ‘caution’  and comfort . The caution is for the ‘terrorist networks’ while a feeling of comfort may be for the government in Kabul. The ‘non-state actors’ role would be rightly checked and discouraged because of this deal.

And of course for Tehran, the Pak –Russia friendship may be a good omen since Tehran already enjoys the benefit of its friendly relations with Russia. The Russian establishment has facilitated Tehran for its ‘pacification with the West’ via the proposed Iran-West nuclear deal.

Strategically, Pakistan correctly holds the view__ that the growing Chinese- Russian role in the south Asian affairs__ is the ‘key to resolving the present and future crises’ of the region. The time is ripe to change the Cold War ‘caveat’. The fact of the matter is that Pakistan’s foreign policy managers look forward to incorporating  a new equation of ‘power balance’ in the region .

Truly the most driving regional impact– beyond the scope of a deja vu– is the ‘emerging force of trilateralism’, evolving a binding relationship between China, Pakistan and Russia. It is positively believed that that  as a result of these combined efforts between the three states, the process of ‘regional interoperability’ regarding three leading orgainzations: the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation(SAARC),the Association of South East Asian Nations(ASEAN), and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization(SCO),would be positively enhanced. Pakistan may be given a ‘future proactive role’ in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization(SCO). At this juncture,  it appears that a stronger gravitation of Pakistan’s foreign policy comes in the direction of ‘East’  than moving towards the West-an astute ‘paradigm shift’ that is now adopted by Islamabad.

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