US-Russia recourse to peace diversion in Aleppo?

 

By Syed Qamar Rizvi.

 

The ongoing interplay– of centripetal and centrifugal forces in Syria seems– to have caused the peace prospects more complicated than ever. The United States and Russia have grappled over plans to halt the fighting in Syria, as resurgent Moscow-backed regime forces tightened the noose around the beleaguered city of Aleppo.

In Geneva, secretary of state John Kerry was once more locked in talks with his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov, but US officials warned that negotiations could not be a sucess without a breakthrough. Washington views Moscow to help clinch a ceasefire, get humanitarian aid to civilians and — eventually — set the stage for political talks to end a five-year war that has killed more than 290,000.

The twin powers backed- scenario reflects opposite sides in the civil war, with Moscow supporting Bashar al-Assad’s Syrian regime and Washington behind a coalition of rebel groups it regards as moderate. Senior US official travelling with Mr Kerry said he would not have flown out once again to new face-to-face talks with Mr Lavrov (the Russian Foreign Minister) unless he thought there was a chance of progress.

A US official symbolises the talks as “crisp and businesslike”, focused on specific technical details of how the ceasefire would be observed. In a break in proceedings, the US delegation was to update Washington on progress. But officials warned there was no guarantee of a final agreement before both men return home later on Friday, just four days after the pair met in China and failed to narrow their differences.

Ironically, Aleppo has served as a major rebel base since 2012, when the Syrian civil war really took off in earnest. In late September 2015, Assad’s forces began a concerted effort to retake the city. The above map shows their progress: By December, they had made significant advances around the city and, by February 5, had essentially surrounded it.

Assad’s forces, weakened by attrition and serious recruiting problems, were unable to accomplish this alone. Russian bombing, as well as Iranian troop deployments, was absolutely vital to Assad’s offensive in Aleppo (as well as similar gains in southern Syria, near Daraa).

“The operations in Aleppo Province have hinged upon heavy military support from both Russian warplanes and Iranian proxy fighters,” Christopher Kozak, a research analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, concluded.

Retrospectively,on 10 September 2016, Russia and U.S. concluded a deal on establishing a cease fire between the Syrian Assad government and a US-supported coalition of so-called ‘mainstream Syrian opposition rebel groups’ including umbrella group ‘High Negotiations Committee’ (HNC), effective from 12 September, while jointly agreeing to continue attacks on Jabhat Fateh al-Sham (former al-Nusra Front) and Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that Russia and U.S. had configured five documents to enable coordination of the fight against Jabhat Fateh al-Sham and ISIL and a revival of Syria’s failed truce in an expanded form.

But on 16 September, the heaviest fighting since weeks broke out at the outskirts of Damascus and air attacks elsewhere in Syria resumed. On Saturday 17 September, Russia accused groups supported by the US to have violated the ceasefire 199 times, and said it was up to the US to stop them and thus save the ceasefire. Later on 17 September, the US-led coalition with Danish, British and Australian aircraft bombarded the Syrian army near ISIL-dominated territory in northern Syria killing 62 Syrian soldiers, which for the Syrian government proved that “the US and its allies cooperate with terrorists”.While the US contended the bombs on Assad’s troups were by accident, Russia said it was on purpose.18 September, bombarding also in Aleppo resumed.

Monday 19 September, Assad’s government declared the ceasefire as ended, mainly because of the US-led coalition’s attacks on Assad’s troops. Soon afterwards a UN food convoy near Aleppo was bombarded or shot at, unclear was by whom. On the 3rd of October, the US has formally declared the suspension of diplomatic contacts with Russia over the Syrian situation, marking the end of the cease fire deal.

One week after the collapse of a tenuous ceasefire, tensions between the United States and the Russian-Syrian alliance appear to be at a boiling point, while the consequence of that political fall-out is “nothing short of a human catastrophe.”

At an emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) on Sunday, western powers blatantly accused Russia of “barbarism” and aiding the Syrian government in committing “war crimes.”

“What Russia is sponsoring and doing is not counter-terrorism, it is barbarism,” said Samantha Power, U.S. ambassador to the United Nations. “Instead of pursuing peace, Russia and Assad make war. Instead of helping get life-saving aid to civilians, Russia and Assad are bombing the humanitarian convoys, hospitals, and first responders who are trying desperately to keep people alive,” Power told the 15-member council.

A spokesperson from the Kremin rebuffed those accusations as “unacceptable,” while the UNSC’s Russian ambassador Vitaly Churkin reminded the council that it was the U.S.’ bombing of Syrian government forces on September 17th, and its failure to convince so-called “moderate” rebels to disassociate with the al Qaeda-linked Jabhat Fateh al-Sham (previously the al-Nusra Front), that “sabotaged” the peace effort.

This followed similar statements made by Syrian President Bashar Assad, who told the Associated Press last week that he “believe[s] that the United States is not genuine regarding having a cessation of violence in Syria.”

According to Kyle Orton, a research fellow at the Henry Jackson Society, Syria’s revolution is now unequivocally in the balance. He further points out that Aleppo– the last major urban—seems to have been holding of the mainstream armed opposition in Syria. If the political process– is to amount to anything other than a regime victory in all but name– the rebels have to hold Aleppo City. For its part, the regime, with Russian and Iranian help, has severely lessened the strategic threat from the insurgency already — for them to retake Aleppo City would kill it. Orton is blunt: “In short, the course of the entire war is in the balance with the fate of Aleppo.”

If the rebels succeed in breaking the siege then the pro-regime coalition will suffer a serious strategic setback. As Orton further notes, “the pro-Assad forces [are holding] out in northwestern Syria by some relatively tenuous supply lines through Hama and southern Aleppo.” If the rebel positions in Idlib Province and southwestern Aleppo are expanded to include areas of Aleppo City, Assad’s bases in the north come under serious threat, and with it Assad’s chance of crushing the rebellion entirely.

Needless to say — if the rebels get minor gains or they become successful in articulating a strategy of  maintaining the status quo in the city — then once again it would be none but the Jabhat Fatah al-Sham group that benefits the most. In leading the charge to rescue the besieged population while the world looks on, it would have irretrievably bound itself to the armed opposition in Northern Syria. The Assad-supportive groups aligning with Russia may pose a new paradigmatic challenge to any peace prospects in Aleppo. And that is a scenario– that benefits no one : not the mainstream rebels and most of all, not Syria’s long-suffering people—and not those holding the prospects of any combined US-Russia operation against the rebels, and most of all, nor Syria’s long-suffering people.

http://www.asianage.com/international/us-russia-tussle-over-syria-deal-474

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S.%E2%80%93Russia_peace_proposals_on_Syria

http://www.vox.com/2016/2/16/11020140/russia-syria-bombing-maps

http://www.commondreams.org/news/2016/09/26/while-russia-and-us-point-fingers-aid-groups-warn-aleppo-slowly-dying

http://www.rferl.org/a/islamic-state-syria-aleppo-siege-change-war/27900375.html

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