Posted by Jaime Ortega.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
China and Russia are key players in US-Iranian strategic competition. As major world powers and permanent members of the UN Security Council, China and Russia play an important role in shaping sanctions and other aspects of international action in dealing with Iran’s nuclear program.
At the same time, they are both trading partners with Iran, and are arms exporters to the Islamic Republic. China has been a major importer of Iranian oil and both Russia and China have an interest in investing in Iran’s petroleum sector. This gives both nations mixed motives in dealing with the US and Iran.
These motives are compounded by the fact that Russia trades less with the US, and has exported nuclear technology to Iran, but has more reason to be concerned about Iran’s nuclear weapons programs. China is a major trading partner with the US, but is also caught up in a growing competition with the US for power and influence in Asia.
This helps explain why the formal position of both China and Russia is that they will only impose those sanctions required by applicable UN Security Council resolutions and not enact sanctions beyond those specifically mandated. They have so far interpreted the UN sanctions to mean they should place serious limits on the sale of critical new weapons to Iran, but have the potential option of making such sales to Iran in the future.
Both countries seek to maximize the benefits they can gain from the ongoing competition by refusing to commit to either player. Both nations have an interest in preventing or at least forestalling open hostility that will upset this balancing act, as any conflict could have an impact on their economies.
As a result, China and Russia seek to use their support of either side to advance their own positions, while at the same time minimizing the diplomatic costs of their actions. In the recent past, China has carefully tilted toward Iran, and Russia toward the West.
But China has also recently been more cautious in dealing with Iran, and Russia has increasingly tended to game the issue as part of a broader hardening in its relations with the US.The US seeks Chinese support in pressuring Iran to end its nuclear weapons program and limit arms transfers.
Iran urges China as a fellow non-Western power to resist what Iran believes areUS-led attempts to “dictate” China’s behavior. Iran also seeks to win Chinese support by billing itself as a secure and dedicated source of energy resources for a century of Chinese growth.
The resulting US and Iranian competition for influence over China and Russia plays out over proliferation and sanctions, trade and energy investments, arms sales, and each nation’s position in dealing with Afghanistan and Central Asia.So far, China has been able to maintain positive, if somewhat strained, relations with both the US and Iran by selectively supporting each side.
China is willing to use US competition with Iran an opportunity to expand its influence and test the boundaries of the US-led international order.
China:
China plays a key role in determining the success of US attempts to isolate Iran and is an important player in US-Iranian competition. The struggle to capture Chinese support plays out over issues like proliferation and sanctions, trade and energy investments, and arms sales. Iran seeks to win Chinese support primarily by billing itself as a secure and dedicated source of energy resources. Despite continued US pressure, China has been able to maintain positive, if somewhat strained, relations with both the US and Iran by supporting nuclear/arms sanctions on Iran diplomatically and by flouting them in practice. X. The Impact of China and Russia AHC 20.11.12 5
Russia:
The US and Iran compete for Russian support on an issue-by-issue basis. Russia does not yet consider Iran a security threat and it is not dependent upon Iran’s energy resources; rather it is a competitor. Instead of having one overriding interest in Iran like China, Russia has a multiplicity of interests, none of which is central to Russia’s global strategy. Russia’s ties with Iran involve nuclear technology and infrastructure sales, arms sales, and influence in the Gulf and Middle East. In the international arena, Russia has repeatedly tried to portray itself as an intermediary power in order to best position itself within the ongoing US-Iranian competition, all the while working to reap the benefits of selective cooperation with both sides.
China
China is an active player – as both a supporter and potential spoiler – in the ongoing struggle between the US and Iran. China exploits its dual-role as Iranian benefactor and permanent member of the UN Security Council and serves as a de facto gatekeeper to meaningful international sanctions on Iranian nuclear ambitions. The US is obliged to leverage the strength of its bilateral partnership with China to influence China’s position vis-à-vis Iran.
Iran seeks China’s patronage by offering economic cooperation, particularly in the energy sector; by stressing the need for mutual opposition to American dominance; and by encouraging China to take a leading role in shaping the future of the global system. China values its relations with the US too much to risk a meaningful breach, but it is willing to use US competition with Iran as an opportunity to improve its global strategic position. Evolving US-Chinese Relations
To read more about this piece go to…http://csis.org/files/publication/121129_srf_chapter_11_china_russia.pdf
