By Jaime Ortega.
No one would have said it a year ago. Just six months ago, on the eve of the European elections, not even glimpsed the polls. Today, however, is emerging with increasing firm strokes as an unavoidable reality. PODEMOS, the new party born of rage in the streets, young teachers who question the above and down system lighting in Transition breaks with the interchangeable hegemony of the PP and the PSOE. It shatters the bipartisan game and breaks like a cyclone in the political landscape. General elections were held today, they would be the winners with 28.3% of the vote.
The rise has been meteoric, like an explosion. A real big bang. Last May, the European elections, surprised the country that reap 1.2 million votes, 7.9% of the vote, which allowed to be released in the Strasbourg Parliament with five seats. Three months later, in late August, on an early survey course multiplied and almost tripled its intention to vote up to 21.2% – which was ranked as the third political option at only one point the PSOE and nine of PP. Today, surpasses not just socialists, but PP’s party.
As of today PODEMOS will present itself as the first political force in Spain, with an intention to vote almost four times higher than that obtained in Europe, surpassing PP by two points, which achieved 26.3% – and more than seven to the PSOE, which would collect only 20%.
With these results, the Congress of Deputies would be divided into three blocks – dominate the left, half a dozen mini-groups, none of which would reach the 5% representation.
The pacts to form a solid government would be very difficult. The two possibilities openly present enormous complications: PODEMOS-PSOE agreement or a large PODEMOS-PP coalition.
In both cases, the future of the Socialists presents itself as a dark shadow, on the verge of dissolution phagocytosed by the novel Push Party run by Pablo Iglesias. Doomed to final eviction from their traditional voters, for it would be unthinkable to go together right .
The scenario that draws the survey may well be described as historic. It has never happened in Spanish politics: Come out of nowhere and take the win in an instant, like a magnet attracting from discomfort, disappointment, the desire to change and even rupture of a large part of the citizenry.
The reasons for this dramatic turnaround are evident to all, although both the traditional formations have tried to ignore: the sacrifices imposed by blood and fire to overcome the crisis, rampant corruption of some while most drowning or lack of prospects for young people are few.
If the data harvested PP and PSOE are compared with those obtained three years ago in the general election, the collapse is drawn in all its dimensions.
PP 18 points left
The PP has been left on the road 18 points and the PSOE, almost nine. Current forecasts voter dynamite theory as a fixed floor, or sits much lower than previously thought. The collapse of the ruling training, PP, is perhaps the most striking. The 44.6% who clinched the victory with an absolute majority has vanished in just three years. Never before for citizens had lasted so little.
The rejection of the Spaniards to this party and its government is increasing. Just 14.6% pose Rajoy as having a good image, compared to 56.5% who neglects him as badly or very badly. And this group includes one in five of those who gave their vote. The percentage of those who reject Him fires among the youngest to over 68%. Rajoy is a president who clearly does connect with youth.
But if the image of the leader is ailing, the whole government is ruinous. Less than 10% value to be good compared to 63% who suspends him unreservedly, including one in three popular voting. And although these percentages become evident, Rajoy refuses to make changes. His stated intention is to exhaust the legislature with the same faces with which it began.
The drift of the PSOE in the last three years has been too painful. True, started from an electoral defeat, but away from starting the process of regeneration have only deepen their misfortune. The new leadership of Pedro Sánchez has been welcomed but may come too late, when the electoral base of the party as been undermined by populist forces newly minted.
Socialist voters, especially young people, are tired of waiting. The PSOE knew three decades to embody the spirit of change, but that thrust and that ability to engage with the street just shows nothing is left. Now, is can the training aims to lead this second postdemocratic transition and, for the moment, a large part of the population says to be is excited about their message.
The fact is that the new force led by Pablo Iglesias has entered the national political scene stealing followers left and right. With their appearance not only severely wounded are both great, also have good braking root expectations caressing smaller parties.
This is the case of United Left (IU) -4.2% – which lost nearly three points over the result achieved in general and becomes a mirage 10% of the votes polled in the European elections.
