By Sebastian Sarbu.
Iran is the key to stability in the Middle East, the only state upon which depend regional security and peace. By taking into account the development of the Islamic State, informally backed by radical religious and political circles in Iran, attacks on Israel and US military navy in the Mediterranean are being taken into consideration.The plan has been well conceived. At first there have been cleansing and extermination of Christian elements in North Africa and the Middle East, including the actions of the “brothers” from Boko Haram.Now Israel and American interests in the area are again the subject of threats which can destabilize the region. It is a complex situation, which from a geopolitical, geostrategic and economic standpoint looks identical to the situation which caused the Gulf War in the 90s. It’ s like a real war as hypothesis or a very possible an war game. Russia exploited this kind of regional crisis and it is unpredictable the next evolutions.
The elimination of UN sanctions on Iran nuclear program it is a step for stop escalation of any potential clash.
It is practically the main operating matrix with the same hidden operational forces playing the strategic game. It is clear that ISIS has the capacity to attack NATO and US warships in the Mediterranean. The area is close and for a regular army lonely wolves not needed. It they haven’t acted yet it is because Iran has opposed it, a country with which the Islamic State is acting in coordination. Iran has thus assured them that at the right moment it will attack American and NATO warships, since its military capabilities are more advanced than those of the Islamic State, with which it acts complementarily in the strategic field. Moreover, Iran is fond of its national sovereignty and aware of its geostrategic/strategic role in the region. Until the moment of escalation of the ever tensed military situation, Iran has started using the energy weapon and the means of economic warfare. Practically, Iran has been practising for the last several months a price war in the oil and energy field of interest, thus explaining the fluctuations of the price of oil on the market.
As a matter of fact, Iran is in an economic war with Saudi Arabia by using the energy weapon, its actions being coordinated with Moscow’s. Russia had accused several times Saudi Arabia that it generates the energy crisis and chaos through certain mistakes and arbitrary interventions. Even though done via unofficial channels, such as the voices of technocrats, we are aware of how serious the situation is and how important are the interests that are connected to this both strategic and complicated area of the world.
Iran is Russia’s strategic ally in the region, as Saudi Arabia is the ally or strategic partner of the USA. From this stem the rivalry and competition which can turn into direct confrontation. Iran is using the economic weapon until the military confrontation with American and NATO forces, seeking to profit geostrategically from blocking the Hormuz Strait, which would be a serious blow to the entire Euroamerican economy.
This objective of the Iranian leadership has been pursued for a long time.This is indirectly encouraged by Russia, which has always been an advocate for Iran, with the purpose of controlling the political and military situation of the balance of forces in the region and of profiting economically from it.
Recently, Iran has launched rocket attacks against several American ships close to its territory (the Hormuz Strait). The United States have accused Iran of dangerous actions and have hardened the sanctions regime imposed on this country in the field of rocket acquisitions.The offensive continues and the threatening Rohani has announced the industrial development of a new generation of rockets as a response to US sanctions.
The execution of the 47 terrorists in Saudi Arabia is the icing on the cake in the matter of the increasingly tense relationship between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
The execution of the Shiite leader of Iranian origin Al Nimr has provoked a bellicose reaction from Iran, which warned that Saudi Arabia will pay a heavy price for this crime. The consequences of this last destabilizing and miscalculated action are particularly serious for the future evolution of the regional security and peace.First of all, a generalized military conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran can begin at any moment and it will be preceded by an economic blockade as a form of retaliation, on the background of increasing tensions and violence between Sunnis and Shiites. Sabotaging external trade has been practised in international relations in the last couple of years, if only to give Turkey as an example.
Moreover, Iraq threatens with retaliation against Saudi Arabia. Irak was a favorable space for proliferation of the islamic and international terrorism who not have a good, safe and responsible governance.
An unprecedented case, there have been protests even in Indian Kashmir.
It is worth noting that these social protests, going even up to the diplomatic and government levels, are being organized by the Shiite community, which comprises Nigeria, Bahrain, Syria, India, Iraq, the UAE, Iran.
The most numerous Shiite community can be found in Iran, followed by Iraq. It is not worth neglecting that pro-Iranian Hezbollah, affiliated to Tehran, is a traditionalist Shiite organization which following the execution of the Shiite leader has threateningly condemned the USA and Saudi Arabia.
It is not a coincidence that Israel is increasingly targeted by terrorist attacks even in Tel Aviv, while Turkey has an extremely duplicitous external policy, the presidential discourse containing an increasing number of antisemitic statements. It is clear that there is regional instability in the Middle and Near East, as well as the whole of North Africa, with unpredictable consequences. Any scenario has to be taken into account, especially since the situation specific to the Gulf Wars can repeat itself.
The United States must not forget that it was precisely this sectarian conflict between Sunnis and Shiites that perpetuated the Iraqi civil war, by complicating it and generating terrorism to a certain extent.
These are well-defined ethic and religious communities. It is upon the wisdom of the USA to manage the new situation so that it does not turn into a new war theater and not even a conflict hotbed.
