By Jaime Ortega Simo
Dr. Stefano Casertano, Ph.D., M.B.A.
1) Is Al-Qaeda any longer a threat to the U.S. Government and citizens?
Al Quaeda has lost the operative ability to organize large attacks, and the financial negwork has been almost entirely disbanded. Moreover, the Arab revolts (or should we say neo-islamist revolts?) broke out in a period when Al Quaeda was touching a minimum in terms of popularity: people do not believe in its political project, given there has ever been any. Nevertheless, some loners may still possess the technical ability to ignite some fireworks, and a latent danger is present.
2) Could they still run operations in the U.S. or are they financially in trouble?
They could, but a new 9.11 or a new atocha is unlikely.
3) They are rumors that Al-Qaeda could partner with Los Zetas so they can get inside the United States and possibly plan an attack. How likely is this to happen?
Los Zetas is a criminal organization with a focus on drugs as revenue source. Al Quaeda is a terrorist network with an extremist message and private rentiers as financers. I do not really see that many affinities.
4) Who is Al-Qaeda’s new boss?
Hard to say, since the limit of fragmented networks (beneath many operative advantages) is that when the head is chopped off, the network cannot simply “reunite” to set up a new structure based on the new head. The organization will gain a stronger localist focus, hitherto will become less dangerous for the West.
5) Any other new terrorist organizations around there?
The Italian mafia franchises are becoming very dangerous and have extended their network to Northern Italy, Germany, France, Spain. They fish from a basin of unemployed and impoverished masses, and in Italy alone have some 140 billion euro yearly to invest. This is way more than what Al Qaeda ever had.
6) What does the future hold for Al-Qaeda?
Decline. The organizations has been checked by Islamists that now see a chance of claiming power through democratic access, after the revolts.
Jaime Ortega Interview: Stefano Casertano professor at International Relations at Potsdam University.
The Daily Journalist.
